Having the first pick overall in the 2009 and 2010 drafts allowed the Nationals to land Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper. Both players were the best their respective classes had to offer and an argument can be made that they represent the best pitching and hitting prospects of the draft era. They are certainly the most hyped prospects to ever be drafted.
Anthony Rendon may not be on quite that level, but heading into the spring, he was considered to be the top player available in this year’s class. As fate would have it when the Nationals were on the clock with the 6th pick in the 2011 draft, Rendon was still on the board.
I imagine there were a few hugs and cheers in their war room as they snatched him up.
The Stuff:
So how does the top college player fall from 1st to 6th? In this particular case, it’s all about the injuries. Prior to this season he injured his right ankle on two separate occasions. The first was a torn ligament and then second was a broken bone. Both required surgery, but both were regarded as freak accidents. This year he strained his shoulder while stretching and it has plagued him all year.
While his injury impacted his bat speed and his power, he was still able to show off his advanced plate discipline. When healthy he still projects to hit above 0.300 with an elite level OBP and 30 HR potential. Just based on his offensive ability alone he figures to be a well above average major league regular.
Of course Rendon isn’t just a guy with a great bat, he’s also a superb defensive player with above average arm strength and excellent range at 3B. Though he isn’t blessed with with great speed, he is a smart and instinctive base runner.
The Stats:
2009: 242 AB, 0.388/.461/.702, 14 2B, 20 HR, 31 BB and 23 SO
2010: 226 AB, 0.394/.530/.801, 12 2B, 26 HR, 65 BB and 22 SO
2011: 214 AB, 0.327/.520/.523, 20 2B, 6 HR, 80 BB and 33 SO
The Future:
There are those who believe that he may need to move to 2B, but I think those discussions are a bit premature. First, we need to see how his shoulder bounces back. Prior to the injury he was regarded as a gold glove caliber 3B and if his shoulder is sound, I see no reason to alter that assessment.
Ryan Zimmerman’s presence at 3B and his long term contract (he’s signed through 2013) do play a part in Rendon’s future, but a lot can change in the course of the next two years. Zimmerman is currently one of the best 3B in all of baseball, but he’s fallen victim to the injury bug several times in his own right (2008, 2010 and 2011). It’s not out of the question that Rendon could be the heir apparent at the hot corner if Zimmerman is deemed too expensive or too worn down to sign to another long term deal before the 2014 season. If Rendon is ready before then, Zimmerman would also figure to be an attractive chip in the trade market.
As an advanced hitter with great plate discipline and excellent defensive skills, Rendon should move through the minors quickly. Assuming he stays healthy, a taste of the majors in 2012 is not out of the question. By 2013 he should be ready for extended playing time at the major league level. Whether he winds up replacing Ryan Zimmerman or winds up playing in the same infield with him, the Nationals landed a potential difference maker with their first pick.
EDITOR’S NOTE: For more on Anthony Rendon and the rest of the Washington Nationals organization, check out District on Deck.