It’s time to move on to looking at the AL West systems. First up: the Los Angeles Angels, who boast the best prospect in baseball. But do they have enough else to make the system above-average overall?
System Overview: The Angels have the best prospect in baseball, Mike Trout. Beyond him, they have one very raw but very high-upside pitcher (Fabio Martinez Mesa), a second potential star (but raw) outfielder (Randal Grichuk), and a whole lot of solid players.
The strength of this system is that no positions lack a prospect who could potentially be a viable MLB regular. But beyond Trout, Martinez Mesa, and Grichuk, it’s difficult to see stardom in anyone–the #3 pitcher in the system, Tyler Chatwood, didn’t even crack 5 K/9 in Double-A last year, for example.
Still, the fact that the system has solid prospects at every position is a huge bonus. I’d probably rank it slightly above average.
As for my own selections, I feel like I went really standard, except for maybe OF3, on the hitters. My pitching’s less standard, particularly throwing Martinez Mesa at the front and ranking an anonymous Rookie ball pitcher fourth, but overall, I’m pretty much in line with the conventional wisdom here.
Catcher: Hank Conger. A candidate to start behind the dish in 2011, Conger hit .300/.385/.463 in Triple-A this past year at age 22. It was an offensive environment, and Conger is considered below-average defensively, but there’s little question he’s a better option than Jeff Mathis. Conger’s power has consistently sat still–he’s got exactly 11 homers in three of the past four years, with 13 in the other–and he puts the ball in play enough to hit in the upper .200s. With no plus-plus skills, he won’t be a star, but catchers with near-even K/BB and gap power don’t grow on trees. He should be a very solid regular.
Upside: 8.4, Downside: 6.7
First base: Mark Trumbo. Trumbo’s tough to dissect. He’s put up huge numbers in offensive environments (Salt Lake and the Cal League), but scouts don’t like his setup at the plate and it hasn’t worked in more pitcher-friendly venues. Trumbo improved his K/BB, long a problem, to 126/58 last year, but that may have more to do with the fact that pitchers wanted nothing to do with a guy with 36 homers. Obviously, power like that is difficult to find. If he leverages it properly, Trumbo could be a bigtime slugger; if not, he may never be a viable major leaguer. Few Triple-A stars have more uncertain futures.
Upside: 9.2, Downside: 5.8
Second base: Alexi Amarista. Amarista reached Triple-A as a 21-year-old and promptly hit .400 in 15 games–he has excellent contact ability, enhanced by the fact that the 5’6″ infielder doesn’t exactly have a big strike zone to cover. If the surprising power he flashed at both A-ball levels (not just the Cal League; the pitcher-friendly Midwest League too) comes back, Amarista could turn into a Martin Prado sort of player. If it doesn’t, he projects as a possible .300/.350/.400 hitter with good defense at second, which is valuable anyway. A real sleeper.
Upside: 8.6, Downside: 5.3
Shortstop: Jean Segura. Segura spent the entirety of 2010 at second base, but with Amarista looking like a potential regular there, he was all set to be blocked. The Angels devised a clever solution by moving him to short in winter ball, filling their biggest organizational need and unblocking the talented speedster at the same time. Segura is basically Amarista 2.0–he has a very similar offensive skillset, but more speed, power, and defensive ability. He and Amarista project to be a very solid double-play combo in the majors–hopefully for Angels fans, they turn out better than Brandon Wood and Howie Kendrick.
Upside: 9.0, Downside: 4.0
Third base: Kaleb Cowart. A first-round selection this past year, Cowart has yet to do much in pro ball, but scouts like his athleticism at third base, where he boasts an excellent arm (he was also a coveted pitching prospect). A switch-hitter, he projects to have plus power from both sides of the plate. Cowart remains very raw, however, and he has yet to get significant pro experience. To use the stock line, “he’s the sort of player who could be a top prospect or off the radar a year from now.”
Upside: 8.8, Downside: 2.3
Outfielder #1: Mike Trout. No need for introduction here–Trout was the #1 prospect on my Top 100:
"Trout hit .362/.454/.526 with 45 steals in 81 games in full-season ball at age 18. That’s pretty much all I need to say about him. Promoted to High-A before his 19th birthday, Trout continued to hit well, and if he keeps hitting like this he could see the majors before he turns 20 on August 7. Trout has just about every skill you’d want—he plays a good center field, hits for excellent averages, has extremely good speed, and possesses plus power potential. He even has an advanced batting eye. There’s no better prospect in baseball right now."
