Yesterday, I looked at five California League hitters likely to slip up next year in less friendly offensive environments.
Obviously, there’s a flipside to their impending struggles: several Cal League hurlers probably had bad luck in 2010, and should improve in 2011, right?
Well, yeah. And today, we’re going to examine five of them.
#1.) Kyle Nicholson, Giants RHP
Nicholson posted a 6.20 ERA, but that was largely thanks to two numbers that were way out of line: a .333 BABIP and 1.51 HR/9. His FIP was 4.66, but that doesn’t factor in the homers he should’ve lost. Nicholson should thrive much more in Double-A thanks to his control–he only walked 19 batters in 119 innings last year. Don’t rule out a big league career for him, although he was very old for the Cal League last year, so that works against him.
#2.) Ross Seaton, Astros RHP
Considered a good prospect before the season, Seaton saw BABIP (.341) and HR/9 (1.35) numbers destroy his 2010 as well. He was pitching for Lancaster, home of the biggest launching pad in the minors, so even his vaunted sinker couldn’t keep the ball from flying out. The lack of strikeouts (5.23 K/9) is a very legitimate concern, but Seaton’s strengths should shine a bit brighter in 2011.
#3.) Bobby LaFromboise, Mariners LHP
Hands down the winner for “Most French Last Name in Baseball” (sorry, Mr. Francoeur), LaFromboise saw another high BABIP figure (.342) and HR/9 (1.19) derail his season–he managed a passable 4.51 ERA anyway. He’s a control guy with average groundball numbers, and probably deserved an ERA closer to 4.00. Since his final destination is Safeco Field, he may be able to contribute in the majors.
#4.) Matt Shoemaker, Angels RHP
Shoemaker’s BABIP in 2010 was nearly .1 higher than his figure the year prior, which says all I need to say about why it’s so important to look at it, particularly in a BABIP-inflating league (exactly two pitchers had sub-.300 marks). The sinkerballer also is unlikely to keep serving up over a homer per nine innings. With a 119/39 K/BB, he deserved a mid-3′s ERA, not one near 5.00.
#5.) Oliver Odle, Giants RHP
Minor league vet Odle throws an incredible amount of strikes. Despite a 96/15 K/BB, his ERA was near 6.00 last year, thanks to those two culprits, a .354 BABIP and 1.02 HR/9. Given that he’s an extreme groundball pitcher, the HR/9 is way out of line, and the BABIP is sure to come down in more neutral environments with better defenses. Unfortunately for Odle, he’s now 25 and a bearer of a poor rep as a result of his misfortune; here’s hoping he overcomes it.