Entering spring training, it was something of a foregone conclusion that rookie phenom Domonic Brown was going to win the Phillies’ right field job and run with it.
However, early in the spring, Brown flailed at the plate, while veteran Ben Francisco demolished Grapefruit League pitching. Then, to top it all off, Brown broke his hand yesterday, knocking him out of action for 3-6 weeks.
So, what do the Phillies do now? And what does this mean for Brown, Francisco, and fellow RF candidate John Mayberry?
Let’s start out by looking at Ben Francisco. The great thing about Francisco is that not only does he have an extensive MLB track record, but he’s been very consistent in his time in the big leagues. Check out his lines from his three full seasons: .266/.332/.438, .257/.332/.447, and .268/.327/.441. At 29, he pretty much is what he is–a middling defensive outfielder with a solid but unspectacular offensive skillset. His career line is .263/.329/.446, while right fielders as a whole hit .270/.342/.442 last year. So he’s acceptable but slightly below-average, both offensively and defensively.
In short, Ben Francisco is an ideal fourth outfielder who can hold down a starting job if a starter gets injured. Still, his best role is as a reserve who plays against lefties (career .267/.347/.460 vs. LHP). He’d be a decent starter on, say, the Royals, but really isn’t the sort of player who should be getting 500 ABs on a team with championship aspirations.
Given that Brown is only out for 3-6 weeks, he should be back by the end of April at the latest, and Francisco’s a perfectly decent stopgap for the opening weeks of the season.
Of course, that’s not the only issue here, however. Brown had three more strikeouts than any other batter in spring training when he went down, going 1-for-16 with nine K’s. Reports of his swing and bat speed were negative, as he didn’t look to be in his usual form. Meanwhile, Francisco’s hitting .421/.476/.947 with five extra-base hits in 19 ABs.
One has to wonder if the injury could almost be a blessing in disguise for Brown. If he kept up his awful pace in the spring, he’d likely be jettisoned to Triple-A Lehigh Valley for more seasoning and not brought up for at least a month. Now, Brown’s performance is removed from the equation–if Francisco cools off, especially once the season starts, it would look kind of silly (whether it’s actually justified or not) to send a healed Brown down to the minors. If Francisco’s hitting .200 when Brown’s ready, the Phillies will be more inclined to simply activate the prodigy, whereas Brown likely would’ve faced an extended minor league assignment had he continued to perform badly. Of course, there’s still a chance he winds up in the minors anyway–Francisco probably has the job until he stops hitting or Brown gets back and tears up the minors. It’s not like Brown–who hit .210/.257/.355 with Philadelphia last year–is an established major leaguer.
Let’s not forget Mayberry, who owns the same career wOBA as Francisco (.338). He gets there in a very different fashion, however, as his career line is .232/.274/.536. A massive hulk of a man, the 27-year-old is hitting a solid .294/.368/.529 this spring, with one homer and only two strikeouts in 17 at-bats. Strikeouts have long been an issue for Mayberry, who owns a 27/3 K/BB in 69 career MLB at-bats. He hit .267/.328/.412 last year in Triple-A, underwhelming for a 26-year-old, but he cut down on his strikeouts and stole 20 bases, and the Phillies think he’s a late bloomer.
Mayberry will likely make the team now, assuming Brown isn’t ready, and he may even get to start if he outslugs Francisco this spring. Brown’s injury probably benefits him the most of the three players, because he was facing the most uncertain fate of the three–Francisco will likely be a good fourth outfielder for many years, and Brown will be up at some point no matter what, but Mayberry needs some breaks to have a long career. It’s imperative for him to take the opportunity he gets and run with it.
Ultimately, it’s doubtful that Brown’s injury affects the Phillies’ fortunes much. The bigger issue is whether he’ll be back in form after he heals, since he wasn’t looking good before the injury. In the meantime, Francisco should bring his workmanlike brand of competence, and Mayberry may hit a couple of moonshot homers, but Brown is obviously still the preferred solution, and if he isn’t back in his minor league form (.327/.391/.589 last year), then Philadelphia will have some issues in the outfield corners–Raul Ibanez, Ben Francisco, and John Mayberry aren’t exactly championship-caliber starters.