In last week’s Pen Polls, we covered the Jayson Werth contract with the Washington Nationals. That contract, and the Phillies recent surprise signing of Cliff Lee (which will surely impact what the Royals do with Zack Greinke) bring us to this weeks topic.
Even though it is only December, it’s never too early to start thinking about how the divisional races will shape up for the 2011 major league season.
DISCLAIMER: This is not meant to be an all inclusive list of offseason moves, though I did my best to pick up on most of them in my rundown.
AL Central:
This my “home base” when it comes to my two favorite teams and there have been a few waves made in the Central waters. The Detroit Tigers struck first when they added Victor Martinez. The Chicago White Sox answered by bringing in the services of Adam Dunn. The Twins dealt away J.J. Hardy and Brendan Harris, but are expected to finalize a deal with Japanese import Tsuyoshi Nishioka.
The Cleveland Indians have been completely MIA on the free agent market. That may not be a bad thing compared to the goings on with the Kansas City Royals who spent $3.75 million to bring in the services should-be part time players Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur. Both provide little over the in-house options the team had and both will get far too many at bats. The youth is coming, but there is little hope for much of anything in 2011, especially if Zack Greinke gets dealt.
Other free agent signings: Jesse Crain (White Sox), Joaquin Benoit (Tigers)
Bottom line: I am intrigued to see how Adam Dunn fares as he switches leagues and moves into a power-hitter’s haven. Outside of that I don’t know if the balance of power has shifted much this offseason. The Twins, White Sox, and Tigers will finish the 2011 season with records above 0.500 with the division champion being the team that manages to stay healthy and stable. As much as it pains me to say it since I’m a Twins/Royals fan, the curiosity factor in the AL Central is minimal. There is a very good chance that the division standings will be the same at the end of 2011 as they were at the end of 2010.
AL West:
Unlike the Central I think there is some intrigue to how things will shake out in the AL West even though no team in the division has landed a big name in the free agent market. In fact, the biggest “splash” in free agency has probably been the Athletics addition of Hideki Matsui to serve as the team’s DH. The A’s also landed David DeJesus via a trade with the Royals, but while he is a solid and reliable player, he’s not a difference maker. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim missed out on Carl Crawford among others, but did land Scott Downs to augment their bullpen. They will get Kendry Morales back, but the rest of the roster is another year older. The big move for the Seattle Mariners this offseason has been the addition of Miguel Olivo. It is a fine signing and a positive addition but it won’t be nearly enough to get the team out of last place.
The Texas Rangers lost Cliff Lee but they were rolling along without him in 2010 and there is no reason to expect a big drop off within the division. Yorvit Torrealba should help stabilize things behind the plate which was one of their major weaknesses last season before acquiring Bengie Molina. Texas also has the strongest farm system in the division which gives them the greatest flexibility to either plug holes from within or go out and make a trade during the season.
Other free agent signings: Yoshinori Tateyama (Rangers), Matt Treanor (Rangers), Rich Harden (Athletics), Hisanori Takahashi (Angels), Erik Bedard (Mariners), Jack Cust (Mariners)
Bottom line: The Rangers remain the clear favorites to not only win the division but run away with it. The Mariners are the clear favorites to finish last, which leaves the A’s and Angels to jockey for 2nd place. The one intriguing thing to watch in this division is the Oakland Athletics “next big three.” Can Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill take another step forward? Perhaps more importantly, can Brett Anderson stay healthy and solidify himself as a legitimate ace?
AL East:
If you want offseason action and you want big name signings, then AL is the place to be (as usual).
Boston landed Carl Crawford and dealt 3 of their top 6 prospects to acquire Adrian Gonzalez. Just another day at the office for the “Junior Evil Empire.” The New York Yankees re-signed Mo and Jeter allowing them to sate the fanbase, but both players are close to the end and both could fall off the proverbial cliff at any moment (assuming Jeter hasn’t done so already). To the joy of everyone who isn’t a fan of the Yanks, Cliff Lee chose to take his services to Philly and it sure seems like staying with the Rangers was option #2 on his list. The team has added Russell Martin, but he has had two straight down years himself and muddles the developmental picture for super-stud prospect Jesus Montero. Downtrodden Baltimore acquired J.J. Hardy and Mark Reynolds via trades. They also brought back Koji Uehara. Offsetting those 3 positive moves, they resigned Cesar Izturis (he of the 50 OPS+ in 2010).
