The Pirates are one of the teams that needs a strong farm system the most. Not only are they looking to reverse the stigma of having the most consecutive sub-.500 seasons, they also are on a fairly small budget and need talented cost-controlled players in order to compete.
Does Pittsburgh’s current farm system hold that sort of excellent potential? Let’s break it down.
System Overview:
I’m not at all impressed by the position players here. Tony Sanchez is a nice prospect, but nobody else looks particularly interesting, and every other position player has major flaws that need to be addressed before projecting as a regular.
Most often cited as the second-best position prospect in the system is outfielder Starling Marte, whom I have yet to be impressed with. Marte walks too infrequently; conversely, other “top” outfield prospect Evan Chambers walks so much that he strikes out too much. The infield prospects don’t really look very interesting either.
The good news for Pirates fans, though, is that they have excellent pitching prospects. They’re led, of course, by 2010 #2 overall pick Jameson Taillon. I’m a big believer in Rudy Owens (who seems to be a fairly divisive prospect) and Bryan Morris, and Luis Heredia is an intriguing potential ace. Stetson Allie’s got great upside too.
This system could wind up producing a good catcher and a frontline rotation and bullpen. For what it’s worth, pitching alone brought the Mariners over .500 in 2009, and the A’s to .500 in 2010, so perhaps if the pitching comes around, Pittsburgh can at least break their streak of futility. Expected to select an offensive player with the #1 overall pick this year, Pittsburgh could go a long way toward boosting their system there as well.
As for my selections, the hitting’s pretty easy to defend, since there are few established top prospects in the system. John Sickels only graded three Pirates hitters better than a C (Sanchez, Marte, and Brock Holt). My outfield ordering is unorthodox, but what can I say: I’m not a fan of players who never walk.
The pitching is a bit trickier, since there are so many high-upside arms. I decided to list Allie as a reliever, since most think he’ll end up in the bullpen. Deciding what to do with the completely unproven Heredia was difficult as well, but I don’t think my selections were too out-of-left-field.
Catcher: Tony Sanchez. The sole Pirates hitter to rank on my Top 100 Prospects, Sanchez was #86:
"Sanchez missed the last half of 2010 after being hit in the face with a pitch, but spent the first half carving up a pitcher’s league, hitting .316/.416/.454, impressive from a 22-year-old catcher. His defensive stock seems to have dropped somewhat since he was drafted, and he didn’t show as much power in 2010 as he did in 2009, although playing in the FSL may explain that. The fourth overall pick in 2009 was widely considered an overdraft at the time, but a year and a half in, he’s looking to be a very solid big league catcher."
Upside: 9.0, Downside: 5.6
First base: Matt Curry. Most teams don’t have any good first base prospects, but this 2010 16th-rounder is doing his best to become one for Pittsburgh. He hit .299/.421/.477 in short-season ball in his first pro season, showing excellent strike-zone control (47/39 K/BB in 58 games). He’ll need to learn how to tap into his raw power a bit better to make it as a first baseman, but Curry does defend the position solidly and is a very polished hitter. At 22, he’ll need to make a big splash in his full-season debut in 2011.
Upside: 7.5, Downside: 2.6
Second base: Josh Harrison. Harrison is something of an underrated prospect; middle infielders who hit .300 in Double-A don’t grow on trees, after all. The contact hitter hit .300/.345/.398 in the regular season and .330/.398/.516 in fall ball. Harrison’s a small player without home run power, but he manages to hit enough doubles to keep pitchers honest. He could stand to add more walks, and he can’t play shortstop, so Harrison is likely to wind up as a marginal second base starter or solid utilityman.
Upside: 7.9, Downside: 5.7
Shortstop: Brock Holt. Holt got off to a great start in High-A, hitting .351/.410/.438 in 47 games, and then got hurt and missed the rest of the season. Still, he ranks as one of the system’s top offensive prospects. Holt isn’t going to keep hitting .350–he doesn’t have that level of contact ability, striking out 30 times in those 47 games–but he does have a solid approach at the plate. Still, he doesn’t have much power or speed, and he made 20 errors in those 47 games, so he’s not a good defensive shortstop. Utility work is likely in his future.
Upside: 7.7, Downside: 4.6
Third base: Jeremy Farrell. Farrell turned in a solid season in High-A, hitting .298/.369/.487. He was 23, though, so that was pretty much the minimum standard for him to be taken seriously as a prospect. He had an enormous platoon split (.417/.470/.750 vs. lefties, .265/.342/.414 vs. righties). Farrell is reasonably athletic, but he’s erratic at third base. If his platoon split is for real, perhaps he can have a Wes Helms sort of career.
Upside: 7.2, Downside: 4.1
Outfielder #1: Evan Chambers. The Pirates’ third-round selection in 2009, Chambers had a strong full-season debut, hitting .239/.384/.386 in Low-A as a 21-year-old. Still, there are some problems. While his 92 walks are a huge positive, Chambers gets them by taking a ton of pitches, and aggressive pitchers can easily put him into bad counts and even strike him out looking. With only average power, Chambers will likely run into more and more issues unless he finds a way to keep upper-level pitchers more honest. He stole 35 bases, but Chambers is fairly stocky already and doesn’t project as a huge speed threat in the majors–he was caught 17 times last year anyway. There’s a lot to like here, but Chambers is the sort of guy who needs to prove himself in Double-A before we can anoint him a future starter.
