I continue my journey through the minor league systems with the twelfth installment, the Texas Rangers.
Texas has long boasted an excellent crop of farmhands, but several have graduated and many others were traded away last July. Does an above-average system remain? Let’s take a look.
System Overview:
I’m not thrilled with the hitting here, but it’s not awful, either. I believe in Engel Beltre, and there are a number of other interesting offensive players.
The problem offensively here is that everyone seems to have a major question mark: every hitter was either old for his level, raw, or unproven. Beltre’s the only hitter who’s even been in Double-A, and Chris McGuinness is the only one with even High-A experience.
Indeed, lots of the promise of the system is in low-stats, way-young-for-their-levels guys like Jurickson Profar and Jake Skole. Sometimes those guys become stars, and sometimes they become Carlos Triunfel. So, this system could produce some major position player talent in a few years, or it may produce very little of note.
The pitching, though, has far fewer problems. Heck, I had to leave stud righthander Neil Ramirez off of this writeup, but the guy nearly made my Top 100 Prospects list–that’s how deep this system is. I’m higher on many of the Rangers’ arms than most, but even the most pessimistic of observers would agree this is a deep and impressive crop of young hurlers. Again, though, there is the caveat that Martin Perez and Joe Wieland are the only guys with even High-A experience; Ramirez, Matt Thompson, Robbie Erlin, and Miguel De Los Santos have all wowed in Low-A, but need to maintain it at higher levels.
Catcher and the right side of the infield weren’t easy to choose, since there weren’t many great options. I’m also pessimistic on Skole, so he wound up third in my outfield rankings. I also had difficulty picking a second reliever behind Tanner Scheppers, so I went with an oddball pick there just to highlight an interesting player.
Catcher: Zach Zaneski. You take .310/.380/.488 batting lines from catchers wherever you can get them, even if the catcher in question has a merely average arm and was a 24-year-old in Low-A. Zaneski’s a solid receiver with average-across-the-board offensive skills. If he played any other position, he’s be a non-prospect, but catchers can develop late, so he merits a look in a system that doesn’t have a whole lot of impact backstops.
Upside: 7.1, Downside: 3.2
First base: Chris McGuinness. Acquired in the Jarrod Saltalamacchia deal with Boston, McGuinness is an extremely patient hitter with potential 20-HR power–he launched 19 bombs across two levels while maintaining walk rates north of 15%. Also a solid gloveman at first, McGuinness could wind up as a Daric Barton sort of player: a good defensive first baseman with excessive patience that makes up for a lack of premium power. Barton comparisons are hyperbolic, of course–at McGuinness’ age, Barton was in his second year at Triple-A, posting a .389 OBP–but McGuinness could become a solid first baseman in the majors.
Upside: 8.0, Downside: 4.0
Second base: Travis Adair. Adair was a 22-year-old in Low-A, but his .319/.370/.403 line was very solid and easily puts him at the front of a weak 2B group in this system. He struck out just 44 times in 83 games, and while his contact skills preclude him from taking lots of walks, Adair clearly knows how to get enough singles to post a strong OBP. Released by the Braves prior to 2010, Adair added a bit of strength which aided him greatly in his new organization. He’ll need to have a repeat performance to be taken seriously, but he’s a modest sleeper.
Upside: 6.7, Downside: 2.7
Shortstop: Jurickson Profar. Having a professional baseball player born in 1993 is weird enough, as few people born in that year have even come into pro ball yet. Having one already in the Northwest League is crazy, which is why people overlook Profar’s modest .250/.323/.373 line–a 17-year-old shortstop doing anything relatively competent in that setting is incredible. And Profar isn’t just a Wilmer Flores-type “shortstop until he inevitably outgrows the position,” either–he’s considered an excellent defender who could be one of the top defensive players in the majors. There’s a whole lot more for Profar to prove, but his ceiling is immense.
Upside: 9.6, Downside: 2.7
Third base: Mike Olt. Olt is the most overrated prospect in the system, in my opinion–a strikeout rate of 29.3% isn’t pretty for a player who turned 22 at the end of the Northwest League season. Still, he’s an interesting prospect, with more athleticism than most third basemen and a very patient (40 walks in 69 games) approach at the plate. The comparison that always comes to mind is Joe Crede, hopefully without the back problems.
Upside: 8.1, Downside: 3.2
Outfielder #1: Engel Beltre. The only Texas hitter to make my Top 100 Prospects (you could make a strong case for Profar, though; those rankings are now nearly half a year old, so I have no problem admitting where I’d change things now), Beltre ranked #79:
"Beltre was considered a bust entering the 2010 season, but showed that label to be premature by pounding the ball at a .331/.376/.460 clip in High-A at age 20. Long an impatient hitter, Beltre failed to improve in that regard, but started making better contact, reducing his strikeout rate. He’s a very good defensive outfielder who stole 18 bases this year.Beltre did return to his old slumping ways upon hitting Double-A (.254/.301/.357), but at age 20, he was way young for that level and has time to figure it out. He has superstar potential, but the power needs to come, and his plate discipline needs a lot of work."
