Wrapping up my perusals of AL minor league systems is this look at that of the Seattle Mariners.
System Overview:
Back when I made my Top 100 Prospects List in late August, I put nine Mariners on the list. That was dumb, looking back on it.
The bottom 20 or so prospects on the top 100 were largely a bunch of really interesting sleepers that I wanted to highlight, but most of them really had no business in the Top 100. But three of the more interesting and unique prospects I found were Mariners: Dylan Unsworth, Brandol Perez, and Ji-Man Choi. They’re all intriguing, but none are anything close to Top 100 Prospects.
Thus far in my system rundowns, I’ve been sticking to those Top 100 rankings religiously–if I ranked one player on the Top 100 and not another, the Top 100 player gets the nod over the other, just for consistency’s sake. But here, the cases of Perez and, in particular, Unsworth were too obvious to overlook. I also way overrated Greg Halman in the Top 100–he’s not the 47th best prospect in baseball.
So, I’m deviating from that list here.
Even with all of those caveats, this is still an interesting system. The uncertainty surrounding every High-A hitter (since they play in a ridiculous hitter’s park) is annoying, but this is one of the best collections of offensive talent in the minor leagues. There are no real holes at any position, one of the few systems I can say that about.
The pitching side features one stud pitcher (Michael Pineda) and not that much else; every arm beyond Pineda either has low upside or lots of downside.
Other than my wrangling with my own Top 100 list, this was remarkably easy to put together. On the hitting side, the only thing particularly nonstandard that I did was listing Nate Tenbrink as an outfielder. Pitching was a bit less standard, particularly with my decision to keep Perez as the #4 pitcher.
Catcher: Ji-Man Choi. Even though I don’t view Choi as a top 100 prospect anymore, I still do really like him, so I’ll go ahead and post my top 100 writeup of him, when he ranked 88th:
"Another one of these sleeper guys who nobody’s heard of, Choi spent most of 2010 tearing up the Arizona League at a .378/.459/.541 clip before turning in a .302/.380/.442 line in a brief High-A run at age 19. Teenage catchers who can hit High-A pitching are a rarity, as I’m sure you know.Beneath the surface, there are some issues with Choi—he strikes out too much to sustain this sort of ridiculous batting average, he’s still raw defensively, and his High-A performance is tempered by a) a small sample and b) the fact that it came with High Desert, a ridiculous hitter’s haven. Still, if he keeps hitting and can stay behind the plate, Choi holds tremendous promise."
Upside: 8.7, Downside: 3.4
First base: Rich Poythress. Poythress didn’t even make John Sickels’ Top 20 Mariners prospects, but I’m very firm on my high regard for him. He ranked 75th on my Top 100:
"Poythress hit .315/.381/.560 in High-A and showed good strike zone control for a slugger, whiffing just 100 times in 123 games. Still, he’s a 23-year-old first baseman who played half his games in High Desert, so there are certainly some caveats to Poythress’ performance. He could develop into a solid middle-of-the-order bat, but isn’t likely to be a star, like a right-handed Adam LaRoche of sorts."
Upside: 8.9, Downside: 4.5
Second base: Dustin Ackley. Ackley ranked 71st, but my writeup then came before his mammoth AFL performance, where he hit .424/.581/.758 with an 11/26 K/BB and fourteen extra-base hits in 20 games. So I’ve certainly lightened up my criticism since I wrote this:
"Some prospects are easier to rank than others. [Indians outfielder and #72 prospect Nick] Weglarz, for example, is a pretty standard-issue walks and power guy. Others are more difficult because of their unusual circumstances. Ackley is certainly one of the toughest to rank in this year’s list.On the surface, he’s a 22-year-old defensively-challenged second baseman who hit .260/.386/.381 in Double-A and .274/.338/.439 in Triple-A. Hardly top 100 material, right?But, of course, he’s a former #2 overall pick who was dropped straight into Double-A, with a position switch from first base to second base on top of that. Ackley was miserable early in the year before picking himself up and turning in respectable numbers. Thanks to his pedigree and turnaround, many people rank Ackley much higher than this.I’m splitting the difference. The big question here is whether Ackley holding his own early in his pro career means he’ll explode now that he has experience, or simply continue in this path. If he explodes, we’re talking about a stud leadoff hitter who’s always on base: a .310/.410/.450 type hitter. If not, then Ackley’s probably just a workmanlike starter a la Mike Fontenot, which is hardly interesting. I do worry about his K/BB going from 41/55 in Double-A to 38/20 in Triple-A. Sure, his power went up, but that’s largely due to the difference in environments. After one year of pro ball, there’s still a slew of directions Ackley’s career could go. It may not be until 2013 before the Mariners can truly know what they have in him."
