The Cincinnati Reds System

Continuing my look at every minor league system in baseball, it’s time to look at one of the more hyped collections of talent in the game–the farm system of the Cincinnati Reds. It features the hardest thrower in baseball history and a few other top prospects, but what else is there? Let’s find out.

System Overview:

The Reds have one of the top collections of hitting talent in the minors. Featuring catcher Devin Mesoraco, shortstop Billy Hamilton, and outfielders Yorman Rodriguez and Dave Sappelt, there’s lots of impact talent here. Ronald Torreyes is also an exciting prospect.

Heck, the Reds even have a legitimate first base prospect in Yonder Alonso. This team really has no positions of weakness on the offensive side, at least if you get a bit creative and call Torreyes a third baseman, which I did.

The pitching is a different story. The Reds are the only team I can remember than had all of their promising starting pitchers at such low levels. Aroldis Chapman is listed as a reliever here, for obvious reasons, and Donnie Joseph gives the team a second high-impact lefty, so the future bullpen should be beyond reproach with those two.

But the starters? There’s plenty of upside to be had, but that’s as much because none of them have even played full-season ball as it is due to their potential. There’s some real intrigue in the bunch, but none of the five are the least bit proven.

I think the position players and relievers are extremely easy choices here; the only thing one could likely debate is my choice in starting pitchers, since I eschewed all of the experienced candidates. But who’s really left? I suppose one could call Brad Boxberger a starter, but he was both a reliever and awful in Double-A. The only other experienced starter who made John Sickels’ Reds top 20 was Sam LeCure, a Triple-A mediocrity, at #20 with a C grade–there’s something to be said for low downside, but I’ll take the potential of Mitchell Clarke and Wes Mugarian over LeCure right now.

Catcher: Devin Mesoraco. Mesoraco went from a bust at the start of 2010 to my #17 prospect at the end of the season:

"A high 2007 first-rounder, Mesoraco was pretty much written off by the beginning of the 2010 season, as he had just hit .228/.311/.381 in High-A, and had never slugged above .400 or posted a .312+ OBP in his three-year career. What a difference a year makes, I suppose. Mesoraco improved his conditioning and got in better shape, and voila, he suddenly looked like the tools-laden stud he was supposed to be, showing good catcher defense and bashing his way through three levels much like [Brandon] Belt. Mesoraco gets the slight edge over Belt here because he plays a tougher position."

Upside: 9.5, Downside: 6.6

First base: Yonder Alonso. Alonso may be a bit overrated in some prospect circles due to his high draft status, but don’t write him off for his meager 2010 numbers: he hit .335/.416/.561 in Triple-A after the All-Star Break, which coincided with him getting over a hamate injury. Alonso was overmatched in his big league debut (6-for-29, no walks, no homers, 10 K), and he’ll be 24 a week into the season, but he should develop into an Adam LaRoche-esque average MLB starter. The question is how he’ll find playing time with reigning MVP Joey Votto already entrenched in Cincinnati.

Upside: 8.4, Downside: 6.7

Second base: Henry Rodriguez. Don’t let Rodriguez’s relatively small stature fool you; he packs a punch in his bat, ripping 37 doubles and 14 homers in Low-A last year as a 20-year-old. He also brings excellent speed to the table, swiping 33 bags, and he’s a fundamentally sound and rangy second baseman. Rodriguez only walked 22 times in 118 games, so he’ll need to fix that to have a better career than, say, Howie Kendrick, but it’s hard to dislike a guy with this many fully-developed skills at this age.

Upside: 8.6, Downside: 3.8

Shortstop: Billy Hamilton. Like Alonso, Hamilton shook off a slow start to put up solid numbers, hitting .318/.383/.456 in Rookie ball at age 19. A spectacular baserunner (48 steals in 69 games), Hamilton’s K/BB improved each month, lending hope to him having a future as a leadoff man. His speed compensates for his current lack of power, as he beat out ten triples while hitting only two homers. The 57th pick in 2009 is one of the fastest risers heading into 2011, and he’ll look to explode onto the scene in his first year of full-season ball.

Upside: 9.1, Downside: 3.2

Third base: Ronald Torreyes. Torreyes snuck onto the back of the Top 100 at #97, less because he belonged there and more because I wanted to highlight him:

"We go right back to the low-minors nobodies with Torreyes, who actually opened the season in the Venezuelan Summer League, arguably the lowest level of affiliated ball.He tore that circuit apart (.390/.468/.606) and did the same with the AZL (.349/.379/.494) before getting a six-game late-season cameo in Low-A that began the day before his 18th birthday.We’re dealing with a similar package here as we were with [Cardinals catcher and #99 prospect Juan] Castillo: Torreyes has a high-average bat and rarely strikes out, adding some gap power as well.Torreyes has played all over the infield but settled in as a plus defensive second baseman when he came to US ball. He offers speed on the bases but was caught 17 of 42 times, so he needs to polish that up. Set to start 2011 in Low-A at age 18, Torreyes could really burst into the mainstream prospect scene."

