The Astros are in a bad place right now; neither their current talent nor their farm system is considered to be in good shape. Many cite the team even below the Pirates in terms of the current state of the organization.
Is that just bluster, or is this system really that bad?
System Overview:
There’s not too much hitting here, but I’ve certainly seen worse (my last system review, the Pirates, for example). The primary emphasis is on offense-oriented players, but there are also some solid defenders in the mix in the middle infield. No position player projects as a star, but third base is the only position that’s in truly bad shape.
The pitching is, of course, led by uber-prospect Jordan Lyles, who made headlines by reaching Triple-A well before his 20th birthday last year. Beyond him, there are some interesting arms, although I’d rate the overall quality of the pitching here to be a bit below-average. There’s also a paucity of impact relievers, not that Houston needs to worry about such things until they’ve got a contender.
Best-case scenario: all the position players develop into solid-average regulars, Lyles becomes an ace, and the team wins…86 games, down the line? Yeah, more talent needs to come in, but this system isn’t completely hopeless.
Catcher: Ben Heath. Houston’s fifth-round selection in this past draft, Heath had a solid pro debut, reaching Double-A and hitting .276/.387/.495. Like most highly-drafted catchers, his bat is ahead of his glove; while Heath is a decent receiver, he doesn’t have much of an arm, and he gunned down only 24% of runners against him. Still, he’s just 22 and got better offensively with each promotion. If Jason Castro can’t develop into a good regular, Heath could be on his tail soon.
Upside: 8.1, Downside: 3.3
First base: Koby Clemens. Yep, Roger’s son’s still here, and he’s honestly one of the better first base prospects in the game, not that that says a whole lot. Clemens bashed 26 homers in Double-A last season at age 23, hitting .241/.350/.476. He does strike out a lot, but he’ll walk at a solid clip too. After trying third base and catcher, Clemens settled in as an athletic first baseman in 2010. If Brett Wallace doesn’t show much for the Astros by the All-Star Break, and Clemens keeps hitting in Triple-A, it’ll be time for the 24-year-old to get a look.
Upside: 8.3, Downside: 5.2
Second base: Jose Altuve. Always interesting due to his lack of height (he’s 5’5″), Altuve continues to prove people wrong. At this point, it’s clear his bat packs some punch; this isn’t Chris Cates we’re talking about. Altuve’s short stature gives him an extremely small strike zone, so he walks more easily and has less ground to cover than just about anybody in baseball. He generates surprising pop–15 homers at age 20 last year–and has plus speed, going 42-for-60 in steals. As one might expect, his slugging received a boost from the hitter’s haven of a High-A home park in Lancaster, but he also hit well in Low-A. Altuve could start 2011 in Double-A at age 20; if he keeps hitting there, he could shoot up prospect lists, as his speed and defense play already.
Upside: 8.4, Downside: 4.1
Shortstop: Jonathan Villar. Villar was just 19 last year, but was pushed aggressively; the Phillies started him in Low-A and the Astros pushed him to High-A after trading for him. He handled Low-A surprisingly well for a supposedly glove-first player, with a .272/.332/.358 line, but even with Lancaster’s park, he wasn’t ready for High-A, hitting just .225/.294/.372. Even faster than Altuve, Villar went 45-for-60 in steals. While he’s extremely athletic, Villar is erratic on defense, making a ridiculous 56 errors and fielding just .913. At another position, the hitting standards would be raised, and since Villar doesn’t project to hit better than about .265/.320/.350, he really needs to stick at short. Cleaning up his strikeouts (an incredible 153 in 2010) is also a must.
Upside: 8.2, Downside: 2.7
Third base: Tyler Burnett. Burnett is the best of a thin 3B crop here. The Astros’ 17th-round selection last year, he hit .250/.363/.392 in short-season ball after signing. Burnett brings doubles power and a good approach (56/45 K/BB) to the plate, and he’s a reasonably athletic third baseman who should be able to stick at the hot corner. His bat would play a lot better in the middle infield, but he probably doesn’t have the defensive chops for that, and the Astros have more interesting prospects at second and short, anyway.
Upside: 6.5, Downside: 2.3
Outfielder #1: J.D. Martinez. Martinez ranked #78 on my Top 100 Prospects:
"A late-round 2009 draftee, Martinez ripped the ball apart in short-season ball that year and continued his torrid pace in Low-A this season, batting .362/.433/.598. He possesses a good amount of each hitting tool, with 20-30 homer potential along with good contact skills and solid plate discipline.Skipping over High-A didn’t faze Martinez, who proceeded to hit .302/.357/.407 in Double-A down the stretch, losing a bit of power but still showing the plus contact and discipline. He isn’t a plus defender in the outfield thanks to knee problems that have bugged him for years, but he’s got enough range to be a solid defender in Houston’s small left field once Carlos Lee leaves."
