Competition in Set Phillies’ Rotation
Starting in April and continuing through August, the young hurlers on this five-man staff will earn their spot on its front end, and one will probably take the ball on Opening Day for the 2018 Philadelphia Phillies.
Before the Future:
Based on today, tomorrow is a measured concept to foresee the challenges ahead.
In industries with payouts like sports, movies, television or music, athletes, actors, actresses, singers or musicians must guess management’s thinking. For instance, Jerad Eickhoff entered camp and took nothing for granted. He had to make the team despite being the number two in the rotation behind Jeremy Hellickson through September. In other words, they said nothing different to him from last March.
Pawing the mound dirt to form his landing spot, Hellickson satisfies himself before making another throw. And while pitching coach Bob McClure fingers the walkie-talkie, he hopes Hellickson can finish one more inning. In other words, the coach wants the next hurler to begin a new frame, but Hellickson is reaching his current pitch limit. Meanwhile, some fans can hear the sound of Helickson’s replacement in the bullpen. Whoosh! Pop!
When Opening Day arrives, Hellickson will be on the hill for the second consecutive April, but realistically he’s on his last one-year contract with the Phillies. And even if Scott Boras wasn’t his agent, the veteran head of the staff could find a multi-campaign agreement. Ergo, will one of the kids receive the assignment for ’18? Probably.
Hellickson will have a new employment address by July’s end after fetching a nice package. So if Roman Quinn isn’t healthy, Nick Williams doesn’t improve, or Dylan Cozens needs more seasoning, the Philadelphia Phillies may need an outfielder. In addition, however, to those possibilities, a left-handed bat with power or a southpaw reliever for the back end of the pen are other areas to consider.
Pitching for the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs, right-hander Zach Eflin will relearn how to be a starter without compensating for balky knees. But while he adjusts to his new advantage, his competition will be less daunting than the majors. On the other hand, righty Jake Thompson will most likely dominate the offenses in the International League again, but he must outperform Eflin to get the first nod. Remember, Thompson showed big leaguers way more respect than MiLB hitters: Too many walks put doubts in McClure’s mind. Ergo, inconsistency.
Highlights:
- Eflin: 7 Gms., 47 2/3 Inn., 3-2 and a 2.08 ERA after his first MLB start and before his three injury-related outings.
- Thompson’s last outings: 6 Gms., 34 1/3 Inn., 2-3 and a 3.41 ERA.
Eflin’s stats:
- 2-1 with a 2.70 ERA for 26 2/3 innings versus the Diamondbacks, Braves and Rockies.
- 1-2 with a 4.18 ERA for 23 2/3 frames against the Blue Jays (first-game debacle), Giants, Mets and Pirates.
- 0-3 with a 13.85 ERA for his final 13 innings before his season ended (not included in above bulleted statistics).
With four potential outcomes, Clay Buchholz could spend considerable time on the disabled list and/or struggle with his arm slot, which means he’d be here for four to six months. Or the moundsman could reach his full potential for a multi-summer deal, which would require a major financial commitment based on roughly 20 starts. In other words, if the youngsters are ready to handle and share the pressure, the Phils will explore Buchholz’s trade value. However, he could be good enough for a two-campaign contract in Philly if Eickhoff, Aaron Nola and Vince Velasquez need more development: Is a two-year return even possible?
Highlights:
- Buchholz’s last starts: 7 Gms., 34 1/3 Inn., 2-1 and a 2.36 ERA after his first start back in the rotation.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: “Nolan Ryan is pitching much better now that he has his curve ball straightened out.” – Joe Garagiola “I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is once in a while I toss one that ain’t never been seen by this generation.” – Satchel Paige
To be on the mound for game one of 2018, Velasquez would need a breakout 162 from beginning to season’s end. He’d have to mix his pitches and hone his secondary offerings. But what will he need most? Discipline.
For Nola, his control and health are the keys to fronting the starting staff next summer, and he showed that potential during his first 12 outings of 2016. He went 5-4 with a 2.65 ERA, which was a tantalizing sample of his capability.
Nola’s stats before his struggles:
- 3-2 with a 1.98 ERA for 41 innings versus the Reds, Padres, Brewers and Braves.
