Notable Numerals: Joe Mauer, Clay Buchholz and More

While doing some research for last week’s AL Central themed Notable Numerals, I came across some interesting statistics related to streaking players. Not the usual streaks that I would cover when writing the column Streaking in the Park, but longer periods of time. This week’s Notable Numerals revolves solely around the past 30 days and the impressive and depressive performances we have all witnessed. As the season winds down, individual performances can earn bigger paychecks next season and teams that finish strong can carry that momentum in 2011, so even teams that are 15+ games back in their divisions have something to play for into the beginning of October. Enjoy!

Joe Mauer’s batting average in his last 24 games. After signing a massive 8-year contract his off-season to be playing for the Minnesota Twins through the 2018 season, Mauer’s power numbers have been significantly down from his career high 28 last season, and until recently, his averaged had dipped as well. The good news for the Twins, however, has been that Mauer is on an absolute tear over the past month or so. Mauer has been hitting the cover off the ball and has raised his batting average .037 points and his slugging percentage .064 since July 10th.

To give some perspective on Mauer’s accomplishments this past month, the 2nd highest batting average over that span in all of baseball was .378, .065 points below his mark, a huge difference in terms of average. An even greater accomplishment is Mauer’s ability to help his team jump into 1st place in the AL Central and at this point, take a tight race and begin to run away with the division crown. The Twins are currently sitting 5 games ahead of the 2nd place Chicago White Sox and don’t show any signs of slowing down with an 8-2 record in the past 10 games and are 23-7 in their last 30 games. Not all the credit goes to Mauer, but he is a key piece both behind the plate and in the batter’s box.

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ERA for Clay Buchholz in his last 6 starts. This entire season has been a break-out year for the young righty Clay Buchholz. Since throwing a no-hitter in 2007, Buchholz has had a bumpy ride, filled with lapses in focus and mental control, but all of that is past him now. After showing promise towards the end of 2009, Buchholz has had lights out stuff this season, sitting at 15-5 with a league best 2.26 era. His most recent span of 6 games has resulted in the near 1 era with a 5-0 record, making him a strong candidate for the AL Cy Young. Who would have guessed that in April?

The Red Sox have known Buchholz would one day be a great pitcher and certainly expected big things from him this season, but no one expected him to be the team’s ace, especially when he is on a staff with the likes of Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka. The key to his success has been his mental focus when runners on base, preventing him from always giving up big innings. In the past, and even a bit in the beginning of the year, if a runner or 2 got on with 1 or no outs, you could almost see Buchholz unravel on the mound and the inning would likely result in a crooked number that was tough to overcome. With that in the past, Buchholz is primed to be an ace in the bigs for years to come.

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Hit’s allowed by Cliff Lee in his last 6 starts. After beginning the year at 8-3 with a 2.34 era and 5 complete games with the Seattle Mariners in 13 starts, Cliff Lee has struggled to find his bearings in the Texas heat. He has allowed 68 hits in his 9 starts with the Rangers with a 2-4 record, but has been worse over the last month. In 6 starts this last month Lee has a 1-3 record with a 4.63 era and has allowed 23 earned runs in 44.2 innings. He has 1 complete game, but clearly has struggled to make the adjustment, even though he joined a winning, 1st place team. Lee still has continued his ridiculous balls to strikeout ratio with the Rangers, posting just 4 BBs and 50 Ks in his last 6 starts, but wins are what the Rangers need.

Overall, the difficulty of switching teams mid-year can’t be overlooked, especially when you shift from a cooler, wet Seattle to a hot Texas, but jumping 2+ points in your era and having a 2-4 record when moving to a considerably better team with a top offense is tough to swallow. The good thing for the Rangers, is that even while struggling, they are running away with the AL West division (8 games up on the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and the Oakland Athletics), so Lee can take his time and settle in before the playoffs begin and they need him to be their ace. If Texas can get hot going into the post-season, watch out.

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Stolen bases for the Oakland Athletics in 27 games. Personally, I love to see the low-level teams succeed late in the season and pass perennial favorites in the standings. The AL West is only 4 teams deep, but has been full of surprises this season. The 1st was the Texas Rangers dominating the division, followed by the destruction of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and the Oakland Athletics, who are now tied with the Angels for 2nd place. When you add in the high-expectations for the Seattle Mariners (49-75, 20.5 games back in 4th place), the entire division has been all over the board in 2010.

The best story for me has been the resurgence of the Oakland Athletics. They have been stealing bases faster than any other team this month and are now just 1 game below .500, a spot many did not think they would be at this point. Their last 10 games have been poor at  4-6, but their last 30 includes a record of 15-15, which may not seem impressive on paper, but considering their weak offense, is a true accomplishment. Outfielder Coco Crisp has certainly helped the team as of late, hitting .333 in 19 games in August. I’m not saying the Athletics are a bat away from contending, but they are certainly playing above their abilities at this point.

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Home runs for Jose Bautista in 27 games. The Toronto Blue Jays have been out of contention for quite some time in the brutal AL East, but Jose Bautista continues to have a career year in terms of power. He now has 38 home runs on the season, 6 ahead of 2nd in that category (Albert Pujols, 32), and continues on his torrid pace, seemingly without any signs of stalling. In his past 27 games, Bautista has a slugging percentage of .737 and has averaged more than 1 rbi per game over that span at 28 total.

Throughout his career, Bautista has always shown signs of having good power, but has never been able to put together a season like this one. His previous career high in home runs was in 2006 with the Pittsburgh Pirates, his 1st full season in the bigs, in which he hit 16 home runs. He has broken the 10 home run mark each year since, but wasn’t able to eclipse 16 until this season, in which he has exploded. The downside with Bautista is his average, sitting at .242 for his career, but if he keeps jacking home runs at 30+ a season, not many people in the Blue Jays organization will be complaining.

Brian Phair – BoSox Injection – Notable Numerals

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