Which brings us to the Tampa Bay Rays who lost Carl Crawford, lost Carlos Pena, figure to lose a large chunk of their 2010 bullpen and are working hard to deal Jason Bartlett. If there is any team who can overcome these losses, it is the Tampa Bay Rays. Their bullpen will need to be rebuilt but J.P. Howell has been resigned and the Rays have some major league ready prospects, like Jake McGee, who are more than capable of picking up the slack. Desmond Jennings has big shoes to fill, but he has the upside and athletic ability to be the “next” Carl Crawford. Reid Brignac can capably step in for Bartlett and will bring more offense to the position. B.J. Upton, Sean Rodriguez, Ben Zobrist and yes even Evan Longoria, who quietly had a “down” year, figure to be better in 2011. A full year of John Jaso behind the plate and the young rotation should continue to keep them in the playoff conversation the entire season.
The Toronto Blue Jays have been quiet on the free agent front, but that may be a smart move considering they finished with an all-but-unnoticed 85-77 record. The Jays have what I consider to be the most exciting, young talent-laden 5-man rotation in all of baseball. If Kyle Drabek makes the Opening Day roster it will get kicked up another notch.
Bottom line: On paper the Red Sox are the clear favorites. Not only have they added two cornerstone players in Crawford and Gonzalez, it is hard to imagine the team could possibly have to deal with more injuries than they did during the 2010 season. While they will be underappreciated by the media and a majority of fans, the Rays remain extremely talented and dangerous and should not be undersold. There are a ton of unknowns surrounding Tampa Bay but I would not be shocked if they push the Red Sox all season long. I am not so optimistic when it comes to the New York Yankees but in success, or failure, they are always a running storyline. The Toronto Blue Jays are my favorite dark-horse team to shock the baseball world in 2011 and if they were in any other division they would have a good chance to win it outright. It’s hard to pick them here but I could see a 2nd place finish if things break right for them. The one certainty here is that the Orioles will, once again, finish in last.
NL Central:
Any of this strike you as intriguing?
The Chicago Cubs signed Carlos Pena. The Cincinnati Reds re-signed Ramon Hernandez and Miguel Cairo. Houston brought in Ryan Rowland-Smith and Milwaukee signed Wil Nieves.
If you are like me than probably not. If you are like MLB Network, then you couldn’t get enough of the Carlos Pena coverage for some reason.
Thankfully the St Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates (yes those Pirates) have made a bit of noise. The Cardinals resigned Jake Westbrook, paid to bring in Lance Berkman and also added Gerald Laird and Brian Tallet. Not to be outdone (in terms of quantity), the Pirates signed Kevin Correia, Matt Diaz, Lyle Overbay and Scott Olsen.
Bottom line: Clearly the big winner this offseason has been the Cardinals. I’m not dismissing the Reds in 2011, but St. Louis appears to have positioned themselves to retake the division. The Pirates have made a series of very savvy and intelligent moves. Unfortunately they started the offseason so far back in the pack that these moves may have little impact on their overall record at the end of the season. The Reds and Cardinals should provide one of the more interesting division battles during the season. The young Pirates position players should make them a very interesting team to watch, but that pitching staff is going to be dreadful making a move up in the standings very unlikely. The other 3 teams are bringing very little to the table outside of watching some young players, like Starlin Castro, mature and develop.
NL West:
As the defending World Series Champs, the San Francisco Giants give the NL West some interest and intrigue by default. The team lost Juan Uribe to the rival Dodgers, but did resign Pat Burrell and Aubrey Huff. They also brought in Miguel Tejada and are still in the running to bring back Edgar Renteria.
The rest of the division has smartly been active in free agency and on the trade market in an attempt to keep up with San Francisco.
Speaking of active, the Dodgers have been the most active team this offseason signing 10 free agents to major league contracts along the way led by Ted Lilly, the aforementioned Juan Uribe, Matt Guerrier and Jon Garland. They also resigned Hiroki Kuroda and Vicente Padilla to one-year deals. The other four players to receive major league deals from the Dodgers were: Rod Barajas, Tony Gwynn Jr., Jay Gibbons and Dioner Navarro.
The Colorado Rockies re-signed Jorge de la Rosa and signed Ty Wigginton while the Arizona Diamondbacks have added J.J. Putz, Xavier Nady, Melvin Mora, Geoff Blum and Henry Blanco. Arizona did lose some offensive production by dealing away Mark Reynolds however.
The San Diego Padres made news by dealing Adrian Gonzalez for three of Boston’s best prospects, but they also signed Aaron Harang and Dustin Moseley. For the low cost of two relief pitchers, the Friars also landed Cameron Maybin. He may have lost some of his prospect luster, but Maybin still has all of the tools to succeed and could become an immediate force.
Bottom line: There is a lot to like in the NL West as four of the five teams have a fair shot of winning the division. Since the Giants, Padres and Dodgers are built with pitching they are also a threat to make noise in the playoffs if they get there. Additionally the Rockies boast Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitski, two of the most dynamic players at their positions in all of baseball. Arizona has a way to go but with Justin Upton and Dan Hudson on the roster, I have a reason to tune in. Top to bottom this is the division race I am looking forward to the most.