Upside: 9.2, Downside: 6.8
Shortstop: Nick Franklin. Franklin ranked 48th, and thankfully, I have no issues with that nearly six months later:
"Franklin entered 2010 with a reputation as a steady shortstop defender with little hitting skill, which made his 23-homer output in a Low-A pitcher’s league as a teenager so shocking. His .281/.351/.485 line isn’t the best, but it really stands out given his age and position—consider that top prospect Aaron Hicks had a lower average and slugging at the same level even though he was born a year and a half after Franklin (which explains why Franklin is 19 spots ahead of Hicks on my list). The breakout came so out-of-nowhere that some skepticism is warranted, particularly since Franklin isn’t a particularly adept contact hitter. Still, he could be a power-hitting shortstop with plus defense, and those two skills alone add up to good MLB value (see Gonzalez, Alex)."
Upside: 9.3, Downside: 3.7
Third base: Alex Liddi. In 2010, Liddi proved his 2009 numbers were part for-real and part High Desert, as his .281/.353/.476 line in Double-A was solid but nowhere near the .345/.411/.594 of the previous campaign. Liddi’s strikeout rate is up to a dangerous 28.9%, but he’s got solid pop and a good glove at third base. He projects as a Joe Crede sort of player.
Upside: 8.1, Downside: 4.7
Outfielder #1: Johermyn Chavez. Chavez ranked 62nd on the Top 100:
"It’s always annoying to deal with Cal League hitters in prospect rankings, so it’s tough to know if Chavez’s 32 homers are for real. But he gets bonus points for 1) whiffing less than once a game and 2) being 21 years old, younger than fellow Cal League sluggers Rich Poythress and Paul Goldschmidt. With his combination of plus power and decent hitting skills and athleticism, Chavez could be a Carlos Lee-type player if everything breaks right for him."
Upside: 9.0, Downside: 4.6
Outfielder #2: Greg Halman. Halman was 47th, but I’ve gotten less enthusiastic about him since then:
"I’ve pretty much given up trying to figure out Greg Halman. The guy whiffed in 40% of his plate appearances in Double-A in 2009 and still hit 25 homers; he then came back in 2010 and cut his strikeout rate all of 0.1%, yet somehow managed to slug .545 in AAA. Obviously, he’s got rare power, and Halman’s a plus defender and runner as well, so he’s not just a one-dimensional slugger. He did improve his plate discipline in 2010, so at least he’s working walks now, but the ridiculous whiff numbers need to come down at some point. It didn’t work in a brief big league cameo, but Halman’s just 23, so he has time to tighten up his strike zone. If he can, there’s 50-HR potential here, which, combined with the good speed and defense, makes him a valuable player even if he’s hitting .240."
Upside: 9.8, Downside: 5.5 (obviously, the strikeout issues mean he’s more likely to be in the 6′s than anywhere else)
Outfielder #3: Nate Tenbrink. Tenbrink’s played at a number of different positions, but if Liddi sticks at third, Tenbrink will likely become a plus defensive corner outfielder who moonlights at third, sort of a pre-2010 Jose Bautista. Tenbrink posted some insane numbers in everyone’s favorite offense-inflating league (.383/.455/.651) and, like Liddi, came down to earth but stayed solid in Double-A (.274/.381/.427). He has an excellent approach at the plate, gap power, and defensive versatility, and Tenbrink even went 26-for-29 in steals. He turned 24 last month, so he isn’t young, but Tenbrink could be a solid starter or useful Mark DeRosa type “utility starter,” starting nearly every day at some position or another.
