At long last, we’ve reached the final edition of my system reviews. And last but not least on the list is the San Diego Padres. I spent the majority of 2010 covering this team for Chicken Friars, so I certainly have plenty of experience with just about every prospect in this system. That led me to make some rather interesting and unconventional selections here.
System Overview:
I really like this system, mainly due to its balance.
Nobody in this system elicits high grades from everybody, but every position has somebody with skills. There are reasons to be down on just about every prospect anyone thinks is elite (Jaff Decker, Donavan Tate, Simon Castro, Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Matt Lollis, etc.), but then again, there’s lots to like about all of those prospects, and just about every evalutor’s going to love at least two or three of them.
On the hitting side, the Padres have a number of players who project as average-ish regulars, with Decker and catcher Jason Hagerty offering something more than that. Rizzo should be an adequate first baseman, Logan Forsythe can hold down second, Drew Cumberland will probably be a decent shortstop, Blake Tekotte can be a solid center fielder, etc.
The real strength here is pitching, though, as the Padres have 8-10 very intriguing starters. And I say this as somebody who’s as down on Casey Kelly as anyone, and who doesn’t really overrate Simon Castro. Really, it’s the other arms in the system that make it elite.
There’s not quite enough sure bets for excellence here to call this a top 5 system, but it’s in the 7-12 range. A really nice group of young talent, very similar to the last system I looked at (Colorado) actually. Between the outfield prospects in LA, Colorado, and San Diego, we’re going to have some really interesting NL West outfields for the next several years.
Catcher: Jason Hagerty. I ranked Hagerty as the 92nd best prospect in baseball on my Top 100:
"For a catcher, Hagerty’s an offensive terror, batting .303/.423/.494 in a tough offensive environment in 2010. He’s just an average defender behind the plate, and at 22, he wasn’t young for the Midwest League, but Hagerty’s the sort of advanced bat who could skip a level and still thrive in 2011, boasting good contact, power, and plate discipline skills. Heck, the guy even switch-hits. I’m not going to go overboard and say he’s the next Jorge Posada, Jason Varitek, or Victor Martinez, but there’s some real potential in Hagerty’s skillset."
Upside: 9.0, Downside: 4.2
First base: Anthony Rizzo. The comparison I always come back to with Rizzo is a bulkier Adam LaRoche. Like LaRoche, he’s a power-oriented hitter who could bash 30 homers in the majors, and while his other skills aren’t terrible, he’s not going to wow you with his contact or walks. He’s also a plus defender with soft hands and solid range at first base. Rizzo hit .263/.334/.481 in Double-A last year, and he should open 2011 in Triple-A at age 21. He’s got the potential to be a solid but unspectacular MLB first baseman, and if that sounds underwhelming to you, remember how few true first base prospects there are out there.
Upside: 8.6, Downside: 5.7
Second base: Logan Forsythe. Forsythe is a walk machine, but he doesn’t have too much power, hitting .253/.377/.337 in Double-A last year. Part of the lack of power was a home park that was brutal on righties, though. He’ll be in a much friendlier park in Triple-A in 2011, so don’t be surprised if Forsythe gets his SLG back up in the .400s. Originally a third baseman, he moved to second last year with acceptable if unspectacular results, and his bat profiles much better there.
Upside: 8.4, Downside: 5.8
Shortstop: Drew Cumberland. Cumberland hit a ridiculous .365/.404/.542 in High-A at age 21, but it was the Cal League, and he’s going to wind up in Petco Park someday, so he still needs to show he can rake in unfriendly environments (like Double-A). He’s an acceptable shortstop, but might fit better defensively at second base, and he’s struggled with injuries in each of the past two seasons. Still, he’s an elite contact hitter with good speed and some secondary skills, so if he keeps hitting, he’ll find an everyday gig in the middle infield soon enough.
Upside: 8.9, Downside: 4.1
Third base: Jedd Gyorko. The Padres’ second-round pick in 2010, Gyorko scorched the Northwest League and hit solidly in the Midwest League in his pro debut, setting him up to open 2011 in High-A. A college shortstop, he was drafted with serious defensive questions, but acquitted himself reasonably at third, so he should be able to stick there. He doesn’t have any signature offensive skill, but his contact, discipline, and power are all solid, so the 22-year-old could wind up as a, well, solid starting third baseman if he progresses normally. Casey McGehee is his upside, roughly.
Upside: 8.3, Downside: 3.3
Outfielder #1: Jaff Decker. Decker came in as the best Padres prospect, ranking #30 on my Top 100:
"Decker nearly made my top 10 last year, but got off to a horrific start in 2010, missing a month with hamstring problems and showing zero offensive ability in his first few weeks. From there, he rounded right back into his walks-and-power form to hit .262/.374/.500 at age 20 in High-A, including .305/.439/.616 after the All-Star break (as opposed to .195/.256/.319 before, when he was dealing with the injury). Decker doesn’t possess great abilities aside from the bat, but power hitters with .400 OBP ability are a rare breed."