Upside: 10.0, Downside: 6.0
Outfielder #2: Randal Grichuk. Grichuk is nowhere near as acclaimed as Trout, but he still snuck onto the back end of my top 100, at #82:
"Grichuk is similar to [Mets prospect and #83 Wilmer] Flores in some ways—an impatient hitter with a good batting average and a high prospect profile. He already has more power than Flores—he slugged .525 in Low-A, after all—but Grichuk, who was born a week after Flores, was a level below the Mets prospect and is already an outfielder. Like any 18-year-old who slugs .500 in full-season ball, he’s worth watching, as that’s no mean feat, but it remains to be seen if Grichuk can develop the K/BB ratio necessary to be a top-flight MLB outfielder. 50/9 marks like last year’s will only cut it for so long."
Upside: 9.2, Downside: 3.1
Outfielder #3: Travis Witherspoon. An intriguing power/speed sleeper, Witherspoon hit ten homers and was a perfect 20-for-20 in steals in Rookie ball. His K/BB needs work (73/24 in 71 games), and as a 21-year-old in Rookie ball, he was old for the Pioneer League. Still, Witherspoon has the toolset and acumen to be a very interesting sleeper.
Upside: 8.6, Downside: 2.2
Starting Pitcher #1: Fabio Martinez Mesa. Martinez Mesa was the only Angels pitcher to crack my Top 100, but he placed 36th:
"One of those enigmatic prospects who is nigh impossible to ranK. Martinez Mesa struck out 12.28 batters per nine innings this year…but also walked 6.62. He’s got some of the best arm strength in the minors, running his fastball up near triple digits, but he has a very real chance of following the Henry Rodriguez career path and shifting to relief if he can’t get the ball over the plate more. He isn’t just a one-pitch wonder like Rodriguez, though: Martinez Mesa chucks a hard, tight slider and a playable changeup. If he tightens up his control, he could turn into one of the game’s most fearsome power arms."
Upside: 9.5, Downside: 5.6
Starting Pitcher #2: Garrett Richards. Richards owns four average-or-better pitches and plus command, and he continues to get better at each stop–even the Cal League was no match for the power righty. He’s above-average across the board, which could lead to a long run as a #2 starter if everything turns out well.
Upside: 9.0, Downside: 5.0
Starting Pitcher #3: Tyler Chatwood. It’s tough to find a prospect who’s more opposite to Martinez Mesa. Chatwood is a fastball/curveball righty who pitches to contact; he put up a meager 4.75 K/9 in Double-A. To be fair, the 20-year-old was wayadvanced for the level, and his K/9 rates were more interesting at the lower levels. Chatwood still has problems commanding his pitches, and he has yet to post a K/BB over 2. He gets points for his youth and two plus pitches, but with diminishing strikeout ability, average command, and little in the way of a changeup, he’s got his work cut out for him.
Upside: 8.3, Downside: 5.7
Starting Pitcher #4: Joe Melioris. I’m really ambitious on this ranking, but it’s impossible to not like Melioris’ package of size and command. He posted a 48/5 K/BB in 49 2/3 Rookie ball innings, only allowing one homer. A 6’10″ behemoth, Melioris has excellent athleticism for his size, allowing for more consistent mechanics and better command than most tall pitchers. While he’s not overpowering right now, he’s very difficult to square up, resulting in lots of weak contact, and Melioris projects to add velocity as his gigantic frame fills out. A deep but huge (literally and figuratively) sleeper.
Upside: 9.o, Downside: 1.6
Starting Pitcher #5: Trevor Reckling. Reckling graced my Top 50 last year, but fell off a cliff in 2010, posting an 8.53 ERA in Triple-A. Still, he was just 20 at the time, so he can afford missteps, even if they are as bad as that one. The lefty salvaged some decency after a demotion to Double-A, and he’s still got his three signature pitches: a solid low-90′s fastball, one of the biggest curves in the minors, and a tough, fading changeup. The good news is that his Double-A walk rate this year was a full walk per nine lower than last year’s, while he maintained his strikeout rate. Long a favorite of mine (as much as an A’s fan can like an Angels prospect, anyway!), Reckling may never figure it out, but his tremendous raw stuff still gives him a slight chance at becoming an All-Star.
Upside: 9.1, Downside: 3.7
Relief Pitcher #1: Jordan Walden. I was never really high on Walden as a starter, but a move to the bullpen did him wonders, as he was consistently at 98 mph with his fastball in the new role. Just months after being a mediocre starter in the Texas League, Walden was whiffing three batters every two innings for LA. There’s little reason to think he won’t continue to be an impact late-game reliever as long as his velocity holds up.
Upside: 9.6, Downside: 7.0
Relief Pitcher #2: Steven Geltz. The stereotypical short righty with video-game numbers in the minors, Geltz struck out 36 batters in 18 2/3 Double-A innings, which pretty much quashes any talk of him being a gimmick who wouldn’t cut it at the upper levels. He’ll need to learn to pitch in the zone more, but despite his height, Geltz brings a solid fastball and nasty breaking ball to the table. Like Tim Collins of the Royals, this dude’s for real.
Upside: 8.9, Downside: 5.8