It’s twenty-eight systems down, two to go. We’ll get to the Padres in the next day or two, but this time around, let’s look at the Colorado Rockies system.
System Overview:
The Rockies are an interesting group. They don’t get too much hype, and the hype that they get seems to get directed at players who don’t seem to be performing all that well.
But there really is a lot here. Not a lot of super-elite talent, other than Wilin Rosario, yet, but a bunch of guys, particularly low-level players, that really have lots of intrigue.
So, even though I find the two prospects often cited as Colorado’s best (Nolan Arenado and Tyler Matzek) to be a bit overrated, I see this as a solid system.
Rosario’s great, Arenado’s all right, Chris Nelson‘s big-league ready, the outfield crop is deep, and there are even a couple of marginally interesting first basemen. Even shortstop isn’t a complete black hole.
On the pitching side, things are also solid, particularly in the depth department. Once you get past the top two pitchers, there are a whole host of guys who could be fourth starters in the bigs, several of whom (Juan Nicasio, Josh Slaats, Edwar Cabrera, Alejandro Barraza, etc.) didn’t make the five-starter cut for this piece.
Overall, that means that some of the players in the system will need to take a step forward to give the Rockies an elite wave of talent, but this system is in solid shape and is a good bet to help the Rockies in a number of areas down the line. The main weakness here is that so much of the talent, particularly pitching-wise, is quite young and far from the bigs, so the Rockies may need to wait for two or three years before many of their prized prospects are ready.
Catcher: Wilin Rosario. Rosario was the #24 prospect on my Top 100, and by far Colorado’s best:
"I’ve never been on the Rosario bandwagon until now, and I sure wasn’t entering the year, as he came off a horrific sub-.300 OBP showing in the Cal League, of all places. But Rosario found his stroke in Double-A somehow, hitting .285/.342/.552 and tightening up his strike zone considerably. Scouts love the guy, and it’s telling that he could catch in the majors at some point this year at just 22 years of age—an extremely early debut for a catcher. Scouts like his defense as well, so he should be an asset both at the plate and behind it. We could be talking about a poor man’s Ivan Rodriguez here."
Upside: 9.6, Downside: 5.6
First base: Jared Clark. Not many first base prospects have much of a chance, and while Clark isn’t really a huge exception to that rule, he’s at least trying to get noticed. A 12th-round pick in 2009, he’s a career .316/.416/.558 hitter, but he’s already 24 and spent all of last year in Low-A. Clark’s also played in very hitter-friendly environments. He’s athletic–he even stole ten bases last year–and a plus defender at first base, but he did strike out 113 times in 110 games last season. Given that he’ll be 25 in May, he’ll need to keep ripping the cover off the ball to get noticed.
Upside: 8.1, Downside: 3.2
Second base: Chris Nelson. The ninth overall pick in 2004, Nelson finally reached Colorado last year, going 7-for-25 with a double. He also hit .317/.379/.498 in Triple-A Colorado Springs, and while that’s a notorious hitter’s park, so is Coors Field. Nelson’s had lots of ups and downs in his career, and he’s now 25, but he’s ready for a role in the bigs. He’s a versatile, if erratic, defender, and could be best served as an offense-oriented utilityman who can hold down a position if somebody gets hurt–like a more athletic Mark DeRosa, perhaps.
Upside: 8.3, Downside: 6.5
Shortstop: Cristhian Adames. Adames is known for his slick glovework at shortstop, but the switch-hitter isn’t a complete slouch at the plate, either–he hit .290/.356/.372 in Low-A last year despite just turning 19 in July. He’s got a solid approach at the plate, and while he doesn’t have too much power, it’s not like that’s a big necessity for a shortstop. He reminds me a bit of Cliff Pennington, who’s quite a valuable player.
Upside: 8.2, Downside: 2.6
Third base: Nolan Arenado. Arenado’s gotten lots of hype, and it’s hard not to like a teenager who can hit .300 and slug .500 in full-season ball. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves with Arenado. There’s little doubt he’s going to make contact, but his power spike is suspicious given his reputation and the park he played in (see Matt Miller‘s 2005 vs. the rest of his career, Rockies fans), and Arenado lacks plate discipline. Worse yet, some speculate he may have to move to first base, as he lacks mobility. Right now, I see Arenado as the NL’s version of Brent Morel: a third base prospect with a good chance of being a solid starter, but not much of a chance to star. Of course, unlike Morel, Arenado has youth on his side, and a breakout could certainly convince me, a la Rosario.
Upside: 8.4, Downside: 3.8
Outfielder #1: Rafael Ortega. Ortega posted some incredible numbers in Rookie ball last season, hitting .358/.416/.510 with 23 steals. The center fielder has a solid approach and good contact skills, and he grew into a bit of power last year, although he doesn’t project to slug too much. He could be an ideal leadoff hitter with his blend of speed, contact, and discipline, and Ortega’s also an excellent center fielder. He’s very underrated and should be on every Rockies fan’s radar.
