Continuing my journey through the land of prospects, I bring you the twentieth system rundown: that of the Chicago Cubs. The Matt Garza trade gutted many of the organization’s top prospects; what do the North Siders have left? Let’s find out.
System Overview:
I was a big fan of every player the Cubs gave up in the Matt Garza deal, so it’s certainly true that Chicago’s system is worse off now. Still, there’s plenty to be had.
Overall, the Cubs’ hitting is solid all-around. I’m not a fan of Josh Vitters at all, due to his approach, and he doesn’t even appear here because I don’t find him to be the best 3B in the system; still, the hitting as a whole doesn’t grade out that poorly. Brett Jackson is a nice player, and while he’s the only guy who looks to be a well-above-average MLB starter, nearly every position boasts a player of some use.
The pitching is trickier. I love Trey McNutt and am intrigued by Hayden Simpson, but after that, everything gets murky. There are some middling, overhyped (in my opinion) upper-minors arms and then some interesting but flawed lower-minors arms. I waffled back and forth on which ones to put in the third, fourth, and fifth slots, so I’d find it totally understandable if you don’t agree with my selections there. It’s a deep crop of pitchers, but beyond McNutt and Simpson, everyone has some sort of issue, being either low-upside or low-downside.
The biggest positions of weakness are first base (as usual) and pitching, so those took the most deliberation for me. Obviously, taking Marquez Smith over Vitters is controversial, but I stand by it–maybe I’ll devote a full article to the two sometime in the future. I already mentioned my take on the pitching, and while I know that’s different from the norm and may draw some ire from fans, I felt it necessary to post it anyway–the more opinions are out there on prospects, the more discussion can be had. And yes, the odd men out were Chris Carpenter, Austin Reed, and Robinson Lopez–I know Carpenter and Lopez certainly appear above Chris Rusin and Austin Kirk on most other lists. I find Reed interesting, but think Carpenter and Lopez are overhyped. Maybe it’s just me, but I’m just throwing my opinion out there.
Catcher: Welington Castillo. Castillo was overshadowed by the since-traded Robinson Chirinos, but he’s still around, and Castillo even got to the majors last year, going 6-for-20 with a homer. He hit .255/.317/.498 in Triple-A, showcasing good power but showing a poor approach at the plate. With a good arm, Castillo cut down 39% of runners, but the rest of his defensive skills aren’t particularly good. At 24, he still has time to hone his receiving and plate discipline; the arm and power should at least give him a backup’s career. If all breaks right, Castillo could be Miguel Olivo 2.0.
Upside: 8.3, Downside: 6.3
First base: Russ Canzler. Canzler’s been kicking around the minors since being drafted in the 30th round in 2004, and yet he isn’t even 25 yet. At long last, he put up good numbers in the upper minors in 2010, hitting .287/.372/.566 in Double-A. However, he wasn’t young for the level, and while Canzler has decent contact skills for a slugger, he doesn’t have the plate discipline to put his power to good use in the majors. If he could stick at third base, where he played 56 games last year, he might be a semi-interesting prospect, but he fielded .878 there. Canzler is similar to former Cub Jake Fox, except he can’t even try to catch.
Upside: 7.4, Downside: 5.3
Second base: D.J. LeMahieu. LeMahieu hit .314/.346/.386 in a tough High-A environment in his first full pro season, which is excellent for a middle infielder. He played short, third, and second base, and likely will slot in as a utilityman in the majors. In order to become a consistent starter, he’ll need to develop his patience and/or power, but his contact bat and versatility should at least give him Aaron Miles‘ career. Sorry for bringing up Miles, Cubs fans–I don’t mean the version that played for you in 2009.
Upside: 8.1, Downside: 4.9
Shortstop: Darwin Barney. A good defender at short, Barney hit .299/.333/.378 in Triple-A and .241/.294/.291 in the majors last year at age 24. Like LeMahieu, he’s got to find more discipline and/or power to thrive in the majors, but his glove alone should get him a utility career.
Upside: 7.4, Downside: 6.6
Third base: Marquez Smith. Smith doesn’t get talked about much, mainly because he’ll be 26 when the season starts. Still, though, he put together a .314/.384/.574 line in Triple-A last year, and scouts like his defense at the hot corner. Smith combines 20-30 homer pop with an okayish approach at the plate and good defense, which makes him Kevin Kouzmanoff at the worst.
Upside: 8.5, Downside: 6.8
Outfielder #1: Brett Jackson. Jackson was the only Cub hitter on my Top 100 Prospects, edging on at #89:
"Jackson is an all-around talent who put together a fine 2010 between High-A and Double-A, walking 73 times and stealing 30 bases while hitting .297 with twelve homers. Jackson just recently turned 22, he’s already ready for Triple-A, and he looks like a guy who can contribute in every facet of the game (he also plays a quality center field). The one thing holding him back? Jackson whiffed 126 times this past season, including 63 in 61 Double-A games. He’s got to keep the whiffs down to project as an All-Star, particularly since he hasn’t quite developed huge power yet."