NL East:
When it comes to big names joining the division this offseason, the AL East has nothing on their NL counterpart.
The Washington Nationals shocked the baseball world when they gave Jayson Werth a very rich and very long-term contract. Werth is the only free agent they have signed to a major league contract, but their name has made its way into the conversation on most of the high profile options, including Cliff Lee. Showing a level of activity and willingness to spend should bode well for them in future efforts.
The Philadelphia Phillies shocked the baseball world in an entirely different way pulling Cliff Lee out from under the Rangers and Yankees. They did so while also committing to fewer seasons and only slightly more in terms of annual dollars. The addition of Lee gives the Phillies one of the most storied and accomplished rotations (1-4 anyway) in major league history and they still have a potent lineup to pair with their pitching. The bullpen has also received some attention with the addition of Dennys Reyes and the decision to bring back Jose Contreras.
It’s almost an afterthought now, but the Florida Marlins made some noise of their own early on when they signed Javier Vazquez and John Buck. They traded away Dan Uggla and Cameron Maybin in separate deals, but did get Omar Infante and young LHP Mike Dunn back in return for Uggla. In a more minor move they also signed Randy Choate.
In addition to acquiring Uggla, the Atlanta Braves resigned Eric Hinske and added George Sherrill via free agency.
The New York Mets signed Ronny Paulino away from the Marlins and have otherwise been quiet and unimpressive this offseason.
Bottom line: There are a ton of storylines to follow in the NL East during the 2011 season. Everyone will of course have their eyes on the Phillies rotation, but the Atlanta Braves and Florida Marlins also have strong and intriguing rotations of their own. Tommy Hanson and Josh Johnson alone are two of the most talented young arms in all of baseball and the division also boast young studs Logan Morrison, Mike Stanton and Jason Heyward who are all worth the time in their own rights. Can Werth even come close to living up to his deal? Can the Mets find a new way to disappoint? Just more things to follow and ponder during the season.
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Since Pen Polls is all about bringing in the thoughts and opinions of others, I posed this week’s question to some of my fellow FanSided writers:
Looking at how things stack up in the middle of December, which of the divisional races are you most anxious to watch unfold during the 2011 season?
Stacy Smith – Nolan Writin’ Lead Writer:
"I should obviously say that I’m eager to watch the American League West pan out, but that isn’t my choice. For the record, though, I am interested in the AL West. However, I’m eager to watch the National League East. The Phillies just landed Cliff Lee and with the starting rotation that they have, it is going to be a heck of a race and I’m not sure anyone in the division can stand up to them. They are practically going to be unbeatable unless their bullpen really just sucks it up. I think their stiffest competition will be the Atlanta Braves and their 11 division titles."
John Parent – Motor City Bengals Lead Writer and MLB Director:
"I’m anxious to see the NL Central. Can the Reds stay at the top with teams like St. Louis and Chicago figuring to be improved? Can Milwaukee get enough pitching to compete (I think so) before they have to unload Prince Fielder? I think the Pirates will be better and the Astros always seem to sneak up in the second half. Lots of storylines there. In that division, you could predict the order of finish several different ways. None of those teams figure to be significantly better than the rest."
Justin Klugh – That Balls Outta Here Lead Writer and CttP Columnist:
"I think I’ll shock everybody with my nod to the NL East. For awhile there, I assumed the Braves were stockpiling an arsenal in preparation for a tactical strike of efficiently epic proportions. All of their holes were being plugged, and the Phillies… we just stood there and watched. Then, even the Nationals were being talked about, and our biggest off season move looked to be losing Jayson Werth to a much more serious (if still developing) Washington team. And then, you know, that awesome thing happened, and the Phillies put themselves right back in the thick of it. 2010 showed the Phillies that they’d have to do more to win the East than just want to. The Braves are going to be there, the Nats are driving to be there, and the Marlins always manage to jump into the middle of things and just mess shit up. I think this NL East race will be the tightest it has been since ’06.Also: LOL Mets."
Kalup Alexander – Halo Hangout Contributing Writer:
"I’ll selfishly say the AL West. Sadly, the Angels have done pretty much nothing so far to regain there position as the pace setter in the West. Oakland meanwhile (albeit quietly) has done the most to improve so far adding Matsui and DeJesus. So now its a race from here until the day pitchers and catchers report to see what the Angels and Rangers do to improve.Right now I would argue that the A’s as are the favorite.*Seattle was not mentioned for a reason. Sorry M’s fans. Safeco is still in my top 5 ball parks and … I’ll be In Seattle for NYE!"
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Now it’s time to pose the question to you our loyal readers. Since the AL East always has its share of coverage and big storylines, I have elected to exclude it from the voting. This is not to slight the AL East, which is absolutely stacked, but rather to get a feel for with of the other five you guys are looking forward to.