Finally, I get to be sure that I know what I’m talking about! Or maybe this is the system I should be least sure of my own knowledge.
Being an A’s fan, I obviously have an intimate familiarity with even very obscure Oakland prospects. That’s great for informational purposes, but obviously, I have a lot invested in some of these guys, so it was a struggle to separate my favorite A’s prospects from the best ones. Thankfully, I think I suppressed that urge enough that you won’t be reading about Mike Benacka and Tommy Everidge.
System Overview:
Even as an A’s fan, I hadn’t really sat down and taken stock of the system in several months, and I was surprised to find how little I was impressed by the talent.
I’m not huge on Grant Green, Michael Taylor really slipped in 2009, and Michael Choice struck out way too often in his pro debut for me to be comfortable with him. Jemile Weeks keeps getting hurt, Adrian Cardenas keeps moving down the defensive spectrum and can’t hit Triple-A pitching, Max Stassi couldn’t hit anything in Low-A…it’s been quite the downturn. Even my big sleeper prospect, Rashun Dixon, has a lot of issues that need to be addressed.
The pitching is even less impressive. Few guys jump out as having any chance of being a #2 starter, and while there’s some depth in the number of back-of-the-rotation and bullpen arms, it’s not great.
Now, the A’s have a very solid group of youngsters in the majors now, particularly on the mound, so minor league pitching isn’t a huge need right now. Still, though, it’d be nice to see some higher-upside guys in the system.
As for my picks…I was torn at catcher between Stassi, Josh Donaldson, and Ryan Ortiz, and I even considered Petey Paramore before dismissing him due to the combination of bad power and bad contact. If Ortiz had been healthy in all of 2010, I probably would like him far more.
Yes, putting Dixon as the top outfielder is extremely premature, and you won’t see it done anywhere else. But that’s just part of my methodology: I enjoy taking risks. If I’m right, you learned something. If I’m wrong, I learned something. Either way, one of us gets new perspective on prospects. I really have a feeling about Dixon, and find him criminally underrated.
I think the rest of my hitting picks are pretty vanilla. Weeks/Cardenas/Eric Sogard was somewhat tough, but everything else falls in line fairly obviously.
Pitching was a mess, as, like I said, I felt like I was just debating about eight guys with third/fourth starter upsides. I wouldn’t be surprised if I’d order them differently a week from now, but I did my best on that front. I was standard with my two relievers.
Catcher: Max Stassi. Stassi is one of those players who is drafted to be one type of player and winds up quite the opposite. He was supposed to be an offensive catcher, but his first full season saw him hit .220/.310/.380 with a terrible 34.3% strikeout rate. However, he showed surprising acumen as a receiver and threw out 34% of runners. He did manage some power numbers in a pitcher-friendly environment, and most importantly, he was very young for the level, so he could rebound, but he’ll need to get his whiffing in check.
Upside: 8.5, Downside: 2.6
First base: Chris Carter. Carter ranked #22 on my Top 100 Prospects List, the #1 Oakland prospect:
"Carter’s .258/.365/.529 Triple-A line was something of a disappointment this year, which tells you how high the expectations were for him, but also does show that Carter, whom many expected to be the A’s Opening Day DH or right fielder this past year, certainly didn’t convert his skeptics in 2010. Add in a disastrous first few games in the majors, and Carter starts to look like he’s slipping, but he did show signs of life at the tail end of the year, and his offensive ceiling, particularly power-wise, remains right there with anyone in the minors."
Upside: 9.3, Downside: 6.6
Second base: Adrian Cardenas. Cardenas has clearly solved Double-A pitching, as he hit .345/.436/.469 there last year and .326/.392/.442 the year before. After flailing in the PCL in 2009, he continued to do so in early 2010, but after the demotion to Double-A, Cardenas morphed back into what we’d expect from a player with such excellent contact skills. Upon returning to Triple-A late in the year, the 22-year-old hit .313/.362/.385 in 27 games, reasserting the line drive stroke that’s worked so well for him in the low minors. Defense is an issue, as he’s already been moved off of second base over to third, only to be re-tried at second in hopes that his relatively powerless bat can stay at an up-the-middle position. While he has contact and plate discipline skills, that’s pretty much the sum of his offense, and staying at second will be key.
Upside: 8.4, Downside: 5.7
Shortstop: Grant Green. Green hit .318/.363/.520 this past year, but all sorts of problems lay beneath the surface. His 117/38 K/BB isn’t going to cut it, he was playing in the Cal League, he was overmatched in the Arizona Fall League (.200/.234/.244), and scouts think he may have to move to second down the line. Green’s got good power for a shortstop, but one wonders if he’s in danger of falling into the Khalil Greene career path. Double-A will be a huge test for this somewhat overrated prospect; this A’s fan is hoping Green can polish himself up and adapt.
Upside: 8.6, Downside: 4.1
Third base: Stephen Parker. Often mentioned as a top sleeper, Parker’s .296/.392/.508 season also comes with the Cal League/poor defense caveats, but he’s got a much better grasp of the strike zone than Green and impressed in the Fall League as well. If Parker can stay at third base, he could be a solid offensive contributor with 20-HR power and plus on-base skills.