Upside: 8.5, Downside: 5.0
Starting Pitcher #1: Michael Pineda. I’m not sure I’d still rank Pineda 4th on the Top 100 (man, I really screwed this system up, didn’t I), but I’m still damn high on him:
"Pineda’s another guy who cracked my top 20 and virtually nobody else’s last year, but he finally stayed healthy and continued to show [Jeremy] Hellickson-esque command in 2010, rocketing him up prospect lists. Who wouldn’t take a guy with a 76/17 K/BB in 62 1/3 Triple-A innings at age 21? Pineda’s a huge, beefy righty who has less in the way of power stuff than one would think, with a low-90’s fastball, an out-pitch changeup, and iffy breaking stuff, but that’s plenty if you know where the ball’s going every time—just ask 1990’s Braves fans."
Upside: 9.4, Downside: 7.0
Starting Pitcher #2: Mauricio Robles. Robles struck out over a batter per inning in both Double-A and Triple-A at age 21, which makes him worth watching. The undersized lefty will probably lose some of the strikeouts later on as he refines his command, but he’s got MLB-caliber velocity, sitting around 91-92 mph and touching 94. Both his changeup and curveball are solid pitches as well. He doesn’t have incredibly high upside, but Robles could be a solid mid-rotation starter.
Upside: 8.2, Downside: 5.1
Starting Pitcher #3: Taijuan Walker. Walker has barely pitched in the minors, and he’s got a lot to work on–his mechanics are messy and his changeup is virtually nonexistent. Still, he holds a lot of promise as a power righty who touches 97 mph and has a hard curveball that already rates as plus. If he can avoid arm problems and refine the changeup his status could rise dramatically; even without the changeup, he could become an excellent reliever.
Upside: 8.7, Downside: 1.9
Starting Pitcher #4: Brandol Perez. I love Perez, maybe not enough to rank him 81st in the Top 100 anymore, but I still think he’s fascinating:
"Perez has the distinction of being the only player on this list that has yet to play US ball.What did he do down in the Dominican that was so special, you ask? Try a 0.19 ERA.That’s one earned run in 48 1/3 innings. That sort of thing doesn’t happen often, and Perez didn’t turn 17 until last month, so he was young for the DSL as well. With a 68/14 K/BB ratio, he’s got the peripherals to back up the shiny ERA (okay, his FIP is 1.26), and he’s a big, projectable lefty who already throws in the upper 80’s at his young age. He uses a hammer curveball as his out pitch, has a decent slider, and his changeup is further along than those of most DSL pitchers.We’ll find out more about Perez’s abilities next year when he comes to America, and like most of the low-level guys on this list, he could make this ranking look silly in either a positive or negative direction in two years. But if there’s any DSL/VSL prospect casual prospect followers need to know about right now, Perez is the guy."
Upside: 9.1, Downside: 1.1
Starting Pitcher #5: Jonathan Hesketh. We go from the upside and intrigue of Walker and Perez to the relative safety of Hesketh, a 24-year-old who hasn’t even seen Double-A yet. Still, he survived High Desert, which has to count for something, and Hesketh struck out 144 batters in just 127 2/3 innings. While he was old for his levels, it was just his first full pro season, and Hesketh’s pro track record is spotless. He’ll need better command to stay a starting pitcher at the higher levels, particularly since he’s not very big and doesn’t have much velocity.
Upside: 6.8, Downside: 3.6
Relief Pitcher #1: Stephen Pryor. Pryor is a power closer from the 2010 draft who immediately silenced Low-A bats–between there and short-season, the 21-year-old struck out 55 in 35 1/3 innings while allowing no homers and just 13 walks. His fastball touches 97, which in itself was enough to overwhelm low-minors hitters. Pryor also has plus command and intimidating size, but he’ll need a better slider to dominate the majors someday. He’s got time to work on that.
Upside: 8.9, Downside: 3.4
Relief Pitcher #2: Brian Moran. The opposite of Pryor, Moran is a finesse lefty out of UNC who nobody noticed much until he passed the High Desert test with flying colors (no homers, 29/2 K/BB). He posted a 78/9 K/BB across three levels and 67 2/3 innings at age 21. He probably doesn’t have the raw stuff to dominate in the majors, but he’s got an upper-80′s fastball, plus splitter, deceptive mechanics, and plus command. That certainly gives him a shot to be an above-average MLB reliever.
Upside: 7.8, Downside: 4.1