Promotions for Phillies’ Prospects
While contending teams are buying veterans in July, tomorrow’s stars are making their cases for advancement to general managers like Matt Klentak of the Philadelphia Phillies between now and the trading deadline.
Make-or-Break June:
Sometimes, people confuse expectation, assumption and perception with good judgment and reality – known and unknown.
Under normal circumstances, Klentak’s preference is success for half a campaign to earn a promotion for the balance of this summer or the next Opening Day. The GM knows a player with a hot April can also have a cold May because most hitters are streaky. In other words, the regular’s numbers overall can deceive a casual observer positively or negatively if that fan has a preconceived notion. For instance, Tommy Joseph is batting .257 but his average is .296 from May 1 through June 12.
If a general manager has a productive regular at a position, he’s going to concentrate on the squad’s weaknesses, not its strengths. Ergo, since Joseph has a 2017 projection of .257 with 26 homers and 84 RBIs, he is blocking Rhys Hoskins. But keep in mind, Triple-A production is not a guarantee against major league pitching.
When the parent club has an injury, the opportunity to impress management is at hand for the Triple-A stud. For example, Jim Thome was blocking Ryan “The Big Piece” Howard at first base. Ergo, Howard did not advance but Thome’s trip to the disabled list changed the equation.
Despite an 11-12 mark for April, Twitter users were in mid-season form with demotions: Why was Joseph still here and Hoskins at Lehigh Valley? Another tweet stated Cameron Rupp is a backup for Jorge Alfaro. And they didn’t forget about Andrew Knapp either because they loved his porn ‘stache (their words). Did they have a new career in mind for him?
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: “I think baseball is a great support to people who have emotional voids, gaps, emotional difficulties. That is to say: all of us. Those parts of us that don’t function well. Those parts of us that are sad or depressed—not every day. They can really use baseball. It isn’t just the child in a wheelchair or the shut-in senior citizen listening to the radio that needs the game. There’s part of us, part of everybody who’s a baseball fan, who needs the game at that level.” – Thomas M. Boswell
While some starters struggled in the opening month, May and June have been kinder to Joseph and Dylan Cozens. Now, demands for a demotion of Joseph have changed to calls to move him immediately. On the other hand, dominance in the first four weeks did not continue for Jeremy Hellickson and Alfaro.
April stats:
- Joseph: 19 Gms., 67 AB, 12 H, .179, 1 HR and 7 RBI.
- Cozens: 23 Gms., 81 AB, 11 H, .136, 4 HR and 15 RBI.
- Alfaro: 18 Gms., 72 AB, 24 H, .333, 3 HR and 12 RBI.
- Hellickson: 5 Gms., 30 Inn., 4-0, 1.80 ERA and 6 ER.
May and June stats:
- Joseph: 38 Gms., 135 AB, 40 H, .296, 9 HR and 25 RBI.
- Cozens: 37 Gms., 137 AB, 44 H, .321, 10 HR and 31 RBI.
- Alfaro: 30 Gms., 122 AB, 26 H, .213, 0 HR and 15 RBI.
- Hellickson: 8 Gms., 42 Inn., 1-4, 6.43 ERA and 30 ER.
Reaching the point of looking toward 2018, locals have posted three types of comments under 140 characters regarding Pat Neshek, Michael Saunders and Maikel Franco. What can we get for Neshek? Why is Saunders still on this team? Send Franco back to Triple-A.
Considering his options through July 31, Klentak has no minor league replacement for Franco, and the decision-makers want to monitor his progress daily. Meanwhile, the front office will disappoint the faithful by giving Saunders every chance to redeem himself during the next four weeks. Of course, trade talk will center around vets like Howie Kendrick, Joaquin Benoit, Neshek, Hellickson and Saunders if the right fielder increases his value. Despite, however, their troubles in April or May, regulars under club control from 2019 to 2022 will not be available at this early juncture without a strong offer or a guaranteed replacement.
