Continuing my look at notable NRIs from around the league, it’s time to take a look at some aspiring Red Sox.
RHP Jason Bergmann—The longtime Nationals curveballer isn’t much more than a generic relief arm, featuring a low-90’s fastball and low-80’s curveball. Still, while Bergmann’s career 5.04 ERA and 0.3 WAR in six seasons paints him as little more than a trash-time pitcher, it’s hard to ignore his excellent Triple-A results from last year–a 56/19 K/BB in 50 2/3 innings. Perhaps finally getting off the 40-man roster lit a fire under the righty; we’ll see how he fares against big league hitters in camp.
RHP Brandon Duckworth—Just like the Orioles have Ryan Drese, the Red Sox have their own long-forgotten former righty starter. Now 35, Duckworth put up a good season with the Phillies Triple-A affiliate last year–a 102/45 K/BB with just five homers allowed in 105 2/3 innings.
The former Phillies, Astros, and Royals hurler last saw the majors in 2008 with the Royals and failed to impress, whiffing just one more hitter than he walked. The four-pitch righty lacks an obvious plus offering, so he’s unlikely to thrive with a move to relief; he seems destined to slot into the Pawtucket rotation.
LHP Rich Hill—The erstwhile curveballer continues to try to throw strikes, but we’re now four years removed from Hill’s last stretch of real effectiveness. A move to relief in Triple-A last year at least pushed Hill’s K/BB back toward 2, and got him striking out over a batter per inning, and he even didn’t embarrass himself in a brief Boston cameo.
At 31, Hill’s still got that big curveball, and if he ever gets his odd delivery back in 2006-07 form, look out. Don’t expect too much from him, though, since it’s been so long since he showed any consistency.
C Ryan Lavarnway—An underrated catching prospect, Lavarnway isn’t going to be breaking camp, but after hitting .285/.395/.494 in Double-A last year, the 23-year-old is very much in line for a September callup if he impresses at Triple-A this year.
While Lavarnway boasts an excellent overall approach at the plate, he does need to work on cutting down his high strikeout totals, and, more importantly, fixing up his receiving behind the plate. Some have questioned if he’ll stick at catcher, and while he has the bat to carry first base a la Mike Napoli, he wouldn’t be exceptional there.
OF Che-Hsuan Lin—Another prospect, the 22-year-old Lin already has a .275/.386/.343 Double-A line under his belt. Like Lavarnway, he’s an interesting prospect with zero chance of immediately making the Red Sox.
Lin likely will be in Triple-A to open the season working on adding some doubles power to go with his excellent contact and plate discipline (63/72 K/BB last year). He could also use some refinement on the bases after getting caught twelve times in 38 attempts last season. He’s another solid but underrated prospect who Sox fans should be excited to see this spring.
INF Hector Luna—It’s hard to believe Luna was once a light-hitting utilityman for the Cardinals and Indians, as he’s really stepped up his power game of late. He hit .294/.367/.477 in Triple-A last year, and has hit 33 homers in 188 AAA games from 2009-10. He was just 4-for-30 in a pinch-hitting role with Florida, but that’s not much of a sample.
Luna no longer patrols the middle infield like he did in his younger and more svelte days, but he’s a plus defensive third baseman with good hands. Some team should give him a look as a platoon guy, although Boston isn’t likely to be that team. It’ll still be interesting to see if Luna can mash enough in the spring to garner some trade interest.
LHP Andrew Miller—The former top prospect has fallen on hard times, like posting a 66/61 K/BB in 85 1/3 innings last year…in Double-A. Still just 25, he’s never developed a third pitch, and Miller’s formerly impressive fastball/slider combination is now just average. Add in his ever-unimpressive command to the mix, and you don’t have a major league pitcher, which explains why the Red Sox could acquire him for the low price of marginal control-challenged lefty specialist Dustin Richardson.
Then again, talent is talent, and he’s just 25, so you never know. The Red Sox certainly have their work cut out for them with this reclamation project, however.
RHP Tony Pena—This is the former shortstop, not the power righty who came up with Arizona. Pena spent his first full year as a pitcher in 2010, and he actually came through with some pretty solid Double-A results for the Giants. Triple-A brought more of a mixed bag (21/14 K/BB in 30 innings), but given Pena’s nascence at the craft, he’s worth stashing in Triple-A to see if he can make this work. Pena will be 30 when the season starts, however, so the time is nigh.
LHP Dennys Reyes—The big lefty actually posted the highest average fastball velocity of his career in 2010 (90.2 mph), so his arm strength is still clearly there even at age 34. He’s managed to be an above-replacement level pitcher all but one year since 1997, so it’s a good bet he’ll still be able to find ways to get lefties out in 2011. He’s got a much better shot than most NRIs.
RHP Clevelan Santeliz—Long an overhyped prospect in the White Sox system, Santeliz finally saw his ERA regress in Triple-A last year. A hard thrower, he’s struggled with his command and consistency, usually walking over 5 1/2 batters per nine innings.
Santeliz is the sort of pitcher who could bounce around for another half-decade before figuring out how to pitch and having a Santiago Casilla 2010-style run. We’ll see if the Red Sox can get him to throw more strikes.
2B Nate Spears—Nobody ever seems to mention Spears, but plus defensive second basemen with on-base ability don’t grow on trees. Spears hit .272/.380/.463 in Double-A last year, but he was 25 years old, so people usually discount his performance. Still, though, he posted a 93/84 K/BB, hit 20 homers, and went 13-for-14 on the bases while playing a good second–that’s a lot of positives, and Spears is a nice sleeper.
At his age, however, Spears does need to get going, and fast. 2009 saw him post a .253/.319/.345 line with the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate, and he can’t afford a bad showing there again. Getting off to a strong start in the spring would go a long way toward putting him on Boston’s radar.
RHP Kyle Weiland—A solid if unspectacular pitching prospect, Weiland is coming off a solid age-23 season in Double-A, which saw him post a 120/49 K/BB in 128 1/3 innings. He doesn’t have the sort of stuff, nor the precise command, that would allow him to project as a front or even middle-of-the-rotation starter, but Boston fans very likely will be seeing more from him, either as a back-end guy or solid reliever. I’ve got a hunch that his slightly-above-average stuff could get a big boost with a move to relief.
In any case, Weiland is already 24, so he’s the sort of guy who can’t afford too many missteps, especially in a competitive organization like this that can’t afford to be throwing innings at question marks.
RHP Alex Wilson—Wilson didn’t have Weiland’s success at Double-A last year–a 6.66 ERA, 5.64 FIP, and 56/34 K/BB in 78 1/3 innings, but he’s still an interesting prospect, since he actually has a better (on paper) fastball/slider combination. Still, Wilson, even more so than Weiland, will need to impress the coaches in spring training, since he’s already 24 and has yet to figure out how to retire upper-minors hitters with any regularity. Scouts have also talked about him as a reliever for a long time, so one has to wonder if the Sox will opt to take a preliminary look at him in that role in March.