Well, here’s a big one.
As you’ve probably heard by now, lefthanded pitcher Cliff Lee and righthanded pitcher Mark Lowe have been traded from the Seattle Mariners to the Texas Rangers for first baseman Justin Smoak and three Double-A players.
It’s a classic rebuilding move by the last-place Mariners and a classic “win-now” move by the first-place Rangers.
So, where should we begin with this deal? Well, as I usually like to do, let’s start with the obvious.
Cliff Lee is a great, great, great, great pitcher, and I rarely, rarely, rarely, rarely repeat adjectives like that.
The guy has six walks in thirteen starts. He has a 2.34 ERA. He just pounds the corners of the zone with four very good pitches and dares hitters to do something with them. Usually, they can’t.
Putting up the sort of numbers he has in the AL makes him arguably the best pitcher in baseball, and certainly in the top five. He’s fantastic, and immediately improves the Rangers’ chances at winning this year.
Equally as obvious as his likely 2010 greatness is Lee’s nonexistence after 2010. He’s a free agent, the Rangers don’t have a finalized ownership situation yet, and given the likely astronomic interest in signing him, the likelihood of the Rangers outbidding the likes of the Yankees and retaining him for 2011 and beyond is slim. Given the park’s reputation, they may even have to throw some extra money in, which I don’t see happening.
(more analysis after the jump)
The Rangers also receive Lowe, a hard-throwing reliever who will miss the rest of the season after back surgery. He’s a solid middle reliever who lacks the second pitch necessary to be elite, but at least he gives the Rangers something to show for the deal post-2010.
It’s also worth noting that if they don’t resign Lee, they’ll get two compensation picks in next year’s supposedly deep draft, so that impacts Texas as well.
Seattle’s package is headlined by Smoak, who hit .209/.316/.353 with the Rangers this season. He has a stellar minor league track record, is one of the best defensive first basemen around, and has plenty of plate discipline (38 walks in 70 games). His struggles are largely due to a .238 BABIP thus far, which is bound to come up, particularly since he ropes liners at a well-above-average rate.
He does have trouble with lefties in all facets of the game, so that will be something to keep an eye on. Still, this seems like something of an Adrian Gonzalez situation, where the Rangers sold low on a top first-base prospect who didn’t tear the league up by storm the first time around.
The key prospect to go along with the 23-year-old Smoak is 21-year-old Double-A righty Blake Beavan, a huge pitcher who never walks anyone. If that sounds like current Mariner Doug Fister, it should–they’re very comparable.
Beavan has a good low-90’s moving fastball that he pounds the bottom of the zone with, and complements it with a solid change and a breaking ball that needs work. He’s walked just 12 batters in 110 innings and struck out just 68, but he gets grounders and, like Lee, the low walk totals mean teams have to hit him around to score.
Beavan has particular value to Seattle because they have a strong defense, so pitchers that pitch to contact work very well there. That’s why Fister has a 3.09 ERA.
The other pitcher the Mariners received was 25-year-old reliever Josh Lueke, who had 62 K in 38 1/3 across two levels, so he had so be doing something right. Lueke also has solid command and gets grounders. Every year there seems to be a reliever or two that shoot from A-ball to the majors out of nowhere, and he looks like that sort of guy. He throws a mid-90’s heater and good slider, and has been lights-out.
Still, any 25-year-old Double-A reliever isn’t exactly premium prospect material.
The final prospect involved is Matt Lawson, a 24-year-old second baseman with a strong walk rate and little else. He does offer plus defense, so there’s hope he can become a sort of poor man’s Mark Ellis at the keystone. Still, he looks more like a utility type who won’t kill you if he has to start at an infield spot for six weeks.
The Mariners hedged their bets here. Knowing they need help soon, they acquired three minor leaguers who deserve to be promoted to Triple-A right now, putting them very close to helping the major league team. Smoak also gives fans a reason to watch, and as great as Lee was, he wasn’t a part of this team’s future, and Smoak offers more long-term hope to the fanbase.
I think this is a win-win deal.
Texas, which hasn’t won anything in years, legitimately improves their chances to get deep into the playoffs this year, and adds the rare pitcher who should be ballpark-proof there (although they said that about Chan Ho Park once upon a time, so who knows?). The loss of Smoak hurts, but it’s very possible their two likely compensation picks turn out better than the three players they gave up, making it essentially Smoak for Lee and Lowe, which is perfectly reasonable (Chris Davis deserves another shot, and first basemen aren’t exactly hard to find even if he flames out again).
Seattle, on the other hand, adds a potential cornerstone, immediate offensive boost, and sign of hope in Smoak, a pitcher in Beavan who could put up extremely good numbers with their defense and ballpark, thus making him more valuable to Seattle than just about any other team in baseball, an intriguing relief pitcher in Lueke, and a solid utilty guy in Lawson. There’s also the added benefit of ensuring that Smoak doesn’t grace the heart of the Texas order for years to come. As easy as getting a decent 1B sounds, Seattle knows from experience it’s no guarantee, so who knows, with Smoak gone, the Rangers could be down a bat. Once Lee leaves Texas, too, that rotation goes right back to being five question marks, as nobody seems to establish consistently good pitching there. Texas’ good farm system had them shaping up to be a power for years, and Seattle just put a dent in that system and took that power to their side.
It’s a gamble on both ends. If the Rangers don’t win at least one playoff series and hit on those compensation picks, this deal becomes fairly disastrous, no matter how inspired it looks now. On Seattle’s end, if Smoak can’t get in gear and none of the other three guys takes much of a step forward, they’ll have traded a core piece in Lee for a package of four complementary/filler players…you know, like the package they sent to Philadelphia for Lee in the first place (except that was three players).
Each team has solid reasons for making this deal, and significant possible drawbacks. Time will tell who comes out on top.