Upside: 9.0, Downside: 6.2
Outfielder #2: Reggie Golden. Golden has even higher upside than Jackson, but the second-round pick has yet to play in pro ball and is completely untested. Scouts rave about his five-tool ability, but he’s a raw high school hitter who’s as likely to turn into Anthony Hewitt as he is to turn into Justin Upton. Obviously, there’s a ton of intrigue here, but let’s not get carried away until we see how Golden handles pro pitching.
Upside: 9.4, Downside: 1.5
Outfielder #3: Brad Snyder. Snyder, like Smith, has put up big numbers in Triple-A and is ready to help now. 29 in May, Snyder is very old for a prospect, and did very little in brief MLB action in 2009, but he hit .308/.381/.568 in Triple-A. Snyder not only brings many hitting skills to the table, but he also has speed (19-for-23 in steals) and solid defensive ability–he’s a solid right fielder who can even play center if needed. The 2003 first-rounder could be a useful bench bat right now, and could even start if he adapts well and keeps his strikeouts down.
Upside: 8.1, Downside: 6.7
Starting Pitcher #1: Trey McNutt. Easily the best prospect in the system, McNutt ranked 42nd on my Top 100:
"A late-round pick in the ’09 draft, McNutt buzzed all the way up to Double-A just 13 months after being drafted, and right after his 21st birthday. He left behind a ton of confused A-ball hitters in his wake, whiffing well over ten batters per nine at both Cubs A-ball levels. With a big, projectable frame and knockout fastball/curveball combo, he’s got the stuff to match the stats, and could be a decent #1 or excellent #2 starter."
Upside: 9.3, Downside: 6.3
Starting Pitcher #2: Hayden Simpson. A total shock as the 16th overall pick last year out of obscure Division II Southern Arkansas, Simpson, like Golden, has yet to play in pro ball, but could be an excellent prospect if he adjusts to the pro game. It’s anyone’s guess as to how Simpson’s D2 dominance will translate to the pros, but Simpson isn’t short on talent. He throws his fastball in the 90-96 mph range, backed up by a hard curveball that should be a solid-average pitch. He’s not big, and needs to work on his changeup and his durability, but Simpson has the raw tools to be a solid mid-rotation starter.
Upside: 9.1, Downside: 2.7
Starting Pitcher #3: Austin Kirk. I’m higher on Kirk than most. He’s not an imposing pitcher, working with a Barry Zito-esque mid-to-upper-80’s fastball and big curveball, but Kirk has excellent command and his fastball gets a ton of run and sink, making it tough to do much with. The 2009 third-rounder is just 20, but he strung together a nice year between short-season and Low-A, with a 65/21 K/BB in 64 1/3 innings. Kirk has to work to do with his offspeed stuff, but he could turn into a more groundball-oriented version of Ted Lilly. Obviously, comparisons to a pitcher like Lilly are hyperbole at this point, though.
Upside: 8.4, Downside: 3.2
Starting Pitcher #4: Jay Jackson. Jackson isn’t doing to dominate, but he’s already a proven Triple-A pitcher who should be able to have a solid career as a fourth starter or setup man. The big righty has a four-pitch, average-across-the-board mix, and he’s only 23. His 6.8 K/9 in Triple-A is telling, particularly for a flyball pitcher, but Jackson doesn’t walk many and can eat innings.
Upside: 7.7, Downside: 6.4
Starting Pitcher #5: Chris Rusin. Rusin, like Jackson, isn’t a high-upside guy, but the finesse lefty had nothing but success in 2010, with a 99/19 K/BB in 110 innings between High-A and Double-A. Already 24, he’s not young for his level, but Rusin throws strikes and keeps the ball down, which could be enough to give him a back-of-the-rotation or middle relief career. Picked a round after Kirk in the 2009 draft, he’s advanced quickly and is better than people give him credit for.
Upside: 7.8, Downside: 5.1
Relief Pitcher #1: Aaron Kurcz. Short-season relievers rarely are interesting, but Kurcz, a 2010 tenth-rounder, immediately burst on the scene by whiffing 46 batters in 26 1/3 short-season innings as a teenager. A college teammate of Bryce Harper’s, Kurcz, like Simpson, is a small righty with a big fastball. Kurcz also brings a solid curveball, and his two-pitch mix should put him on the fast track to a solid career in relief.
Upside: 8.6, Downside: 3.7
Relief Pitcher #2: Marcos Mateo. Mateo put up a 26/9 K/BB in 21 2/3 MLB innings last year, but the flyballer was also tagged for six homers. It’s too small a sample size to see if that’ll be a major problem or not, but Mateo is almost 27 and will need to avoid slipping up; he barely even pitched in Triple-A before coming to the majors. While he has a knockout slider, Mateo’s 92-95 mph fastball lacks movement, which leads to the flyball/homer trouble. He should have a passable career anyway, but Mateo will need to spot the fastball better or get more movement with it to avoid a Jorge Julio sort of flameout.
Upside: 8.2, Downside: 6.8