Other than the time before the trade deadline, spring training is perhaps the biggest time for trades, as teams attempt to get value for players they don’t see as important to their organizations going forward.
The Indians never really had too much confidence in lefty Aaron Laffey, it seemed, so they finally dealt him today, sending him to the Mariners for second-base prospect Matt Lawson.
The most important thing to take away from this deal is that both players involved have more value than you might think. Let’s look at why.
First off, Aaron Laffey has a career 4.41 ERA and 4.41 FIP. That’s definitely valuable in a starting role, and indeed, he’s been a 3.8 WAR player over the course of his four-year career, a nice bargain at his low salary.
Still, Cleveland didn’t really give him much of a steady role. Laffey’s never avoided Triple-A work for a full season, and he’s had to shuffle from the bullpen to the rotation the last two seasons.
That’s somewhat surprising, since it’s not like Cleveland’s fielded a great team the last couple of years, and Laffey has been worth at least half a win in each of the last four seasons.
Of course, Aaron Laffey is far from a perfect pitcher. He throws an 85-88 mph fastball, and has an underwhelming career 4.35 K/9. When your K/9 is lower than your ERA, that’s usually bad. And he’s not really a control specialist either, with a 3.60 BB/9.
So what does Laffey do well? He gets a good amount of ground balls–51.6% career. Therefore, he’s only allowed 22 homers in his 320 1/3 career innings, a ratio that will only get better at Safeco Field.
Furthermore, Laffey’s got an excellent slider that’s rated well above average in each of his four seasons. His sinking fastball has never been terrible despite its lack of velocity, and his changeup is also a solid pitch.
In short, Laffey’s K/BB isn’t great, but there aren’t many bones to pick beyond that. Heck, FIP overrates strikeout pitchers (or so some complain), and it gave him a 3.92 mark last year, certainly a passing grade.
Just 25, he can certainly eat innings as a fifth starter without embarrassing himself, particularly in Seattle. He’s essentially the same as Paul Maholm (4.48 career ERA, 4.28 FIP, 52.7% GB), and Maholm’s held a starting job for over five seasons and isn’t about to lose it.
Getting Laffey for a rather unheralded prospect like Lawson then may seem like a steal. But let’s not get carried away here. Laffey isn’t going to stay cheap forever (correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe he’s up for arbitration next year), and his skillset isn’t the time you want to overpay for.
Plus, let’s not forget about Lawson, himself an acquisition in the Cliff Lee trade. The big negative with Lawson is that he’s 25 and has never played in Triple-A. Still, he hit .293/.372/.439 in Double-A last year, and provides excellent defense and plate discipline. He’s not going to hit tons of homers, and he isn’t likely to hit .300 either, but he could be a poor man’s Mark Ellis, contributing defense and .335 OBPs along with some doubles. He’s also ready to help soon.
The weird thing is that Lawson makes more sense for Seattle than Cleveland. The Indians already have Cord Phelps and Jason Kipnis at second base, and both could be ready for big league action by mid-2011, which is basically Lawson’s timetable. Phelps has better numbers than Lawson, and he’s played in Triple-A, and if and when Phelps struggles in the bigs, Kipnis should be ready. Why get Lawson too? If he could play short, I suppose that would be another story, but he’s played all of two pro games at the position.
Seattle does have Dustin Ackley, an excellent prospect himself, at second, but unlike Phelps and Kipnis, Ackley may have to move to the outfield, and furthermore, he’s just one guy, not two, so having a guy like Lawson behind him is more important for depth purposes than having him behind both Phelps and Kipnis.
I’ll take Seattle’s side in the deal here, because they’re acquiring a more proven commodity, and their return fits their team better.