It’s time to get back to perusing the ridiculously slow curves around MLB. In Part 3, we’ll look at the slow breakers of two lefties who throw everything slowly: Doug Davis and Jamie Moyer.
Average velocity in 2010: 68.7 mph
Average velocity post-2002: 69.9 mph
Effectiveness in 2010: 1.34 runs below average per 100 pitches
Effectiveness post-2002: .48 runs above average per 100 pitches
Usage in 2010: 18.3%
Usage post-2002: 13.5%
Doug Davis only made eight starts in 2010, so his effectiveness is pretty skewed due to the small sample. With a fastball that tops out around 85 mph, his curveball is actually fairly in-line with the velocity of his other pitches, particularly since Davis works off an 80-83 mph cutter.
The big, looping breaker has above-average movement both horizontally and vertically, yet it only garnered whiffs 5.6% of the time in 2010, which goes a long way toward explaining Davis’ issues. His slow cutter actually wound up with a better whiff rate than the curve, which is extremely odd.
Why, you ask? Well, Davis only got a strike with the curve a terrible 47.2% of the time, so he rarely was throwing it in the zone, and hitters were laying off the pitches out of the zone. His cutter actually went for strikes a full 20% more often.
Clearly, his lack of command of the pitch has had an adverse effect. In 2008, the last year his curve was above-average, Davis got over 60% strikes and 10% whiffs with it, and showed much better command, particularly away from righties. It’s tough to say what exactly made him lose command of the curve, but it’s had a very negative effect on Davis overall.
Average velocity in 2010: 69.6 mph
Average velocity post-2002: 71.3 mph
Effectiveness in 2010: 2.08 runs below average per 100 pitches
Effectiveness post-2002: .43 runs below average per 100 pitches
Usage in 2010: 6.7%
Usage post-2002: 9.7%
Moyer’s probably the one conventional pitcher on this list who we can guarantee is trying to throw the curve as hard as he can. His fastball averaged just 80.9 mph in 2010, so his curve was only 11.3 mph off from that, a normal and perhaps even smallish difference.
Moyer’s breaking stuff has never been his strong suit, and his curve is more of a slurvy pitch that has good horizontal but questionable vertical movement. Of the 114 he threw last year, exactly three were whiffed at, and his 55.3% strike percentage was easily the lowest of Moyer’s pitches. He rarely throws it, and rationally so, as lIke Davis, his cutter actually drew more whiffs. UnlIke Davis, Moyer has an excellent changeup as well–he thus prioritizes it over the weak curve.
Since it’s so slow, has below-average vertical movement, and comes in exactly as hard as you’d expect a Moyer curve to come in, it’s easy to see why the pitch got ripped apart in 2010–it doesn’t have any real positive attributes.
Previous installments in the Slow Curves series:
Part 1: Randy Wolf, Brandon Medders, and Dave Bush