Yesterday, I had my first two fantasy baseball drafts of 2011. I didn’t go in with too much of a concrete plan–I’m not that hardcore about fantasy, I guess–but I quickly realized that the traditionally-thin areas of catcher and middle infield were still quite thin this year.
But what really stood out was how few third basemen looked even remotely good. After the #106 player overall, Milwaukee’s Casey McGehee, there was basically nobody who I wanted on my fantasy team.
But how bad is the current crop of third basemen in MLB? Let’s take a look.
Here are the triple-slash lines for each position in baseball last year:
Catcher: .249/.319/.381
First base: .264/.350/.452
Second base: .265/.330/.389
Third base: .263/.324/.418
Shortstop: .262/.319/.374
Left field: .270/.337/.432
Center field: .261/.326/.405
Right field: .270/.342/.442
Designated hitter: .250/.330/.422
Pitcher: .141/.175/.174
So, third base clearly falls in the middle on the power spectrum, which should be expected. But third basemen don’t seem to hit for much average, and their OBP collectively was worse than second basemen and center fielders, two positions usually thought of as lower-offense.
Of course, the other factor here is that third base is a very top-heavy position. Jose Bautista‘s great, and Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman are exceptional as well. Adrian Beltre offered a better combination of offense and defense than any of them in 2010. And the New York teams have some solid players manning the hot corner as well, lest we forget.
But after that? Three other players jump out as quality: Casey McGehee, Martin Prado (if you call Prado a 3B), and Scott Rolen. Rolen’s always got injury questions, Prado’s power is middling, and McGehee isn’t spectacular in any area, but they’re all good players.
But that’s pretty much it. Nine good third basemen. Nobody else posted a wOBA above .335 last year, which is shocking for a corner position. By comparison, seventeen first basemen (including the indomitable Lyle Overbay) and 28 corner outfielders pulled it off.
Seriously, what other third basemen qualify as “good?” Michael Young is okay, but doesn’t have too much power or defensive ability. Mark Reynolds strikes out too much, Placido Polanco has little power, Aramis Ramirez doesn’t get on base, Casey Blake doesn’t do anything particularly well, Chase Headley defends but doesn’t hit much, Pablo Sandoval has a poor approach, Brandon Inge combines lots of strikeouts with middling power, and every other third baseman posted a sub-.320 OBP and sub-.400 SLG in 2010.
If we look at players who didn’t play the whole season, some other guys jump out. Wilson Betemit put together a nice late-season run, but his defense is terrible. Dayan Viciedo hit well down the stretch too, but his K/BB was sub-Francoeurian, and nobody thinks he’ll even be able to stay at third. I like Brooks Conrad, but nobody else seems to. Chris Johnson and Danny Valencia hit well but, like Viciedo, drastically need an approach overhaul.
Pedro Alvarez is probably the most hyped of the bunch, but scouts still don’t like his defense at third, and striking out 34.3% of the time isn’t a good way to get started offensively.
Then there are veterans like Miguel Cairo and Melvin Mora of whom nobody expects a repeat of 2010. David Freese, Edwin Encarnacion, and Ian Stewart barely edged over the .335 wOBA mark in 2010, so perhaps they can settle in as solid-average third basemen, although all three need to prove they can do it again.
Certainly, it’s a thin group overall, which is odd, since in 2009, 15 third basemen posted wOBAs over .335. Fourteen did so in 2008, fifteen in 2007, and sixteen in 2006.
So, 2010 was certainly the first year in a long time that well below half of MLB’s starting third basemen established themselves as quality MLB starters. It’ll be interesting to see how long that lasts; will Alvarez, Mike Moustakas, Miguel Sano, Brett Lawrie, Matt Carpenter, and others pull the position back up to its previous heights, or will it continue to see an offensive downturn?
It’ll be an interesting trend to watch. In the meantime, draft your third baseman early, fantasy players!