Milwaukee Brewers Zach Davies Somehow Keeps Winning
By David Hill
Milwaukee Brewers starter Zach Davies is tied for third in baseball with 11 wins heading into Sunday. Traditional wisdom would say he is having a good season on the mound. Well…
Right now, as we head into today’s slate of action, there are six pitchers tied for third in the majors with 11 wins. We have pitchers like Chris Sale and Max Scherzer in that collective. Ervin Santana‘s 2.99 ERA and 1.108 WHiP are the worst of that group, showing how dominant those six pitchers must be. And then, we come to Milwaukee Brewers starter Zach Davies.
Yes, Davies has those same 11 wins. However, it is harder to figure out how he has managed to be a part of that many Brewers victories. On the year, he has a 5.08 ERA and a 1.500 WHiP, striking out just 69 batters in his 102.2 innings. The opposition has posted a .291/.356/.487 batting line against Davies, as he has essentially turned every player he faces into Mookie Betts.
Delving into the advanced stats paints a similar picture against Davies. While Davies is a ground ball pitcher, the fly balls he has allowed have been troublesome. Of those balls put into the air, 10.3% of them have left the yard. Davies also has not been getting double plays at an increased rate, with his 11% double play rate exactly league average.
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These numbers would seemingly indicate a pitcher who is struggling to maintain a .500 record. In fact, the only pitcher with a worse ERA with a winning record, amongst those qualifying for the ERA crown, is Adam Wainwright. Julio Teheran is the only other starter with a winning record who has an ERA over 4.65.
So how has Davies managed to win 11 games this season? Quite simply, the Brewers have given him an impressive amount of run support. Heading into today, Davies has received 7.8 runs per game in support, trailing only Antonio Senzatela. Although Davies may be allowing 5.26 runs per game, including his unearned runs, the Brewers are more than making up for that with their offense.
Every year, there are pitchers who benefit from astronomical run support, while top pitchers barely receive any. This season, it is Davies turn to be the beneficiary of that support, allowing his personal won-loss record to look much better than it should.
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Zach Davies is tied for third in the majors with his 11 wins. He can thank the Milwaukee Brewers offense for that.