Upside: 9.4, Downside: 5.5
Outfielder #2: Blake Tekotte. Tekotte is an undersized and underhyped center fielder who, like Cumberland and Decker, crushed Cal League pitching last year, hitting .310/.419/.522. The power stayed with him in Double-A, but his BABIP fell 77 points, so he hit .264/.324/.448 there. 24 in May, he’s got to move fast, but he’s got 15/30 potential and some solid plate discipline and center field defense as well. He reminds me a bit of fellow late bloomers Nate McLouth, Angel Pagan, and Andres Torres.
Upside: 8.6, Downside: 5.5
Outfielder #3: Reymond Fuentes. Fuentes, like Rizzo, was acquired from Boston in the Adrian Gonzalez trade. He’s a raw outfielder who hit .270/.328/.377 in Low-A last year at age 19, also stealing 42 bases. His power and plate discipline have yet to come around, but he’s got years to learn them, and he already makes decent contact, runs like the wind, and plays excellent outfield defense. He could use a re-do at Low-A, at least to start the year, but is an intriguing long-term prospect.
Upside: 8.9, Downside: 2.9
Starting Pitcher #1: Matt Lollis. Lollis ranked 44th on my Top 100:
"Like [Andrew] Brackman, Lollis is an absolute behemoth with a top-of-the-line fastball-curveball combination. The difference between the two is that Lollis will start 2011 at the same level Brackman began 2010 at—High-A—despite being just 20 (Brackman was 24 to open this year). For a guy who’s usually listed between 6’7” and 6’9” and 250-280 lbs. Lollis has good mechanics and command, allowing him to shut down the Midwest League as a teenager. He’s still got lots to prove, but if everything breaks right, he could be an ace."
Upside: 9.4, Downside: 3.7
Starting Pitcher #2: Simon Castro. Castro was 54th:
"Like [Rays righthander and #60 prospect Alex] Colome, Castro has ace-quality stuff, featuring a moving 91-95 mph heater and one of the best sliders you’ll see. Also like Colome, his 2010 performance was a bit underwhelming, at least by top prospect standards, which is why he misses the top 50. At 22, he wasn’t especially young for a top prospect in Double-A, and he whiffed just 7.43 batters per nine there before getting touched up in a late-season Triple-A look. There’s little doubt Castro will be an effective major leaguer, but in order to be a true ace the strikeouts are going to need to come back next year."
Upside: 8.8, Downside: 6.0
Starting Pitcher #3: Juan Oramas. This short Mexican lefty came out of nowhere in 2010, just like Manny Banuelos before him in 2009. Oramas’ stuff, particularly his changeup, isn’t quite on Banuelos’ level, but it’s certainly solid, with an out-pitch curveball and 90-93 mph fastball. Even the Cal League couldn’t really stop him, as Oramas posted a 90/26 K/BB there in 84 innings. His flyball tendencies will play very well in San Diego, and he could turn into a C.J. Wilson-type pitcher.
Upside: 8.7, Downside: 4.8
Starting Pitcher #4: Casey Kelly. You’re not going to see Kelly below both Lollis and Oramas very often, so I get that I need to explain my pessimism here. But first, let’s talk about the positives. Kelly’s got a nice three-pitch arsenal, with an 88-93 mph fastball, good changeup, and workable breaking ball. Just 20 years old last season, he spent the whole year in Double-A and put up an 81/35 K/BB in 95 innings, for a decent 4.03 FIP (more troublesome was his 5.31 ERA). Still, it’s tough for me to see why Kelly’s supposed to be a front-of-the-rotation guy. His stuff is solid but not great, so he’d have to have Halladay-esque control to be a truly elite prospect in my eyes. With a walk rate that more than doubled last year, he’s clearly not at that level, so he strikes me as more of a mid-rotation starter who’s average-to-above-average at everything.
Upside: 8.4, Downside: 5.4
Starting Pitcher #5: Jose De Paula. De Paula has similar stuff to Oramas, with a low-90’s heater and plus curveball. He also throws plenty of strikes, as his 69/20 K/BB in 85 2/3 Low-A innings attests. He could use a better changeup, but he’s just 21 and has time to work on that. He’s another bigtime sleeper who could rise up prospect lists with a big 2011, particularly since he’s ticketed for the Cal League.
Upside: 8.2, Downside: 3.1
Relief Pitcher #1: Ernesto Frieri. Frieri grabs the top spot since he’s already proven himself in the majors. The 25-year-old had a 1.71 ERA, 2.92 FIP, and 41/17 K/BB in 31 2/3 innings last year, showing off a lethal low-90’s fastball and solid slurve. The deceptive pitcher isn’t particularly flashy, but he clearly gets the job done, and if his control shapes up, he should be an excellent relief arm for the next decade, provided he stays healthy.
Upside: 8.6, Downside: 6.9
Relief Pitcher #2: Evan Scribner. A finesse righty with an excellent curve and pristine command, Scribner had an 81/15 K/BB in 66 Double-A innings last year, but was forced to spend the whole year there due to the bevy of relievers in the Padres organization. Born the exact same day as Frieri, he’s a bit old for a prospect, but the organization takes him seriously and he’s clearly doing quite a bit right. He’s a nice relief sleeper who should have no problem finding success in Petco Park.
Upside: 8.3, Downside: 6.2