Veteran righthander Freddy Garcia has long stated his preference to join the New York Yankees in 2011, and on Monday, he got his wish, inking a minor league deal that will pay him $1.5 million if he makes the club.
On the surface, Garcia-to-the-Yanks appears to be a solid match: a proven commodity attempting to end his career on a high note, while a team built to win now makes sure it has experienced arms at the back end of its rotation.
It’s not that simple, though, and there are a number of problems with Garcia becoming a starter for the Bronx Bombers.
First, let’s consider the Yankees’ other rotation options, assuming Andy Pettitte doesn’t return in 2011 and they make no other significant signings.
Ivan Nova–proven Triple-A pitcher, 4.36 FIP in 42 career innings.
Sergio Mitre–4.69 FIP last year, 4.72 career.
Bartolo Colon
David Phelps
Garcia needs to put up at least a 4.50 FIP or so to outdo Nova and Phelps, and possibly Colon as well (we’ll see what the portly righthander looks like in the spring before projecting specific numbers). Even Mitre has some respectability.
Garcia has posted a sub-4.00 FIP exactly once from 2006-2010, which was in a nine-start stint in 2009. Right off the bat, we get the picture of a pitcher who is probably, at best, as good as the other options involved.
At 34 years of age, Garcia is a total finesse pitcher at this point in his career. His fastball sits in the 85-89 mph range, and he rarely even uses it anymore, instead throwing a mixture of sliders, changeups, and splitters. Throwing so many sliders and splits makes him a durability risk, so he’s almost certain to not top 200 innings–in fact, he’s only made it through 60 frames once in the past four years (last year).
Garcia’s plus changeup remains an effective pitch, but it’s the only big weapon he’s got left, and while that might make him a nice fifth starter on the Pirates, it doesn’t really advance the Yankees’ goals. Given his long injury history and current mediocrity, it’s not like he’d fetch much as a deadline trade chip, if the Yankees decided to completely break character and go that route.
Furthermore, Garcia’s a flyball pitcher moving to the AL East, where he’ll face tons of power hitters, half the time in Yankee Stadium. It’s not like the rival Red Sox’s park will be favorable to him either. Of course, U.S. Cellular Field, which Garcia called home the past two seasons, isn’t exactly a pitcher’s haven either, but Yankee Stadium is probably even more extreme, and most of the AL Central parks aside from Chicago’s are pitcher-friendly, while the AL East ones generally aren’t.
At 34, Garcia isn’t getting any younger, and he’s only likely to decline from his current modest ability. He’s by no means an awful pitcher, but he’s not the sort of arm who pushes a contender to a championship–he’s more suited to a non-contender looking for someone to soak up innings.
Understandably, that’s not how Garcia wants to go out, and credit him for knowing he doesn’t have much left and going for his dream. I also don’t want to act like this is some sort of terrible move for the Yankees–they brought the guy in on a minor league deal, after all, so if he doesn’t outpitch his competition in the spring, they can just cut him and be out very little. The danger here, of course, is that they give a rotation slot to Garcia just for the sake of having a veteran starter even if he fails to win the job with his performance. Since I find it hard to believe that he will ultimately deserve the job, the prospect of him getting it anyway is kind of unsettling (not that I have any rooting interest in the Yankees; I just like to see people make correct decisions), particularly because it pushes the most deserving candidate (Phelps) further and further away from the job he deserves.