We keep on rolling with the system reviews with a look at the Los Angeles Dodgers farm system.
System Overview:
SO. MANY. OUTFIELDERS.
I’ve got three Dodger outfield prospects in my Top 100 overall, and behind them, there are plenty of other interesting names who you won’t see here, like Kyle Russell, Brian Cavazos-Galvez, Leon Landry, and Nick Akins. The outfield depth is simply ridiculous.
Beyond that, though, this system looks a lot like the last one I went over: San Francisco’s. There are a lot of players who could turn into something, but have something holding them back. Can Dee Gordon hit? Will Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, and Garrett Gould get strikeouts? Will Aaron Miller and Ethan Martin throw strikes? What’s Zach Lee going to look like in pro ball? Can J.T. Wise put up good numbers against pitchers of his own age? Will Blake Dean hit for power? Was Russ Mitchell‘s line an Albuquerque mirage? Can Tony Delmonico catch?
What that adds up to is lots of depth, and the potential for the system to look great a year from now, but all those questions give me plenty of trepidation about calling this an above-average system. It probably isn’t bottom-10 bad, but more in the 13-18 range, off the top of my head. Obviously, that’s quite a bit influenced by my panning of Gordon, who many consider to be the Dodgers’ top prospect. Obviously, he’s a polarizing guy; some put him in their top 50 prospects, while others view him in the 300 range overall. I lean toward the 150-200 range with him, but that’s just me.
The system’s in decent shape, but it could use a few breakouts, particularly on the pitching side of things, where there’s a bunch of talent but not a whole lot in the way of results. But hey, at the worst, the Dodgers are going to get a big wave of outfielders, some of which could be used as trade bait to fill other holes.
Catcher: J.T. Wise. Wise turned 24 last June, but he still spent the entire 2010 season in Low-A, which is a big red flag. Still, we’re talking about a guy who was a fifth-round pick in 2009; he was drafted relatively highly and it was his first pro season. Wise has obviously been much older than his competition, but he’s certainly hit the ball well, with a .309/.363/.505 line last year and a .338/.401/.556 line in Rookie ball in 2009. He’s thrown out 38% of basestealers in his career and is a more polished receiver than most A-ball catchers, although part of that is age. He’s a nice sleeper, but Wise will definitely need to move quickly; he’s a good candidate to skip the Cal League, as it’s not like he really has anything to prove in that high-offense environment.
Upside: 8.3, Downside: 3.9
First base: Blake Dean. Dean’s not too much of a prospect, but he’s the best of a thin crop of 1Bs in this system. The Dodgers’ 8th-rounder in 2010, Dean hit .302/.375/.444 in Rookie ball. That’s not stunning, but what was incredible was a 15/28 K/BB in 59 games. It was just the Pioneer League, and he’s already 22, but Dean clearly has an idea of what he’s doing at the plate. He’ll need to show some pop, however, to have much of a shot at playing first base in the majors.
Upside: 7.1, Downside: 2.5
Second base: Jaime Pedroza. An offense-first second baseman, Pedroza didn’t show the 15-HR power of 2009 last year, but he did hit .280/.378/.401 in his first crack at Double-A. The bad news was that his power output declined (going from 54 extra-base hits to 32), as did his basestealing (just 11-for-19 after a 36-for-50 showing in 2009); however, Pedroza dramatically cut down on his strikeouts (162 to 101) while only losing a few walks (78 to 62). An undersized switch-hitter, he did lots of damage from the right side of the plate (.341/.436/.470) while hanging in okay from the left (.251/.350/.359). He’s now shown contact, speed, and power at various times; the next step is to show all three at once while maintaining his signature plate discipline. Pedroza is also a solid defender at second base, though nothing special; after the outfielders, he probably has the most complete game of all Dodger position player prospects.
Upside: 8.2, Downside: 5.0
Shortstop: Dee Gordon. Gordon’s quite the divisive prospect. On one hand, he’s an uber-athletic speed demon with a cannon arm who could play Gold Glove defense while hitting .300 with 75 steals. However, for all that talent, he just hit a meek .277/.332/.355 in Double-A at age 22. The speed is going to be there, and the defense should be too (he needs refinement there, though); the question is going to be how much Gordon hits. His supporters point to his inexperience (he didn’t take up baseball until late in high school) as evidence that he’s simply going to bloom late, but it’s not like a player can just make up for lost time like that. At just 150 pounds, he’s not going to drive the ball with much consistency, so it’s all going to come down to two things: plate approach and line drive ability. He’s the infield Ichiro if both come around, but the infield Juan Pierre if neither do.
Upside: 9.1, Downside: 5.6
Third base: Russ Mitchell. Mitchell’s 26 already, but he heads up a relatively weak class of third basemen; the Dodgers are pretty thin at the corner positions overall. He hit .315/.363/.535 in Triple-A last year, but Albuquerque is a notorious hitter’s park, and he hit just .272/.330/.440 on the road, in line with his career line of .266/.321/.444. He could be a useful platoon bat (.381/.445/.691 vs. LHP last year), and he’s got a bit of experience at first base, second base, and the outfield corners. Mitchell could have use as a righty pinch-hitter and utility corner guy, a la Jeff Baker, but it’s doubtful he’ll ever be much more than that. Going 6-for-42 in the big leagues doesn’t help, although he did bash two homers in 16 at-bats against big league lefties (Jonathan Sanchez and Franklin Morales were the victims).