Upside: 9.3, Downside: 4.2
Outfielder #2: Jared Hoying. Olt was the old-for-short-season prospect who got all the hype, but Hoying outplayed him, hitting .325/.378/.543 with 10 homers and 20 steals in 62 games. Hoying struck out nearly as much as Olt, but he’s over half a year younger and showed more power and speed. An extremely athletic player, Hoying projects to be a solid defensive outfielder–a better K/BB ratio is all that separates him from projecting as a solid starting outfielder.
Upside: 9.0, Downside: 2.3
Outfielder #3: Jake Skole. Skole was largely considered an overdraft as the 15th overall pick last year, and didn’t blow anyone away in the Northwest League, hitting .254/.327/.348 and being a non-factor (6-for-10) on the bases. At age 18, he was young for the level, and didn’t completely flail, so he’s hardly an unqualified disaster and remains a solid sleeper prospect. He’ll need to come up with more power or speed to project as more than a fourth outfielder, but has plenty of time.
Upside: 8.6, Downside: 2.0
Starting Pitcher #1: Martin Perez. I remain ridiculously high on Perez, dropping him only from 3rd on my 2009 list to 5th this year:
"Let’s not overreact to Perez’s 5.96 ERA this year—he was 19 in Double-A, his FIP (at 4.24) was far better, and he still managed to strike out over a batter per inning. Perez’s control did suffer, but his high BABIP and low strand rate were largely out of his control, so it’s tough to dock the guy points for that. Perez is similar to [Yankees lefty and #6 prospect Manny] Banuelos, except he’s slightly bigger and his curve, not his changeup, is his go-to offspeed pitch. He ranks above Banuelos because he was pitching a level higher at the same age. They’re the two best lefty prospects in the minors right now."
Upside: 9.7, Downside: 5.7
Starting Pitcher #2: Robbie Erlin. Erlin ranked 39th:
"Erlin’s only a few months older than [Twins righthander and #40 prospect Adrian] Salcedo, but he’s coming off an impressive year in Low-A in which he posted his own ridiculous K/BB (125/17 in 114 2/3 innings). Few, if any, teenagers can boast curves as tight as his, and Erlin brings good velocity for a lefty as well. Add in his superior command, and you have yet another budding ace in this 2009 3rd-rounder."
Upside: 9.1, Downside: 4.1
Starting Pitcher #3: Joe Wieland. Wieland ranked 65th:
"Like [Rays righthander and #66 prospect Alex] Cobb, Wieland pitched to contact in the lower minors, but he saw his strikeout rate jump in 2010. In his case, the whiff increase came after a midseason promotion from Low-A to High-A, and there’s certainly never a better time for a prospect to start missing bats than when he hits the Cal League.What sets Wieland apart, like Cobb, is his impeccable control, as he walked just ten batters in his 59 Cal League innings to go with the 62 whiffs. He keeps his low-90’s heater in the bottom of the zone and pairs it with a hard breaking ball and a solid changeup. As with Cobb, that isn’t the sort of pitcher who fits best at the front of a rotation, but works great as a second fiddle to a flashier ace (Martin Perez?)."
Upside: 8.6, Downside: 5.6
Starting Pitcher #4: Miguel De Los Santos. De Los Santos came in at #85:
"De Los Santos struck out 50 batters in 32 short-season innings, but managed to top that by whiffing a whopping 62 in 38 1/3 frames after being promoted to Low-A. Few, if any, minor league starting pitchers could boast that sort of strikeout rate—over half of the lefty’s outs were Ks.The lefthander throws hard, reaching the 95-96 mph range, and his changeup is already a plus pitch, featuring screwball-like movement. His fastball-changeup combo could be enough to make him a successful MLB pitcher, a la Cole Hamels, but De Los Santos also features a solid curveball.He’s still rough around the edges, walking 44 batters in 70 1/3 innings last year, but with a whopping 112 whiffs, he’s doing a whole lot right."
Upside: 9.5, Downside: 3.5
Starting Pitcher #5: Matt Thompson. Thompson is a projectable righty who already boasts a plus curve and low-90′s sinking heat, and he breezed through Low-A with a 130/23 K/BB in 129 1/3 innings. He’s had high BABIPs thus far in his career (.378 in 2010), which is a slight concern, but with two good pitches, plus command, and projectability, Thompson’s yet another very interesting arm. His youth only adds intrigue.
Upside: 8.7, Downside: 3.1
Relief Pitcher #1: Tanner Scheppers. Scheppers had a weird season in which he was yo-yo’d around between the rotation and the bullpen. He emphatically solved Double-A (19/0 K/BB in 11 innings), but Triple-A was more of a mixed bag. It was just his first pro season, so we should cut him some slack for that–Scheppers managed a 71/30 K/BB in 69 innings at Triple-A basically straight out of college and in the midst of all the turmoil about his role. He still projects as an impact reliever with his mid-90′s heat and plus breaking ball.
Upside: 8.6, Downside: 6.0
Relief Pitcher #2: Joseph Ortiz. Is this another Tim Collins situation? Ortiz is a Collins-esque lefty listed at 5’7″ but with big numbers. As a 19-year-old in Low-A, he posted a 59/5 K/BB in 42 innings, allowing only 30 hits, seven earned runs, and two homers. He’s got a hard sinker around 90 and a big slider, again similar to Collins (though Collins uses a curveball). With his combination of stuff, deception, and impressive command, Ortiz is an interesting prospect who could evolve into a shutdown lefty middleman.
Upside: 8.4, Downside: 3.2