Justin Smoak hit the 1070th home run in the month of June, helping MLB hitters break the record for home runs in a month set in May of the 2000 season.
Every baseball fan knows that balls have been flying out of the park in record numbers this year. Hitters are launching big flies at a rate greater than at any time in the game’s history, even more often than during the high-offense era from the mid-1990s to early 2000s. On Friday, Justin Smoak was the man in the right place at the right time when he hit MLB’s 1070th home run in June, which set an MLB record for total home runs in a month. The previous record of 1069 was set in May of the 2000 season.
That 2000 season saw 47 players hit 30 or more home runs and 16 players hit 40 or more. We’re right about the halfway point of this season and there have been 45 players who have 15 or more long balls and 14 with 20 or more. This year’s individual home run numbers have a good chance to be very similar to the individual totals in 2000, right in the heart of the high-offense era.
Justin Smoak is one of those 14 players with 20 or more home runs. It’s been a surprisingly good season for Smoak. He was a big disappointment in Seattle after the Mariners acquired him in a trade with Texas during the 2010 season. In five seasons in the Emerald City, Smoak hit .226/.308/.384, with 66 home runs in 1943 plate appearances, an average of one home run every 29.4 plate appearances. This year with Toronto, Smoak has 22 dingers in 295 plate appearances, an average of one every 13.4 plate appearances. Today’s record-breaking home run was a three-run shot to left-center.
If this season’s home run trend continues, there’s a good chance the record for home runs in a month will be broken again in July and then again in August, as the temperature rises. It’s not only home runs that are increasing. Hitters are striking out at a record clip.
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The 2017 season is likely to be the greatest home run season ever and the season with the highest strikeout rate ever. Players are not walking at a record pace, but the MLB walk rate is 50th out of 117 seasons since 1901. This is baseball in 2017: home runs, strikeouts, and walks. These are the Three True Outcomes, which refers to events in which the defense is minimally involved.
At roughly the halfway point of this year, there are six players who have struck out, walked, or hit a home run in 50% or more of their plate appearances. The king of the Three True Outcomes is Joey Gallo, with 58.2% of his times at the dish ending with a base on balls, a whiff, or a dinger. Behind Gallo are Chris Davis (55.6%), Miguel Sano (55.2%), Aaron Judge (54.0%), Matt Davidson (53.4%), and Keon Broxton (50.7%). Five of these six players are striking out more than 35% of the time, yet they are still above average hitters because of their power and ability to walk.
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Aaron Judge is the big name on that list. He leads all of baseball in home runs, is second in walk rate and 13th in strikeout rate (out of 166 players who would qualify for the batting title). He also leads baseball in Wins Above Replacement. In an era in which the Three True Outcomes have never been more prevalent, the most valuable player in baseball is leading the way.