Astros/Blue Jays Trade Analysis: Anthony Gose for Brett Wallace

After the Roy Oswalt trade earlier today (which I analyzed here), the Houston Astros stayed active, almost immediately trading one of the prospects they received in that trade, outfielder Anthony Gose, to Toronto for first baseman Brett Wallace.

Find out who won the swap of prospects after the jump.

The Obvious

Brett Wallace was traded for the first time last deadline, from the Cardinals to the A’s. The A’s would then ship him to the Blue Jays over the offseason, and he’s now been moved again.

All the while, Wallace has had a reputation as one of the best pure hitters in the minors, but defensive concerns pushed him from third base to first base. Wallace, soon to be 24, was hitting .301/.359/.509 this year in Triple-A, and is a career .304/.375/.487 hitter in the minors. He hit 20 homers last year and has 18 this year.

As for Gose, nothing’s changed in his scouting report in the past three hours, and I’m lazy, so here’s a nice copy-paste from my analysis of him in the Oswalt deal:

"“One of the fastest players in the game, Gose swiped 70 bags last year. He’s struggled on the bases this year, though, going just 36-for-63. Very young for his level, he’s hitting .263/.325/.385, which isn’t bad given his age and the pitcher’s league in which he plays (the Florida State League is notoriously pitcher-friendly).Gose has been compared to Carl Crawford for his speed, left-handed swing, and power potential. Some scouts think he could hit 20 homers down the line, and he’s already hit four this year after hitting just two last season. Gose also has 17 doubles and a whopping eleven triples.In order to get better use of his speed, Gose does need to tighten up his strike zone. He’s whiffed 103 times this year and walked just 32. He needs to improve his approach, but at his age, he has time to do that.Defensively, he’s also one of the best center fielders in the minors, so at the very least, he should be a valuable part-timer who saves tons of runs in center field with his stellar range and terrific arm.”"

The Not-So-Obvious

There are some real negatives with Wallace. For all the talk of him being a batting-title-caliber hitter, he hasn’t hit above .302 at any stop above A-ball, and the career .487 slugger doesn’t have the elite power of most MLB first basemen. He’s maxed out physically, so there’s little room for power growth, and it’s not like Wallace’s defense does him many favors.

Wallace also plays in Las Vegas, one of the minors’ most friendly hitter’s parks, and he slugged just .467 on the road. His 83/27 K/BB is below-average, and again is inconsistent with the scouting reports that laud his approach.

A year ago, it seemed that I was the only person who had these concerns, and that it was just a matter of time before Wallace matched his potential, but it’s no accident he’s been traded three times in a year, including now twice for another prospect (he was dealt for Michael Taylor in the offseason, and Taylor is a better prospect than Gose).

Wallace looks like a .280 hitter with 20-25 homer power in the majors, which isn’t bad, but is hardly difference-making as a first baseman.

What makes the deal odd for Houston is that they have a better version of the same player in their system already (Koby Clemens). Why go out of your way to block Clemens with Wallace? Sure, they might want to trade Lance Berkman, and Clemens isn’t quite ready for the majors yet, but Tommy Everidge (.297/.368/.459 in Triple-A, which is better than Wallace’s road numbers) is a good stopgap until Clemens is ready.

Toronto, on the other hand, could really have used Wallace, given that he’s nearly ready and Lyle Overbay is their starting first baseman. They traded one of there surer future bats for much more of a wild-card in Gose.

The flip side to this odd swap is that Houston now has real depth at first base. They are almost guaranteed to get one good starter between Clemens and Wallace, and given how often prospects fail, it’s nice to have that insurance. And if both succeed, one becomes a nice trade chip.

Toronto’s big positive is that they turned a defensively-challenged doubles hitter into a tremendous center fielder with some offensive potential. Guys who could turn into Adam LaRoche are easier to find than guys who could turn into Carl Crawford.

To tie this back to the Oswalt deal for a second, the acquisiton of a relatively safe prospect like Wallace almost ensures that the Astros will get solid value from that deal–4 1/2 years of J.A. Happ and six years of Wallace are likely to be worth much more than 1 1/2 years of Oswalt, regardless of Jonathan Villar‘s career.

Conclusions

This is a bit of a head-scratcher on both sides. Toronto seems to need Wallace more than Houston does, and the rebuilding Astros probably had more use for Gose than Toronto will. It’s something of a risk-averse move for Houston, getting the safer prospect, and a risky move for the Blue Jays, who are betting that Gose works out and they can find a good first baseman. I’m guessing Houston wins the deal, but since we’re talking about two young players who are far from known quantities at this point, it really could go any number of directions.