Upside: 9.0, Downside: 2.2

Outfielder #1: Yorman Rodriguez. Rodriguez ranked 23rd on my Top 100:

"Long a coveted young prospect, Rodriguez cut his strikeout rate nearly in half in 2010 (imagine where [Oswaldo] Arcia would be if he could do that!), and his batting average rose 120 points, which certainly isn’t a coincidence. A .339 average is a good place to start, talent-wise, and Rodriguez adds top-flight speed and defense to the equation. He’s not a huge power threat yet, but the homers should start creeping up every season. Rodriguez still just turned 18, so he’s very, very far from the majors, but like Arcia, he’s got the raw ability to be a perennial All-Star someday."

Upside: 9.7, Downside: 2.8

Outfielder #2: Dave Sappelt. Like Rodriguez, Sappelt is undersized, but he’s got some pop; he put up 53 extra-base hits across three levels in 2010, hitting a crazy .342/.395/.507. Going 25-for-43 on the bases wasn’t ideal, but Sappelt offers a complete offensive package and is a capable outfielder. The 24-year-old gets talked about little, but could settle in as a solid starter as early as this July.

Upside: 8.7, Downside: 6.0

Outfielder #3: Danny Dorn. Dorn is 26, but he’s also basically ready for the majors after hitting .302/.398/.545 last season in Triple-A. Not particularly athletic, he’s really just a power bat from the left side, but he has a solid approach and could be a good platoon bat or pinch-hitter starting in 2011.

Upside: 7.6, Downside: 6.4

Starting Pitcher #1: Kyle Lotzkar. Lotzkar has dealt with a litany of injuries in his career, and the 21-year-old has yet to throw 50 innings in any of his three pro seasons. Still, he’s dominated when healthy, striking out 60 and walking just 14 in 44 1/3 innings across the two Rookie ball levels. He’s got two excellent offspeed pitches, good command, and solid velocity. The big question is if he can refine his terrible mechanics and stay off the DL; if he can do that while retaining his stuff, Lotzkar could be an extremely effective pitcher.

Upside: 9.4, Downside: 2.5

Starting Pitcher #2: Ismael Guillon. At age 18, Guillon had a fantastic first year in the minors, with a 73/23 K/BB in 57 innings, allowing just one homer and 39 hits. It was just the AZL, but Guillon also showed good stuff for a lefty, with an 88-94 mph fastball and plus changeup. He’ll need to work on his curveball and command, not to mention clean up some mechanical flaws of his own, but Guillon is a big sleeper for 2011.

Upside: 8.9, Downside: 2.6

Starting Pitcher #3: Jonathan Correa. Correa was also a teenager in 2010, splitting his time between the two Rookie ball levels. He’s got one of the best sliders among teenage arms, and also throws in the low 90’s. He’l need a changeup, but Correa whiffed 83 and walked 19 in 66 1/3 innings across the two levels. Like the other pitchers here, he’s light years from the majors, but some have already compared him to Johnny Cueto.

Upside: 8.7, Downside: 2.7

Starting Pitcher #4: Wes Mugarian. Mugarian was the Reds’ fifth-rounder in 2010, and he promptly struck out over a batter per inning in the AZL straight out of high school. A projectable righty, Mugarian already throws 90-93 mph, and while he doesn’t have a knockout offspeed offering yet, his slider, curve, and changeup are all usable pitches. He has an intriguing combination of strikeout and groundball ability, and could be a mid-rotation starter.

Upside: 8.1, Downside: 2.3

Starting Pitcher #5: Mitchell Clarke. Clarke was the Reds’ 19th-rounder in 2009, and while he was a 19-year-old in Rookie ball, it’s tough to not get your eyes opened by his numbers: 41 K, 8 BB, 0 HR in 39 IP. A polished lefty with groundball ability, he throws in the upper 80’s and keeps the ball down, getting a healthy 58% groundball rate last year. While he likely doesn’t have huge upside, Clarke could eat innings and get grounders–heck, his skillset’s pretty similar to that of Jaime Garcia.

Upside: 7.6, Downside: 2.4

Relief Pitcher #1: Aroldis Chapman. Chapman ranked #26 on my Top 100:

"What am I supposed to do with Chapman? The guy threw a baseball105 miles per hour in a big league game, and it’s not even his best pitch. That’s obviously great, but there are some caveats here:1.)    Chapman’s minor league numbers, especially as a starter, weren’t that great, and he walked far too many.2.)    There’s a lot of injury concern here, mainly because seemingly everyone who throws this hard blows out his arm (see Zumaya, Joel and Strasburg, Stephen).3.)    Is Chapman going to become a reliever a la Joba Chamberlain/Neftali Feliz? If so, his value takes a huge hit."

Upside: 9.8, Downside: 7.4

Relief Pitcher #2: Donnie Joseph. Joseph, unlike Chapman, is definitely a reliever, but he’s a damn good one who would be the #1 relief prospect in most MLB organizations. 103 strikeouts in 65 innings tends to do that, and Joseph is a hard-throwing lefty, to boot. When his fastball/slider combination isn’t making hitters look silly, they’re usually inducing ground balls. Joseph could definitely become a lefty closer; perhaps he won’t throw as hard as Matt Thornton, but his slider is better than Thornton’s and he has similar upside.

Upside: 9.1, Downside: 5.8