Upside: 9.1, Downside: 2.5
Outfielder #2: Kyle Parker. Parker, a former quarterback for Clemson, was drafted in the first round last season (26th overall) but played with the Clemson football team in the fall after signing for $1.4 million. He’s a power hitter with (obviously) a strong arm from right field. The 21-year-old should be able to hit homers and get some walks, but he’ll have to answer questions about his contact, and he’s not a speedster by any means. Obviously, we’ll know more about Parker once he gets some pro at-bats in.
Upside: 8.8, Downside: 2.5
Outfielder #3: Corey Dickerson. Dickerson was the Rockies’ eighth-round selection last year, and he immediately went out and hit .348/.412/.634 in Rookie ball. He’s raw in the outfield, but is athletic and should be able to be solid in the corners, and clearly he’s off to a great start offensively, hitting singles, doubles, and homers while drawing a few walks and keeping his strikeout totals reasonable. We’ll see what he does in full-season ball, but right now, he’s a bigtime sleeper.
Upside: 8.6, Downside: 2.8
Starting Pitcher #1: Christian Friedrich. Friedrich ranked 68th on the Top 100:
"Friedrich took a definite step back in 2010, losing over 3 K/9 from 2009 while dealing with one nagging injury after another. Now 23 and still without any track record of dominating the upper minors, the chances that Friedrich becomes an ace are dwindling, particularly in light of the multiple injuries. Still, we’re talking about a lefty with low-90’s heat, arguably the best curve in the minors, and two other good pitches. Since he dominated in 2008-09, give Friedrich something of a mulligan for 2010; there’s still ace potential here, but Friedrich is no longer a safe bet to turn into the next incarnation of 2002 Barry Zito."
Upside: 9.1, Downside: 4.6
Starting Pitcher #2: Tyler Matzek. Matzek also took a downward turn in 2010. Drafted 11th overall in 2010, he was said to have electric stuff, but tinkering with his mechanics left his stuff wildly inconsistent; he occasionally would have games, particularly late in the season, where his fastball was in the 84-87 mph range. Furthermore, his control wasn’t there, as Matzek walked 62 batters in 89 1/3 innings. He certainly has excellent potential if his stuff gets back to where it was in high school, and Matzek’s just 20, but like Friedrich, there are a number of questions here.
Upside: 9.4, Downside: 2.8
Starting Pitcher #3: Chad Bettis. The Rockies’ second-round pick last year out of Texas Tech, Bettis put up a 1.07 ERA in 67 innings between short-season ball and Low-A. He’s a groundball-oriented pitcher who throws lots of strikes with a three-pitch mix. Bettis isn’t necessarily going to wow anybody with his stuff–a low-90’s fastball, 82-85 mph slider, and solid changeup–but he controls it well. He could turn into a mid-rotation rock who throws strikes and gets grounders, a la Carl Pavano.
Upside: 8.5, Downside: 3.3
Starting Pitcher #4: Rob Scahill. Scahill just turned 24 and he has yet to pitch in the upper minors, but you have to applaud him for putting in an excellent year in the Cal League last season. Scahill whiffed 140 batters and walked 59, most impressively allowing only nine homers in 159 innings. Like Dickerson, he’s a former eighth-round selection (2009), so the Rockies are clearly getting value there. Like Bettis, he has a pretty generic fastball/slider/change arsenal, but throws strikes and keeps the ball down, and that’s important in Colorado. He should be a solid back-of-the-rotation starter.
Upside: 7.9, Downside: 5.0
Starting Pitcher #5: Peter Tago. Tago was the 47th overall pick in last year’s draft, but unlike Bettis, we don’t have pro data on him, so Bettis vaults ahead of him thanks to his excellent performance. That’s not to discount Tago, though, who gets Trevor Cahill-esque movement on his low-90’s fastball. He’s still developing his command and his secondary pitches, but the sinker alone should give him a career if he throws strikes. The more he’s able to develop beyond just that one pitch, the better he’ll be. I’m being a bit cautious with the high school draftee, waiting to see if he’ll show some command in pro ball, but his upside is excellent.
Upside: 8.9, Downside: 2.1
Relief Pitcher #1: Rex Brothers. Brothers was a supplemental draftee in 2009. He’s got a solid low-90’s fastball and wipeout slider, but doesn’t have good command, as he walked 18 batters in 23 Double-A innings last year. The 23-year-old has the sort of stuff to be a shutdown reliever, but will need to throw strikes to avoid just being a situational guy. Hong-Chih Kuo is the upside here (hopefully without the various elbow tears).
Upside: 9.0, Downside: 5.7
Relief Pitcher #2: Coty Woods. Woods is a much less heralded relief prospect, which makes sense given that he was a 33rd-round selection in 2009. After a middling pro debut that year, he suddenly exploded onto the scene in late 2010 with a 32/2 K/BB in 26 2/3 Low-A innings. He’s already 23 and will need to move quickly, but the Middle Tennessee State alum keeps his sinker down and in the zone, and he’s got a nice breaking ball that righties can’t touch. He’s a deep sleeper, but should rise up prospect lists with more success in 2011.
Upside: 7.6, Downside: 3.6