IN OTHER WORDS: “I’m a baseball fan, but I’m not qualified to make baseball decisions, and I don’t want to pretend to be.” – Mark Walter
Regarding organizations contending for postseason berths, they will take stock of their current shortcomings, in-house solutions and affordable external options. In other words, they’ll try to keep their most promising youngsters in the pipeline and hope they have enough on the active 25 without gambling with a trade for a shot at a championship. They will wait until mid-July to determine their needs because they may have different requirements at that time. A lot can happen in three weeks.
Among the many improvements recommended by the fans for ’18, the long-term signing of third baseman Manny Machado is the most intriguing. Firstly, Machado won’t be a free agent until after 2018, and his excellence this year is a perception unquestioned by many locals. In other words, a comparison of Machado to Franco should reveal the difference between a star and a disappointment. Or does it?
Comparison:
- Franco: 58 Gms., 220 AB, 47 H, .214, 7 HR and 31 RBI.
- Machado: 57 Gms., 225 AB, 49 H, .218, 12 HR and 27 RBI.
Wondering about promotions for the top prospects in the farm system, fans can find a center fielder and a second sacker on the Triple-A DL, an outfielder with poor plate discipline, a right fielder waiting for a spot to open up in the second half, a first baseman currently blocked, a shortstop who is not ready yet and a catcher struggling since April. However, who is the one standout in line for a second-half advancement to the next level? Scott Kingery.
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Stats are through June 12.
According to Fangraphs, low walk rates are only acceptable for players with exceptional power numbers. Here are plate-discipline comparisons.
Plate discipline:
- Joseph: K% at 23.7% and BB% at 5.9%
- Hoskins: K% at 15.4% and BB% at 13.4%
- Cozens: K% at 32.9% and BB% at 7.9%
- Alfaro: K% at 31.9% and BB% at 2.0%
- Williams: K% at 30.2% and BB% at 3.4%
- Crawford: K% at 17.2% and BB% at 14.8%
- Kingery: K% at 16.7% and BB% at 9.5%
| Rating | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | 10.0% | 15.0% |
| Great | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Above Average | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Average | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Below Average | 22.0% | 7.0% |
| Poor | 25.0% | 5.5% |
| Awful | 27.5% | 4.0% |
Stats are through June 12.
Hitting:
- Joseph, almost 26: 58 Gms., 219 PA, a .257 Avg., a .306 OBP, a .455 SLG, a .198 ISO, a .296 BABIP, 10 HR, 32 RBI, a .761 OPS and a -0.3 fWAR.
Triple-A Hitting:
- Hoskins, 24: 63 Gms., 253 PA, a .298 Avg., a .395 OBP, a .591 SLG, a .293 ISO, a .305 BABIP, 14 HR, 49 RBI, a .986 OPS and a 1.2 WARP.
- Cozens, 23: 60 Gms., 240 PA, a .252 Avg., a .313 OBP, a .500 SLG, a .248 ISO, a .323 BABIP, 14 HR, 46 RBI, an .813 OPS and a 1.0 WARP.
- Alfaro, 24: 48 Gms., 204 PA, a .258 Avg., a .289 OBP, a .366 SLG, a .108 ISO, a .370 BABIP, 3 HR, 27 RBI, a .655 OPS and a 0.7 WARP.
- Williams, 23.5: 61 Gms., 235 PA, a .282 Avg., a .316 OBP, a .523 SLG, a .241 ISO, a .355 BABIP, 13 HR, 39 RBI, an .839 OPS and 1.8 WARP.
Double-A Hitting:
- Kingery, 23: 58 Gms., 264 PA, a .306 Avg., a .382 OBP, a .625 SLG, a .319 ISO, a .310 BABIP, 18 HR, 35 RBI, a 1.007 OPS, 3.2 WARP, 14 SB, 2 CS and an 8.7 Spd.
Pitching:
- Hellickson, 30: 13 Gms., 72 Inn., 5-4, a 4.50 ERA, a 5.79 FIP, a 5.84 xFIP, a 5.65 SIERA, a 0.0 fWAR and a 1.25 WHIP.