EDIT: Speaking of bad luck…
We recently switched our site formatting, so when I went to edit this post, it went crazy and deleted all its spacing, forcing me to re-post it. If you commented before and wonder why the comments aren’t there anymore, that’s why. Sorry for the inconvenience.
I should also mention, due to a fair amount of negative comments the article received (which, again, have nothing to do with why it was redone–even if you disparaged the piece, feel free to re-post whatever you said), that the point of this article is NOT to say that every Baltimore prospect has failed. They haven’t. It’s simply to illustrate that a fair bit, or dare I say an unusually high amount, of attrition has taken place among many of the players upon whom Baltimore fans have pinned their recent hopes. Hopefully, that clarifies it; my apologies to Baltimore fans who perceived this as a harsher and broader attack–if it were, this’d be a pretty terrible piece.
A few years ago, there was lots of optimism for the future of the Baltimore Orioles. Now…not so much, as a huge chasm separates them and the next worst team in the AL East, and their farm system is also considered one of the worst in the game.
What the hell happened to Baltimore?
In order for the Orioles to contend, they needed lots of their young prospects from a few years ago to meet their ceilings and form a formidable major league team.
Instead, they demonstrated the risks inherent in relying on prospects. Let’s look at some of the more high-profile failures.
Billy Rowell was the Orioles’ first-round pick in 2006, and rated as their #1 prospect after 2006. After a passable 2007, he hasn’t hit at all in three cracks in High-A. On the surface, it seems like he got things together with his .275/.348/.408 line this year, but alas, that was largely due to a ridiculous BABIP spike to .399. In fact, Rowell’s always-too-high strikeout rate spiked to over 35% this past year. He’s also not a good third baseman, and his bat certainly won’t hold 1B/DH. Barring a huge breakthrough, he’s finished, although Rowell is just 22 years old after all this.
Brandon Erbe excited everyone by dominating Low-A in 2006 at age 18, but he’s gotten progressively worse since, taking two years to pass the High-A test, had middling results in Double-A in 2009, and fell apart in Triple-A last year, with his once-dominant strikeout rate falling all the way to 6.37 K/9. While he’s only 23 and still has a good fastball, Erbe likely won’t be more than a marginal pitcher in the majors barring a breakthrough.
Matt Wieters still has hope, but a .266/.328/.393 line in a year and a half isn’t going to justify being a former #1 overall prospect, particularly since he got worse from 2009-10, slumping to a .303 wOBA this past year. He turns 25 in May and has yet to establish himself as a solid MLB regular, let alone a star.
Chris Tillman ranked #2 on my Top 100 Prospects List in midseason 2009, but he’s got a career 6.00 FIP and just walked as many batters as he struck out in 2010. A 1.82 HR/9 rate has been the flyballer’s undoing, as his fastball is too straight to get anyone out, and he doesn’t have enough command of it to avoid meatballs. Worse yet, his average velocity dropped 1.5 mph from 2009 to 2010, as he now sits at just 90.5 mph. Tillman, 23 in April, may yet find success, but like Wieters, the early returns are not only discouraging, but appear to lock him out of future stardom.
Brandon Snyder was supposed to be a slugging catcher, but didn’t hit, tore up his shoulder, and save for a brief offensive rise in Double-A, he hasn’t hit well enough to hold down first base. He’s now 24 and has yet to be an above-average Triple-A hitter, let alone for a first baseman. He may hit lefties well enough (.353/.411/.624 in Triple-A this year) to be a platoon player, but his performance against righties (.224/.295/.335 in Triple-A) that he couldn’t even hit at catcher standards in the majors.
Chorye Spoone graced Kevin Goldstein’s Top 100 Prospects List after a strong 2007. However, he promptly blew up his shoulder and hasn’t been right since, to the point where his 88/79 K/BB in Double-A this past year was considered a step forward. Now 25, he’s unlikely to amount to much.
Brad Bergesen put up a 3.43 ERA in 2009 for Baltimore, and while his FIP was worse (4.10), he still appeared to be a solid fourth starter. However, the sinkerballer imploded in 2010, as his ERA moved to 4.98 and his FIP went to 5.14. Bergesen doesn’t even strike out a batter every other inning, and his turbo sinker couldn’t even generate a 50% groundball rate…or keep the ball in the ballpark. The 25-year-old’s pretty much maxed out his skillset and isn’t likely to be more than a middle reliever or swingman.
Jake Arrieta was always a bit overhyped for his skillset, and he finally got exposed in the majors, walking nearly as many batters as he struck out. He doesn’t have much beyond his mid-90′s fastball, and seems destined for a relief role long-term.
Troy Patton, acquired in the Miguel Tejada deal with Houston, promptly went under the knife and missed all of 2008, his first season with the Orioles organization. He’s never cracked a 6 K/9 in Triple-A and is an extra arm at best, since he’s already 25.
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I don’t want to pick on these guys excessively, or pick on the Orioles–I’d love to see the moribund franchise improve, and I’ve certainly been high on Erbe, Wieters, Tillman, and Spoone in the past, so I wanted to see them succeed. I felt that the hype on Rowell, Bergesen, and Arrieta was always a bit misplaced, but that’s another story.
Anyway, we talk a lot about the mid-2000 Yankee teams that were undone by the dumb signings of overpriced veterans. Between the huge Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright failures and other things like playing Bernie Williams in center field for too long, theYankees couldn’t win the World Series despite outspending everyone.
This is the flipside of those Yankee teams. Analysts like myself always encourage teams to build from within as much as possible, but that strategy’s not infallible. You’re dealing with a lot of unknowns that need to advance properly in order to make the team win.
Sometimes it works–the recent Rays are a fantastic example. Other times…well, it’s an epic MacPhail.