- 2-2 with a 3.41 ERA for 37 frames against the Nationals, Cardinals, Marlins and Tigers.
The other day, Quinn was on third base but wasn’t ready for a wild pitch or a passed ball, and Larry Bowa just shook his head in his chair behind the portable protective netting in foul territory. And as the outfielder was entering the dugout, Bowa threw his hands in the air and gave the rookie unsolicited advice with some “magic” words for flavoring. That’s right, while locals zero in on Quinn’s eye-popping speed and MLB opportunity, they miss when no mistake goes unnoticed or “unrewarded.” Yeah, Bowa cussed him out! But the point is McClure is just not this obvious.
Eickhoff matched Hellickson’s numbers in ’16 and already handled the two slot in the rotation for the entire campaign. In fact, they were the only two starters manager Pete Mackanin didn’t have a quick hook for. And even though it took him 18 months, Eickhoff has now added a solid pickoff move, which means he has the tenacity and dedication to lead the staff.
IN OTHER WORDS: “One of the beautiful things about baseball is that every once in a while you come into a situation where you want to, and where you have to, reach down and prove something.” – Nolan “The Ryan Express” Ryan
Pitching:
- Hellickson: 23 Gms., 189 Inn., 12-10, a 3.71 ERA, a 3.2 fWAR and a 1.15 WHIP.
- Eickhoff: 33 Gms., 197 1/3 Inn., 11-14, a 3.65 ERA, a 2.9 fWAR and a 1.16 WHIP.
Eickhoff’s stats:
- 5-8 with a 3.65 ERA for 103 2/3 innings versus San Diego, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Arizona, Minnesota, Colorado and Chicago (AL).
- 6-6 with a 3.65 ERA for 93 2/3 frames against New York (NL), Cleveland, St. Louis, Miami, Chicago (NL), Toronto, Los Angeles (NL), Washington and Pittsburgh.
Whether the game is in Allentown or Philly, each pitch and every play is important. And so is every outing for Thompson, Eflin, Velasquez, Nola and Eickhoff because their tomorrow is riding on it. And each solid performance is another step toward ’18. But if you don’t want to wait for next year and beyond, you don’t have to because each one of their starts will give you something to add every week to their tally. And what would that be? Glimpses.
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
* He had 21 starts.
Pitching:
- Hellickson, almost 30: 23 Gms., 189 Inn., 12-10, a 3.71 ERA, a 3.98 FIP, a 3.99 xFIP, a 4.15 SIERA, a 3.2 fWAR and a 1.15 WHIP.
- *Buchholz, 32.5: 37 Gms., 139 1/3 Inn., 8-10, a 4.78 ERA, a 5.06 FIP, a 5.32 xFIP, a 5.09 SIERA, a 0.5 fWAR and a 1.33 WHIP.
- Eickhoff, 26.5: 33 Gms., 197 1/3 Inn., 11-14, a 3.65 ERA, a 4.19 FIP, a 4.15 xFIP, a 4.05 SIERA, a 2.9 fWAR and a 1.16 WHIP.
- Nola, almost 24: 20 Gms., 111 Inn., 6-9, a 4.78 ERA, a 3.08 FIP, a 3.08 xFIP, a 3.29 SIERA, a 2.8 fWAR and a 1.31 WHIP.
- Velasquez, almost 25: 24 Gms., 131 Inn., 8-6, a 4.12 ERA, a 3.96 FIP, a 3.67 xFIP, a 3.62 SIERA, a 2.2 fWAR and a 1.33 WHIP.
Next: Bottlenecked Spots on the Phillies
- Eflin, almost 23: 11 Gms., 63 1/3 Inn., 3-5, a 5.54 ERA, a 5.48 FIP, a 5.36 xFIP, a 5.41 SIERA, a 0.1 fWAR and a 1.33 WHIP.
- Thompson, 23: 10 Gms., 53 2/3 Inn., 3-6, a 5.70 ERA, a 6.17 FIP, a 5.64 xFIP, a 5.68 SIERA, a -0.4 fWAR and a 1.51 WHIP.