When we think of first basemen, we think of big guys with lots of power and little defensive skill, like Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder. Offense really is the only prerequisite for the position–if you can stand out there and not completely embarrass yourself, you can probably play first base in the majors, provided you hit enough.
It would stand to reason, then, that it’s easier to find a major league first baseman than, say, a catcher. After all, if a first baseman just has to contribute in one facet of the game (offense), then you’d think they’d be more populous than players who play positions that require both offensive and defensive ability.
In doing my system rundowns the past couple of months, I’ve been looking at the best prospects at each position in each system, and much to my surprise, first base is rarely a position of strength. How is that?
Without regaling you of tales of thirty first base prospects, let me instead begin by looking at the current first basemen in the major leagues. Here’s a list of the regular 1Bs of 2010, and what position they were drafted at:
Yankees: Mark Teixeira (3B)/Lance Berkman (OF)
Red Sox: Kevin Youkilis (3B)
Blue Jays: Lyle Overbay (1B)
Rays: Carlos Pena (1B)
Orioles: Ty Wigginton (3B)/Garrett Atkins (3B)
White Sox: Paul Konerko (C)/Mark Kotsay (OF)
Tigers: Miguel Cabrera (3B)
Indians: Matt LaPorta (OF)/Andy Marte (3B)/Russell Branyan (3B)
Royals: Billy Butler (3B)/Kila Ka’aihue (1B)
Twins: Justin Morneau (C)/Michael Cuddyer (SS)
Angels: Kendry Morales (OF)/Mike Napoli (C)
Rangers: Chris Davis (3B)/Justin Smoak (1B)/Jorge Cantu (SS)/Mitch Moreland (OF)
Athletics: Daric Barton (C)
Mariners: Russell Branyan (3B)/Justin Smoak (1B)/Casey Kotchman (1B)
Marlins: Gaby Sanchez (C)/Jorge Cantu (SS)
Phillies: Ryan Howard (1B)
Mets: Ike Davis (1B)
Nationals: Adam Dunn (OF)
Braves: Troy Glaus (3B)/Derrek Lee (1B)
Cubs: Derrek Lee (1B)/Xavier Nady (OF)
Cardinals: Albert Pujols (3B)
Reds: Joey Votto (C)
Brewers: Prince Fielder (1B)
Pirates: Garrett Jones (1B)/Jeff Clement (C)
Astros: Lance Berkman (OF)/Brett Wallace (3B)
Giants: Travis Ishikawa (1B)/Aubrey Huff (3B)
Dodgers: James Loney (1B)
Diamondbacks: Adam LaRoche (1B)
Rockies: Jason Giambi (3B)/Todd Helton (1B)
Padres: Adrian Gonzalez (1B)
Wow.
It seems that the majority of MLB first basemen are converted third basemen, and there are even a couple of shortstops and catchers thrown in. It’s staggering to think of many of these players (Giambi, Pujols, Teixeira, Barton, Morales, Butler, Konerko, Branyan, Sanchez, etc.) as anything but first basemen, but when they were coming up through the minors, they played more difficult positions.
Obviously, since the majority of major league first basemen were not minor league first basemen (to be fair, several did switch to first base before coming to the big leagues, but still), it stands to reason that actual minor league first basemen don’t succeed very often. Even of the first basemen listed above, few of the drafted-as-first-basemen became stars–more often, they turned into guys like Overbay, Kotchman, Ishikawa, Loney, or Jones.
If we wanted to make a list of the really excellent MLB first basemen, it would look something like this:
Mark Teixeira (3B)
Kevin Youkilis (3B)
Carlos Pena (1B)
Paul Konerko (C)
Miguel Cabrera (3B)
Justin Morneau (C)
Billy Butler (3B)
Kendry Morales (OF)
Daric Barton (C)
Ryan Howard (1B)
Adam Dunn (OF)
Albert Pujols (3B)
Joey Votto (C)
Prince Fielder (1B)
Adrian Gonzalez (1B)
Aubrey Huff (3B)
Of those sixteen, just four (Pena, Howard, Fielder, and Gonzalez) were drafted as first basemen.
No other position shares this. Sure, shortstops move to second and third, second basemen move to third (and vice versa), and occasionally infielders move to the outfield, but there’s no position that’s anywhere first base in terms of domination by players that came up playing elsewhere.
Of course, the question that arises from this is: Why do so few first base prospects succeed?
The answer is pretty simple. The average first baseman has to hit around .275/.350/.450. Let’s use Gaby Sanchez‘s .273/.341/.448 line from 2010 as a rough approximation of that. If a player puts that line up in Triple-A, it translates to something like .231/.289/.367 in the majors, which is completely unplayable at first.
Let’s say a first baseman puts up Joey Votto‘s 2010 line in Triple-A: .324/.424/.600. That would translate to something like….270/.355/.478, which solid but not spectacular for the position.
Clearly, the guys who wind up at first are the players who can put up Votto-esque Triple-A lines rather than Sanchez-esque ones. The average first base prospect, while usually a decent hitter, just has too many problems to become the elite MLB hitter the average MLB first baseman must be. Usually, minor league first basemen either strike out too much, or don’t walk enough, or don’t have enough power, or have some flaw that just is too massive to allow them put up that minimum .800 OPS.
Take a guy like Mark Trumbo, who hit .301/.368/.577 in Triple-A last year. He’s still not a tremendous prospect, because Trumbo doesn’t have tremendous plate patience, strikes out a fair amount, and was a 24-year-old in a hitter’s park. His line, translated from Triple-A Salt Lake to the major league Angels? .244/.300/.432 with just 26 homers instead of 36. A player who could do that at age 24 may be a useful player in his prime at age 27, but it takes a truly special hitter to be a great MLB first baseman, and Trumbo simply isn’t that caliber of hitter.
In the same vein, Triple-A first basemen who are merely above-average have very little chance of major league success. Twins AAA first baseman Brock Peterson was the fourth-or-fifth-best first sacker in the International League, but his line translates to Minnesota at a .210/.285/.362 clip, with 140 strikeouts in 450 at-bats. No team wants that anywhere, let alone first base.
The moral of the story here is that it’s not too big of a deal if your team has a “hole” at first base in the minor league system. Most teams do, since even a good hitter like Peterson or even Trumbo simply doesn’t excite very much. First base holes are usually filled with elite bats who are moved off of other positions rather than from within. As long as there’s an elite bat somewhere in your team’s system, don’t worry about whether it plays at first base or not.