Upside: 8.7, Downside: 5.7
Outfielder #2: Austin Wates. Houston’s third-round selection in 2010 (man, there are a lot of ’10 draftees on here, eh?), Wates hit .316/.447/.500 in a brief short-season cameo, also swiping nine bases in just twelve games. The Virginia Tech alum is a huge sleeper; he’s got fantastic all-around offensive potential, and his speed and center field defense are also solid. He could shoot up prospect lists with a good full-season debut.
Upside: 8.8, Downside: 2.7
Outfielder #3: Delino DeShields Jr. Considered a reach as the eighth overall pick in 2010, DeShields hit .319/.356/.433 in the Appalachian League, although it was only sixteen games. A top-of-the-line runner, he’s got work to do on his approach at the plate, and the former second baseman is trying to adjust to playing center field, where his routes and jumps are quite raw. Just 18, he’s a solid long-term prospect, but he’s got enough question marks that we’ll have to wait until he performs well to declare him a top prospect.
Upside: 8.7, Downside: 2.2
Starting Pitcher #1: Jordan Lyles. I’m extremely bullish on Lyles. How bullish? Enough to rank him as the third-best prospect in the game:
"Pitching in Triple-A at age 19 is a remarkable feat. Lyles got there in August and acquitted himself just fine in six starts after tearing up the Texas League. He lacks the big strikeout numbers of the other pitchers here in the top ten, but he’s been on such an accelerated timetable that it’s tough to know what his talent level is relative to everyone around him. Lyles has five or six good pitches in his arsenal already, so once he settles into the majors and figures out what works there, we could see him add some whiffs."
Upside: 9.4, Downside: 7.0
Starting Pitcher #2: Michael Foltynewicz. Yet another 2010 draft pick (19th overall), Foltynewicz is a hard-throwing high schooler. His delivery evokes Trevor Cahill‘s, and like Cahill, Foltynewicz gets good movement on his fastball and has a plus changeup. While he throws harder than Cahill–92-95 mph–Foltynewicz lacks a breaking pitch to go with his fastball/changeup combination. Just 19, he had a solid debut in the Appalachian League, with a 39/15 K/BB in 44 2/3 innings, allowing just three home runs. Foltynewicz will need to come up with a breaking pitch to make an impact in a big league rotation, but he has very solid potential.
Upside: 8.6, Downside: 2.7
Starting Pitcher #3: Aneury Rodriguez. Rodriguez pretty much exemplifies the point of the Rule 5 Draft. A big, strong righty with good stuff and solid command, he’s got a full year of Triple-A under his belt and is ready to go in the Majors at age 23. Tampa Bay has so many more impressive players around, though, that they couldn’t squeeze Rodriguez onto the 40-man, so pitching-starved Houston gladly snatched him up and should give him a rotation gig in 2011. Rodriguez projects as an eminently league-average starter, throwing three solid pitches with solid command and solid groundball ability. Still projectable at 23, he could even develop into a #3 starter.
Upside: 8.0, Downside: 6.3
Starting Pitcher #4: Tanner Bushue. A power arm with a good curveball, Bushue turned in a solid season in 2010, with a 4.11 ERA and 114/48 K/BB in 133 2/3 innings. That was made all the more impressive by the fact that he spent the entire year at Low-A despite turning 19 midway through the year. He’s had some problems keeping the ball in the park, which could get interesting with him opening 2011 at Lancaster’s launching pad, but Bushue has a solid three-pitch mix and could be a mid-rotation starter down the line.
Upside: 8.2, Downside: 3.3
Starting Pitcher #5: Jose Perdomo. Perdomo has yet to get out of Rookie ball, but he performed superbly in the GCL last year, with a 69/20 K/BB in 59 1/3 innings. He had a 1.52 ERA and 2.21 FIP. Perdomo is a groundball-oriented pitcher, but he’s had no trouble getting swings and misses anyway. He’s not big, but the 19-year-old righty throws a heavy low-90’s fastball and a developing slider/changeup combo. He’s a nice sleeper who could make some noise.
Upside: 8.5, Downside: 2.3
Relief Pitcher #1: Mark Melancon. Acquired from the Yankees in the Lance Berkman deal, Melancon’s ready to help the Astros now; between New York and Houston, he struck out 22 batters in 21 1/3 innings last year. Control has never been his strong suit, but the big soon-to-be-26-year-old throws a good fastball and a plus hard curveball. He could be a nice middle reliever/setup man.
Upside: 8.2, Downside: 7.1
Relief Pitcher #2: Daniel Meszaros. Meszaros’ prospect status took a hit when he was handed a 50-game suspension late last season, but he possesses a good low-90’s fastball and knockout curveball. The former 48th round pick put up some silly numbers in the low minors, but had seven mediocre appearances in Triple-A before his suspension. He’s probably going to wind up as a solid seventh-inning guy, but he’s already 25, so he’ll need to get to the bigs soon.
Upside: 8.4, Downside: 6.6