Chicago Cubs will overtake Brewers, win NL Central by end of season

Despite not playing as well as expected, the Chicago Cubs are just one game out of first place in their division. Don’t be surprised when Chicago comes out on top by the end of the season.

It’s July 21 and the Milwaukee Brewers sit atop the National League Central standings.

Baseball fans may be asking themselves “What year is this?” because this might be the biggest surprise of 2017 so far. But even though the Wisconsin club has led the division since June 7, the season – and playoff race – is far from over.

The Chicago Cubs are in the midst of a season turnaround and could be sitting in first place by the time they meet Milwaukee in a critical three-game series next week. As subpar as Chicago has been this year, the team is just one game out of first.

Don’t expect the Cubs to let off the gas pedal either.

Chicago already has a better team on paper than any other NL Central club; it has just dealt with lingering injuries and a roster full of underperforming players. Jake Arrieta, who was unstoppable two years ago, owns a 4.17 ERA. Anthony Rizzo is hitting just .254 despite providing power. Kyle Schwarber has been… well, really bad.

The pitching staff will likely rebound, and if Theo Epstein adds Yu Darvish into the rotation mix, the Cubs could win the division by more than five games, maybe even 10. Pitchers like John Lackey, Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks have all floundered this year, yet the team still boasts a 4.01 ERA.

Offensively, the lineup still looks intimidating from top to bottom. The team average is below .250, which isn’t ideal, but it still ranks 15th in runs scored thanks to the pop hitters provide. Chicago scored eight or more runs in four games during its current six-game winning streak.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee’s offense is in a funk, scoring no more than three runs in six of its seven games since the All-Star break.

Slugger Eric Thames has slowed down considerably, hitting just .189 across May and June, though he’s hit well in July. Jonathan Villar is still in a major slump, hitting .222 on the year with just 11 doubles and 99 strikeouts in 297 at-bats. Ryan Braun has played in just 46 games this year.

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Younger players have stepped up, notably Travis Shaw, Domingo Santana and Orlando Arcia, who are all hitting above .280 on the year. But as an inexperienced club, their ability to remain consistent could be questionable, whereas the Cubs are headlined by seasoned veterans.

Milwaukee’s pitching staff has been a major surprise, with Jimmy Nelson establishing himself as an ace. Chase Anderson has been just as good, sporting a 2.89 ERA across more than 90 innings. Similar to the offense, the question revolves around the staff’s ability to maintain its numbers.

This year will be somewhat of a deja vu of the situation from 2013. The Brewers have managed to maintain their position in the standings for more than a month now, but should slowly lose their grasp on first place, and could falter so much that they don’t receive a playoff berth.

Next: Brewers showing interest in Justin Verlander

But it was bound to happen.

If the Cubs don’t secure the division by October, it would be a huge failure, and – no offense to the Brewers, who have played well – borderline embarrassing.