From the outside, it would appear that Houston Astros owner Drayton McLane is a fan’s dream. McLane desperately wants his club to succeed, he’s willing to spend big money on star players, and he has displayed loyalty to those players, keeping them in the family for the vast majority of their careers.
As an Astros fan, you can feel pretty comfortable that if you buy a jersey sporting the name and number of your favorite young player, that jersey will remain current for a long time.
Unfortunately, sometimes McLane’s win-now attitude gets in the way of his club’s long-term needs. (more after the jump)
McLane’s Astros have a history of surges in the standings. Last season, the Astros stumbled out of the gate, falling 9.5 games back of first by Memorial Day. By the time the trade deadline neared however, they had worked their way to just 1.5 games off the pace. As a result, the Astros decided to hold onto veteran bats like Miguel Tejada and Carlos Lee, players that surely would have brought a nice return, but soon fell back to Earth, finishing 17 games back of the Cardinals.
In 2008, The Astros sat seven games under .500 and 13 games back at the All-Star break, then closed the year as one of baseball’s best clubs, going 42-24 from that point forward. This is a pattern that has haunted the Houston club since racing back from behind in 2004 to make an improbable playoff run and one year later coming back from the dead to secure the National League Pennant in 2005. In fact on June 22, 2005, the Astros were in fifth place, 13.5 games behind the leaders.
Since watching his team finish 40-18 in 2004, McLane has believed that his team is never out of the race. That belief has postponed a much-needed overhaul of the roster. The Astros cannot put off selling any longer.
Of course, McLane doesn’t necessarily see it that way.
Despite the struggles of the 2010 club, McLane was quoted in a recent Houston Chronicle article as saying “We’re still in it this year.” Wait, what?
Entering play today, the Houston Astros are sitting in fifth place in the NL Central, 12.5 games behind St. Louis (one game closer than they were on this date in ’05). They have won 26 games, just one more than last-place Pittsburgh. They have the third-worst record in all of baseball.
But unlike the 2004 or 2005 versions, this year’s club doesn’t have the talent to make a second-half push. The 2005 club featured Craig Biggio, Rogers Clemens, Andy Pettitte, and one of baseball’s best bullpens. Jeff Bagwell and Carlos Beltran lead the ’04 club, and Morgan Ensberg was a legitimate power threat in both seasons. But Biggio isn’t walking through that door, friends. Bagwell isn’t coming back either. Neither are Beltran or Brad Lidge or even Jason Lane, who hit 26 bombs in 2005, and neither are the 2005 versions of Lance Berkman and Roy Oswalt.
This year, we have already seen the face of the franchise, Oswalt, publicly ask for a trade. Berkman, another Astros lifer, has stated that he would be open to waiving his no-trade clause as well. The time is now for the Astros to begin a rebuilding process that is at least three years overdue.
Even if general manager Ed Wade can convince McLane that changes need to be made, and that will be no easy argument, the Astros won’t have much leverage in trade talks. Many of the high-priced players are now past their primes, yet still sport hefty contracts. McLane isn’t the type that likes to pay his big names to be playing for other teams.
In order for Wade and McLane to get reasonable prospect packages in return for guys like Oswalt, Lee, or Berkman, the Astros are going to have to eat a large chunk of money, and I just can’t see that happening. Making matters worse is that both Berkman (.237, 6, 29) and Lee (.223, 10, 38) are having terrible years and at their ages (34 and 34) they won’t be getting much better. Sure, Oswalt is still performing at a high level (5-8, 3.12 ERA 89 K in 92.1 innings), but he’s also due better than $30 million on his contract, not an easy thing to move.
It’s gotten so bad for Houston this year that only one player, outfielder Hunter Pence, has an OPS+ of better than 100, coming in at an ever-so-slightly better than average 101. Not only do the few big talents on this team have aging bodies and large contracts (good luck trying to peddle that combination), but the rest of the roster is largely devoid of marketable talent as well. There just isn’t going to be a host of bidders trying to get their hands on Pedro Feliz (.221 average, 2 HR), Jeff Keppinger (.284 average, .330 OBP), or Wandy Rodriguez (3-10, 6.09 ERA).
The Astros are stuck.
The only real trade option is pitcher Brett Myers. Myers is earning a modest $3.1 million this year and has a mutual option at $8 million for next season that contains a $2 million buyout. He’s pitched very well this year, going 4-5 with a 3.34 ERA. The problem is that having Myers on the team makes the Astros better, and McLane isn’t inclined to watch even a short-term drop-off in performance at the major league level, usually a necessary component to rebuilding.
Even with all the writing on the wall, I still can’t see McLane giving the go-ahead for Wade to overhaul the roster. McLane has too much stubbornness to concede defeat this year, and too much pride to pay other clubs to take his best players.
My guess is that while Houston might make a few minor moves, Oswalt, Berkman, and Lee will all be wearing Astros uniforms come August 1.
And we’ll have this same conversation next summer.