(Image source: zimbio.com)
At this late hour of the offseason, with pitchers and catchers set to report within the week, few free agents remain. Sure, there’s the odd useful player like Vladimir Guerrero who couldn’t agree to a contract until just now, but most of this week’s transactions have involved guys like Aaron Miles, David Riske, and Mark Kotsay–guys who really can’t be expected to bring much to the table, and whose upside is maybe making some fringe contributions.
And yet somehow, in the midst of all of that, the Red Sox managed to snag a useful arm for a mere $650K, bringing in former Yankee hurler Alfredo Aceves.
Aceves isn’t some sort of stud: he’s a 28-year-old finesse righty with a four-pitch repertoire highlighted by a good cutter/changeup combination. It’s not the sexiest way to pitch, but it’s worked thus far for Aceves, who has a career 3.21 ERA and 4.13 FIP in 126 innings for the Sox’s biggest rivals.
Aceves barely pitched last year, and wasn’t particularly effective in his twelve MLB innings, but in 2009, he was a force, with a 69/16 K/BB in 84 innings. While he doesn’t strike out a lot of batters, the movement on Aceves’ pitches makes him diffcult to square up, leading to low BABIP figures that aid him immensely. He also almost never walks hitters.
While the Yankees used Aceves mostly in relief, Boston wants to try him in the rotation, and it’s easy to see why–Aceves has a broad repertoire of solid pitches, the best of which is his changeup. If his health holds up, there’s no question he provides more value starting than relieving.
Of course, the main question with Aceves is how he’ll hold up, since he missed most of 2010 with a back injury and has yet to assume a full starter’s workload in the majors. He would still be with the Yankees if that weren’t true, and he’d sure be given more than the maximum of $650K in his new contract.
But there are simply too many pluses here to be ignored. The one season Aceves spent in the majors, he was worth roughly $6 million, according to Fangraphs. That’s nearly 10x the value of this contract, and that season came in relief. Even if he’s not right this year, Aceves will still be under team control for awhile, since he has yet to finish his arbitration years. The Red Sox would likely be able to retain him at a very low price for 2012 if he doesn’t come back well this year, and Aceves is said to be ahead of schedule in his rehab. He’s still in his prime years, so there’s no reason to think that Aceves wouldn’t return to effectiveness if he regains his health.
It’s certainly a nice low-risk, high-reward addition for Boston.