Upside: 8.4, Downside: 3.8
Outfielder #2: Alex Presley. Speaking of hitting in Double-A, Presley did a fair amount of it in 2010, putting up a .350/.399/.533 line. The 25-year-old held up okay in Triple-A after a promotion (.294/.349/.460) before going 6-for-23 with the Pirates. A solid all-around player with good instincts, doubles power, solid defense, and decent contact and discipline, Presley looks like an ideal fourth outfielder, a role he could permanently assume very soon.
Upside: 7.4, Downside: 6.3
Outfielder #3: Starling Marte. Marte turned lots of heads by hitting .315/.386/.432 in High-A, although his OBP usually gets propped up by large amounts of HBPs–he had more (15) than walks (12). Marte struck out 59 times in 60 games as well, so he’s unlikely to sustain the .315 average. With no homers in 60 games, it’s only going to get tougher for him if he can’t figure out the strike zone. The 22-year-old does have good speed and defense, but until the K/BB improves or he shows some pop, he’s not the sort of prospect I’ll be endorsing.
Upside: 8.1, Downside: 3.1
Starting Pitcher #1: Jameson Taillon. Taillon ranked #12 on my Top 100 Prospects, even though he has yet to pitch in pro ball:
"Like [Mike] Moustakas, Taillon’s another #2 overall pick—it’s just that he’s from this season. The huge high school righty has yet to make his pro debut, but he’s got a bigtime fastball and two stellar breaking pitches. Were it not for mega-prospect Bryce Harper, Taillon could have easily been the first overall pick thanks to his true ace-level ceiling."
Upside: 9.9, Downside: 2.1
Starting Pitcher #2: Bryan Morris. Morris ranked 74th:
"Like [Rangers outfielder and #79 prospect Engel] Beltre, Morris bore the “bust” stigma entering 2010, but also shook it with strong performance. Unlike Beltre, however, Morris kept excelling once moved from High-A (where he put up a 0.60 ERA and 40/7 K/BB in 44 innings) to Double-A. At 23, it was certainly time for the oft-injured former top prospect to turn in a performance like this. He still throws a crisp 91-94 mph fastball and a hammer curveball, and his command has come a long way since his 43/46 K/BB debacle of 2009. If Jameson Taillon can wind up the Pirates ace, maybe Morris can be his sidekick."
Upside: 8.8, Downside: 5.8
Starting Pitcher #3: Rudy Owens. Owens edged on to the Top 100 at #93:
"Owens is [Giants lefty and #94 prospect Eric] Surkamp 2.0 to an extent, another finesse lefty who’s excelled in the minors. Owens doesn’t throw as good of a fastball or curve as Surkamp, but his changeup is lights-out, and Owens spent all of 2010 in Double-A despite being five months younger than Surkamp, giving him the edge.The lefty walked just 23 batters in 150 innings while whiffing 132 and posting a 2.46 ERA. Dallas Braden may represent Owens’ downside, and I don’t mean that as a slight to Braden."
Upside: 8.5, Downside: 5.8
Starting Pitcher #4: Luis Heredia. A huge 16-year-old righty, Heredia received the fifth-highest signing bonus ever for an international prospect. A physically imposing pitcher, he already throws in the low 90’s with good command of his fastball. His offspeed pitches need work, and he obviously is light years from Pittsburgh, but scouts believe he has front-of-the-rotation potential. He could be right on Taillon’s level with a good debut.
Upside: 9.5, Downside: 1.2
Starting Pitcher #5: Jeff Locke. Locke is a poor man’s version of Owens; while he throws a bit harder, his offspeed stuff isn’t quite at Owens’ level. Still, he had no trouble in either High-A or Double-A last year, posting 83/14 and 56/12 K/BB ratios in 86 1/3 and 57 2/3 innings. Like Owens, he probably doesn’t have the raw stuff to become an ace (although it’s possible, as Mark Buehrle has shown), but Locke could turn into a dependable mid-rotation starter.
Upside: 8.5, Downside: 5.1
Relief Pitcher #1: Stetson Allie. A huge flamethrower, Allie may or may not be given a chance to start; given all the rotation options listed above, he’s more likely to wind up in relief in the long run, where the Pirates are a bit thinner. Even as a starter, Allie sits at 94 mph, and he could near triple digits in relief. He’s also got a solid slider, but has yet to come up with a third pitch. He was a high school draftee, but will open the 2011 season at age 20 already, possibly in Low-A. If the command is there and he picks up a changeup, he could be a dominant starter; if he throws strikes at all, he could be a great reliever.
Upside: 9.5, Downside: 2.0
Relief Pitcher #2: Diego Moreno. A fairly prototypical short pitcher with a big arm, Moreno’s fastball/slider combination is above-average, but it’s his command that sets him apart, as he walked just eight batters in 46 innings last year between High-A and Double-A, including a 57/5 K/BB in 38 1/3 High-A innings. Already 24, he’ll need to move fairly quickly, but could evolve into a dependable setup man. He could contribute as soon as the second half of 2011.
Upside: 8.6, Downside: 4.7