Upside: 8.2, Downside: 4.5
Outfielder #1: Rashun Dixon. Dixon was the #64 prospect on my Top 100:
"People love to talk about Aaron Hicks, but Dixon is a very similar player, and he gets very little hype in prospect circles. Dixon hit .275/.371/.383 in the Midwest League, to Hicks’ .279/.401/.428, but Dixon is a year younger and was getting his first crack at the level (after flopping in short-season the year before, no less). A projectable outfielder with solid defensive ability, Dixon, like Hicks, needs to cut the strikeouts (30.4%), but flashes impressive plate discipline for his age and experience. Expect Hicks to have slightly more speed and defense, while Dixon has a better shot at being a 20-HR guy. Both should be above-average MLB outfielders."
Upside: 9.3, Downside: 3.1
Outfielder #2: Michael Choice. Choice edged his way onto the Top 100 at #96:
"The 10th overall pick in the 2010 draft, Choice hit .288/.388/.627 in short-season ball in his pro debut at age 20. He offers a Jack Cust-esque power and patience combo, but unlike Cust, he’s a plus defender in the outfield who may even be able to handle center in the majors.Unfortunately, Choice has borrowed Cust’s tendency to strike out in bunches, and he whiffed 43 times in 27 games in his pro debut. That’s the sort of thing that’ll catch up to a hitter quickly, although at least he has the patience to help his OBP out with walks, something a guy like [Arizona first baseman and #98 prospect Paul] Goldschmidt could use more of.2011 will be a big test for Choice, who could easily make this ranking look silly in either a positive or negative direction."
Upside: 9.5, Downside: 3.5
Outfielder #3: Michael Taylor. Big things were expected from Taylor after the A’s acquired him, as Taylor had put up some numbers, even in Double-A, that would make MLB 2K11 players jealous. It wasn’t to be, though, as he constantly struggled with his swing in Triple-A, hitting a “meh” .272/.348/.392. His AFL performance was okay, but the .560-.570 SLG and mid-.300s averages have yet to materialize. At 25, Taylor remains an imposing physical presence who may yet round into a plus MLB player, but his 2010 is extremely concerning, scouts didn’t like what they saw, and his stock has dropped drastically.
Upside: 9.2, Downside: 6.0
Starting Pitcher #1: Matt Thomson. With absolutely nobody stepping up and claiming this spot in the Oakland system, I went ahead and gave it to sleeper Thomson, a 2010 12th-rounder. The fact that someone with that background is already the #1 starter prospect in the system says a lot about the general lack of pitching upside here, but it also says a lot about how much Thomson impressed in his first season. The 22-year-old righty posted a 61/8 K/BB in 46 short-season innings, and to top it off, he whiffed ten in five scoreless frames in a Cal League spot start. Thomson also didn’t allow a home run all season, and scouts reported that his velocity had jumped from his days at the University of San Diego–this isn’t a case of a finesse pitcher carving up low-minors hitters on guile alone.
Upside: 8.3, Downside: 3.4
Starting Pitcher #2: Ian Krol. Unlike Thomson, Krol is a much more known quantity, even though he was a teenager in A-ball. He’s not projectable and is basically going to be working with the same average-across-the-board three-pitch mix his whole career. He’s very polished, particularly with his command, and that allowed him to succeed against far older hitters, but his upside is in the Paul Maholm range, maybe slightly higher.
Upside: 8.1, Downside: 4.5
Starting Pitcher #3: Shawn Haviland. Always old for his levels, the late-round draftee and Harvard product is an intelligent pitcher with a varied arsenal. 166/40 K/BB in 150 1/3 innings is tough to overlook, even from a 24-year-old in A-ball, when the pitcher in question has good velocity and three or four interesting offspeed offerings. Reports indicated Haviland got in much better shape in 2010, which keyed his breakout season–he’ll have to maintain his conditioning and move quickly from here on out, but could be an innings-eating fourth starter.
Upside: 8.2, Downside: 4.7
Starting Pitcher #4: Argenis Paez. Few overhand pitchers generate as much sink as Paez, who also has a plus overhand curveball that serves as his out pitch. When combined with his tremendous sinker, Paez has a groundball arsenal that also generates a whiff here and there, which is an intriguing package for a projectable teenage arm. Paez has yet to get out of Rookie ball, but he’s developed some very advanced skills at a young age and bears close watching.
Upside: 8.7, Downside: 1.7
Starting Pitcher #5: Ben Hornbeck. The finesse lefty Hornbeck put up some incredible numbers in the Cal League in both 2009 and 2010, but was rocked in a Double-A stint in early 2010, seeing his K/BB cut in more than half. With a plus-plus changeup and good groundball ability, Hornbeck bears watching, but the Double-A troubles are a huge red flag, indicating he may just be a trick pitcher whom upper-level hitters feast on. 2011 will be his last chance to remain a starter and avoid a bullpen specialist fate.
Upside: 7.8, Downside: 4.2
Relief Pitcher #1: Fautino De Los Santos. After falling off the map due to arm problems, De Los Santos resurfaced as a reliever in 2010, striking out 73 batters across two levels in just 47 1/3 innings. His BABIPs have been high for years, which is something to watch, but his fastball/slider combination is excellent, and the 24-year-old doesn’t come with the command concerns of the usual relief strikeout specialists a la Craig Kimbrel, Henry Rodriguez, or Jeremy Jeffress.
Upside: 9.3, Downside: 6.8
Relief Pitcher #2: Connor Hoehn. Hoehn put up eye-popping numbers as well, and the 20-year-old was young for Low-A. He struck out 101 batters in 87 1/3 innings, and the DC native has good groundball ability as well. His knockout slider was unhittable in 2010. Hoehn does have mechanical issues that lead to below-average command, but he kept his walks to a reasonable four per nine innings in 2010, and he’s got time to figure out his mechanics.
Upside: 8.3, Downside: 3.8