Well, here we are. The site move is complete, Alex’s delayed column from Sunday is up, and it’s time to get back to some sort of “business as usual.”
In that case, that means it’s time to look over the latest trade that went down–the Tigers shipping righthander Armando Galarraga to Arizona for righty starter prospect Kevin Eichhorn and lefty reliever prospect Ryan Robowski.
I’ve had one thought echo in my head ever since this trade went down: Why, exactly, would anyone rush to get Armando Galarraga?
Armando Galarraga is, by all accounts, a consummate professional. That line’s been rehashed a million times since the most notable moment of his career, so I’m going to leave it alone here.
What matters here is how he pitches. And he doesn’t pitch very well.
Armando Galarraga has spent most of the past three years in the Detroit Tigers rotation. His FIP numbers: 4.88, 5.47, and 5.09. The lowest HR/9 he’s had in any of those three years: 1.31. Not pretty.
Galarraga has a career BABIP of .263; that’s not going to stay there. It’s worth noting that his career line drive rate is just 17.2%, so perhaps he can sustain a sub-.300 BABIP, but expecting him to post ERAs significantly under 5.00 is asking too much.
Moving to the NL should theoretically help Galarraga, although Arizona’s part is much unfriendlier than Detroit’s. Galarraga couldn’t keep the ball in Comerica Park, so things could get really ugly in Arizona.
Why trade for Galarraga? I just don’t get it. Can he take the ball and not completely embarrass himself as a fifth starter? I suppose. Are their worse swing/relief types in the majors? Sure. But Galarraga’s optimal role is as a twelfth pitcher or Triple-A ace on a contending team. If a contending team was desperate for some sort of proven arm and didn’t have to give up much, acquiring Galarraga might make some sense. I know the NL West is wide open next year, but Arizona’s not in a position where they need to be going after marginal-at-best upgrades in exchange for any sort of future value.
That said, Ryan Robowski for Galarraga would be a fair trade for Arizona. Robowski’s a 22-year-old lefty reliever who throws strikes, but didn’t get a whiff per inning in High-A. He could be some sort of lefty specialist someday, but he’s pretty much a lottery ticket, and an excellent bet to never play a truly significant role on an MLB team.
Where it gets problematic for Arizona is the addition of Eichhorn. It’s not a huge deal–most people had Eichhorn in the 20-25 range on lists of Arizona’s best prospects. But he’s a righty with impeccable command and just enough stuff to make things interesting. He’s got a fourth starter’s ceiling, or could be a solid middle reliever.
With Galarraga about to hit arbitration, he’s now entitled to more than the minimum salary, even though he’s really not much above replacement level. Even if Eichhorn and Robowski don’t pan out, that’s money Arizona didn’t need to spend–what are the odds that this acquisition will make the team more relevant in 2011?
As for the Tigers’ side, you have to like the deal. Detroit’s farm system is quite poor, although that has more to do with hitting than pitching. They just added two pitchers with significant pluses and a shot at future big league roles for a guy they didn’t need and didn’t want to pay.
Overall, this deal is too small-scale to be a “huge” win or loss, but it’s difficult to see upside for Arizona and difficult to see downside for Detroit.