The California League is notorious for its hitter-friendliness. Nearly every park there acts like Coors Field; many are even more ridiculous.
As a result, it’s very difficult to judge players in the circuit. Many a pitcher has struggled there only to pick himself up in Double-A. Conversely, and perhaps more importantly, many hitters star in the Cal League before plummeting back to earth in Double-A. The 2009 minor league homer leader, Jonathan Gaston, hit 35 in the Cal League; he went on to hit just 13 the next year.
Obviously, not all hitters who crush pitching in the Cal League are mirages or destined to fail. But how do we separate the true prospects from those being propped up by the environment? In this article, I’ll take a look at five 2010 Cal League stars that are poor bets to continue their success in Double-A next year.
#1.) Chris Gutierrez, Dodgers SS
Gutierrez was 26 last year, for one thing. For another, he had a batting average on balls in play of .403, which topped the league and was way out of line with anything else he’d ever put up. Given that Gutierrez couldn’t even muster a .100 ISO in this environment and struck out 22.6% of the time, there’s little doubt he’ll come back down to earth with a BABIP regression and more difficult environment.
#2.) Thomas Field, Rockies SS
Field emerged as a nice sleeper in 2010–who doesn’t love a shortstop with 15 homers? But that power total was way out of line with the two homers he hit in Low-A the year before, and Field benefited from a .346 BABIP that propped up his average despite a 26% strikeout rate.
Field got a chance to legitimize himself in the Arizona Fall League, not exactly a pitcher’s haven either. He hit .209/.260/.299 with 22 strikeouts in 18 games. Ouch.
#3.) Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks 1B
I like Goldschmidt a fair amount, but he’s not an athletic guy, so he really shouldn’t be posting .385 BABIPs. His power is legitimate, but he has yet to play in anything close to a neutral environment, so he’s more of a B-grade power prospect than the next Adam Dunn. He’s not going to keep hitting .300, or anywhere near it, while striking out over 30% of the time–once you’re out of the Cal League, you don’t get away with that sort of thing.
#4.) Marc Krauss, Diamondbacks LF
Like his teammate Goldschmidt, Krauss doesn’t fit the high-BABIP profile–his .366 mark would have placed him fourth in the majors last year, behind Austin Jackson, Josh Hamilton, and Carlos Gonzalez. Krauss isn’t as athletic as any of those three, and isn’t in Hamilton’s or Gonzalez’s league with the bat. Taking 25 or so points off both his average and ISO take him from an excellent prospect to more of a fringy platoon type–he’s got a lot to prove in Double-A next year.
#5.) Albert Cartwright, Phillies 2B (Played in Astros org. in 2010)
Cartwright spent the 2010 season playing for Lancaster, the team with the most notorious hitter’s park in the league. His Isolated Power jumped 100 points from 2009, with his batting average going up 85. Not surprisingly, Cartwright’s BABIP was .389. Given a brief month-long trial in Double-A, he hit .229/.289/.271 despite posting similar strikeout and walk numbers–he didn’t show any power and his BABIP fell back to a more normal .317.