It’s somewhat old news by now, but the first waiver trade of 2010 was consummated last week, as the Brewers sent veteran outfielder Jim Edmonds to the Reds for younger outfielder Chris Dickerson.
Dickerson, 28, obviously has more long-term upside than the 40-year-old Edmonds, so there’s little question the Brewers win this deal from a “total value” perspective.
Two questions arise, though:
1.) Is Edmonds significantly better than Dickerson, to the point where his acquisition gives the Reds a sizeable improvement the rest of the way?
2.) Is Dickerson the sort of player who can really make a big impact in future years, even if he’s worse than Edmonds now?
Dickerson is currently hitting .203/.230/.288 and Edmonds .274/.339/.474 (Yeah, I’m cheating and including their numbers from the past few games after the trade; it doesn’t really matter). Edmonds thus has a cool 114-point wOBA advantage.
It’s worth noting that Dickerson has been hurt much of the year, and last year’s .275/.370/.373 performance was closer to Edmonds’ offensive level. In fact, over his career, Dickerson is a .272/.363/.418 hitter–which works out to a .350 wOBA, just six points below Edmonds’ 2010 mark.
Dickerson is also a plus defender in all three outfield spots. Edmonds’ 2010 UZR/150 is stellar (shocking given his age), but he certainly wasn’t any good there in 2008 or even 2007.
If Edmonds’ defense is anywhere close to being for real, and Dickerson’s offense stays anywhere near its current 2010 level, then sure, Edmonds is a rather huge upgrade. But if Dickerson rounds back into 2008-09 offensive form (which is very possible, given that he’s been hurt much of the year), and Edmonds proves to be below-average or even average defensively, two months of the swap likely won’t make a difference in the standings.
This deal really boils down to what Dickerson can be long-term. If his 2008-09 performance is to be believed, he’s a really nice starting center fielder, and four years of having a nice starting center fielder is better than two months of having a nice starting center fielder.
But Dickerson is 28, he’s having a terrible year, and it’s not like he was ever some sort of minor league terror. The guy projected as a fourth outfielder throughout his whole minor league career, so it’s not inconceivable that he just performed somewhat above expectations his first 400 MLB plate appearances and is now having a Boeschian fall back to earth.
Still, as you might expect, I’m going to side with the Brewers on this deal. I’m not going to write Dickerson off because of 62 injury-riddled plate appearances, and if he’s healthy now, his track record indicates that he’s not much worse than Edmonds. He’s signed for far longer and should stay good for longer as well.
But there is the very real chance that his struggles don’t get reversed. Cincinnati knows more about what’s up with Dickerson than I do, and I certainly can see the thought process that went into their side of the deal. It could well work, but I wouldn’t bet on it long-term, and maybe not even short-term. You have to credit the Reds, a team that really didn’t do anything in July, with trying something, though–after all, it’s not like Cincinnati’s a postseason fixture, and I’m sure Reds brass want to take advantage of their contention while they can. Did they sacrifice some contention possibilities later on? I can’t tell you; only time will.