The Rangers have made yet another upgrade to their team, acquiring Florida corner infielder Jorge Cantu for Double-A pitchers Evan Reed and Omar Poveda.
It’s surprising that the Rangers and Angels have been in such heated trade talks, given that LA is 8 1/2 behind Texas. The Rangers sure feel like the Angels are breathing down their necks anyway, even though the A’s are actually closer in the standings.
My analysis of the Cantu deal follows after the jump.
The Obvious
Cantu is hitting just .259/.308/.408. He swings at 37.3% of pitches outside the zone, but his merely average contact skills make that a poor approach, as he winds up striking out a fair amount and often putting poor pitches in play rather than waiting for something he can drive.
Cantu’s had issues catching up to fastballs this year after pummeling them in years past. At 28, it probably isn’t a declining bat speed issue, but it’s worrisome nonetheless.
Cantu is an average defender at first base and a very poor one at third, so with his mediocre hitting, he hasn’t been particularly valuable this year–just 0.4 WAR according to Fangraphs’ data. Worth just $1.6 million thus far in 2010, he looks like a poor bet to wind up being worth the $6 million he’s being paid this year. Florida will chip in $600,000 of his remaining salary, so money-wise, Texas is probably only slightly overpaying for two months of Cantu, whose contract expires at season’s end.
Florida is .500, but they’re always looking to get value for players whose deals are about to expire, and if the team somehow veers back into contention, it likely wouldn’t have been Cantu leading the way.
As for where Cantu fits in Texas, he’ll likely take over for Chris Davis, who is hitting below the Mendoza Line. Texas first basemen have combined to hit a pitcher-esque .197/.296/.315. Cantu provides decent defense at first as well, so it’s a definite upgrade, if only from the horrific to the mediocre.
The Not-So-Obvious
Evan Reed, 24, is a towering righty who had a 1.62 ERA in Double-A and didn’t allow any homers in 39 innings. He’s no strikeout demon, with just 34 K’s (as a reliever, that’s nothing special), but he rarely walks batters (just 13 BB). A third-rounder in 2007, he flamed out as a starter in 2008 and walked way too many last year in relief before settling in as a solid relief prospect this year.
He’s a hard thrower, sitting in the 91-94 range and touching 96-97 on occasion, and Reed’s slider is an average second offering. He projects as a decent middle reliever who can pitch whole innings, a nice thing to have in the NL.
Omar Poveda, 22, has seemingly been around forever, but is still pretty young. He’s missed all of this year recovering from Tommy John surgery he had in the spring, and won’t pitch this year. He’ll come back as a 23-year-old in Triple-A, though, having thrown 130 1/3 solid Double-A innings last year.
Poveda has one of the best changeups in the minors, and he complements it with a fastball around 90 and a good curveball. He’s not an overpowering pitcher, but he could be a solid fourth starter. Ian Kennedy represents Poveda’s upside.
You have to like that the Marlins got a potential fourth starter and middle reliever for a replacement-level player who’s contract was up after the season. That’s a coup. A small coup, but still a coup.
And Texas? I don’t like this move.
First, they’re acting as if the Angels’ acquisition of Dan Haren is somehow going to make up nine games in two months if they don’t do something about it. That’s not to say they shouldn’t make moves–they have playoff games to win, after all–but that they shouldn’t make any blatantly all-in moves as if they’re trying to save a sinking ship. I don’t think Texas wants Cantu to start in 2011 (if they’re smart, they don’t), so that’s what this is?
Second, how many first basemen in Triple-A can hit .259/.308/.408? A TON. John Lindsey. Jeff Bailey. Brad Nelson. Andy Tracy. The list goes on. Those guys don’t cost two decent prospects. If you’re going to upgrade, either upgrade big and expensive or small and cheap. Cantu is a small upgrade, but he’s relatively expensive anyway. Not the player Texas should’ve gone after.
And finally, Texas has now sent away six quality young players (four to a division rival, to boot) in this month, hurting their once-vaunted farm depth and putting their future in doubt. Neither player those six players acquired (Cantu or Cliff Lee) will be on the roster in 2011, and the A’s and Mariners will be getting more infusions of young talent. Oakland’s already staying afloat this year; when they get some bats, they’re going to be dangerous, and the Rangers have now significantly diminished their ability to compete for the next few years after 2010. To get Lee? It made some sense. To get Jorge Cantu, rather than keep playing Davis, Mitch Moreland, or even Max Ramirez at first base? Come on, now.
Conclusions
Florida gets what they want in the deal; two fairly interesting young pitchers for someone they didn’t need. Texas, on the other hand, appears to be increasingly single-minded on 2010. They better win it all this year, as their extreme efforts to do so have hurt the team’s ability to compete in the future. Flags fly forever, so it might work, but acquiring a poor player like Cantu for a significant price when there are so many other first baseman available…it just isn’t a good move for the Rangers.