Upside: 7.4, Downside: 6.2
Outfielder #1: Jerry Sands. Sands ranked as the Dodgers’ #1 prospect in my Top 100 Prospects, as he came in as the 57th overall:
"As a slugger out of a small college, Sands has always been doubted by pretty much everyone, including me, but he kept slugging in Double-A this year (.270/.360/.529), so it’s time to believe in his bat. He’s struggled badly with strikeouts in the past, but he struck out just 62 times in 68 Double-A games this year, and that came after skipping High-A entirely. Sands, 22, also offers good outfield defense and surprising athleticism, as he went 18-for-20 in steals. He’s passed Kyle Russell as the slugging Dodgers prospect to watch."
Upside: 9.2, Downside: 5.3
Outfielder #2: Trayvon Robinson. Robinson followed Sands closely on my list, at #63:
"Another toolsy outfielder, Robinson falls ahead of [Athletics outfielder and #64 prospect Rashun] Dixon and [Twins outfielder and #67 prospect Aaron] Hicks in the ranks because he’s proven himself at Double-A and thus has a shorter distance to the majors (and fewer things that can go wrong). Robinson hit .297/.401/.434 in Double-A last year, losing some of the pop from his Cal League showing in 2009 (.306/.375/.500) but adding some plate discipline. Yet again, whiffs are a problem (28.6%), but Robinson projects to be a better basestealer than Hicks or Dixon, with 37 swipes last year. He could be a valuable all-around contributor."
Upside: 9.1, Downside: 5.5
Outfielder #3: Jonathan Garcia. Garcia also snuck onto my Top 100 at #87:
"At age 18, this talented outfielder was one of the top hitters in the Pioneer League, hitting .305/.365/.527. He’s somewhat similar to [Cubs outfielder and #89 prospect Brett] Jackson, an athletic outfielder with a well-rounded offensive game marred slightly by elevated strikeout numbers, although Garcia’s power is better developed and he isn’t as much of a basestealer and defender. Like most of the lower-level players on the Top 100 list, he’s pushed toward the bottom of the list because he’s so far from the majors, but Garcia could certainly turn into an impact hitter."
Upside: 9.2, Downside: 2.6
Starting Pitcher #1: Rubby De La Rosa. De La Rosa has turned lots of heads with his power arm, as he’s the rare starter who can sit in the mid-90’s. He’ll be 22 on March 4, but already has eight good starts in Double-A under his belt. For all his velocity, he hasn’t gotten too many strikeouts (94 in 110 innings last year) and his secondary stuff doesn’t earn rave reviews, but De La Rosa is definitely a prospect on the rise. He’s a pretty safe bet to contribute in some way, whether it’s as a solid power starter like Johnny Cueto or a shutdown reliever like Neftali Feliz.
Upside: 8.6, Downside: 5.5
Starting Pitcher #2: Garrett Gould. Gould, like De La Rosa, doesn’t have elite strikeout numbers, but he does have elite stuff, with a low-90’s moving fastball and hammer curve. I’m higher on him than most–you won’t often see Gould ahead of the next pitcher on this list–but he’s just 19 and has plenty of time to pick up whiffs. As it was, he’s already throwing strikes, getting grounders, and inducing decent amounts of swings and misses, and Gould got better as the season wore on last year. He’s got high bust potential but a very high ceiling.
Upside: 9.0, Downside: 3.0
Starting Pitcher #3: Zach Lee. Lee has yet to throw a pro pitch after signing at the deadline for a whopping $5.25 million. The 28th overall pick in the 2010 draft, he was slated to play quarterback at LSU before turning pro. He’s got a nice fastball/changeup combination and solid mechanics and command, but his slider needs work, and he obviously needs to prove himself against pro hitters. He’s got fairly high upside if the slider comes around.
Upside: 9.0, Downside: 2.2
Starting Pitcher #4: Matt Magill. Magill is one of the few Dodger SP prospects whose 2010 stats were more impressive than his raw pitching arsenal. At age 20, he dominated Low-A with a 135/52 K/BB in 126 1/3 innings, also allowing just 87 hits. He doesn’t have particularly special stuff, but it’s playable, as he throws in the 90-92 range and has a plus slider and decent changeup. His high floor is a refreshing change from the boom-or-bust pitchers that surround him.
Upside: 8.0, Downside: 4.5
Starting Pitcher #5: Aaron Miller. Miller is one of those boom-or-bust arms, as he’s a lefty with velocity and a wipeout slider, but he also has command issues. He survived the Cal League, but Double-A hitters had little trouble with him, knocking Miller around for a 7.04 ERA in six starts. In 23 innings there, his 22/18 K/BB was subpar. He could be an impact reliever, where he wouldn’t need a changeup and his command problems were less of an issue. For now, he’ll get another chance to start, as the 23-year-old has a special arm for a lefty.
Upside: 8.7, Downside: 3.8
Relief Pitcher #1: Kenley Jansen. There’s little doubt Jansen will succeed in the big leagues, because he already has, with a 41/15 K/BB in 27 1/3 innings last season. That was good for a 0.67 ERA, and while he won’t repeat that, his 94 mph cutting fastball is going to continue confounding hitters. Jansen could benefit from using his plus slider more, and his control isn’t great, but the 23-year-old should be an excellent relief arm for quite some time.
Upside: 9.1, Downside: 7.5
Relief Pitcher #2: Javier Solano. Solano’s a more polished pitcher than Jansen; he only walked 13 batters in all of 2010. However, he’s more of a generic fastball/slider pitcher than Jansen, and thus doesn’t possess the same upside. Still, Solano’s numbers in High-A and Double-A were very impressive, especially since he was just 20 last year. It’s easy to see him becoming an excellent setup man, and he could break into the Dodger bullpen in late 2011.
Upside: 8.5, Downside: 5.2