We are well into August for the 2011 baseball season with enough data available to make some conclusions. Today we focus on this year’s worst players. Currently, 12 MLB players are producing below replacement level. As you’ll see, there’s a lot of money being paid to this group.
Determining a player’s value is a difficult process. For over a century, scouts relied on the “eyeball test,” and rudimentary statistics. In 2011, we have the luxury of using advanced statistics. While there is not a single metric available that can provide a complete explanation of a player’s value, WAR (wins above replacement) is the most comprehensive metric available. (If you are unfamiliar with WAR, please check out FanGraphs for a full explanation.) Now on to this year’s worst players…
The Dirty Dozen
Adam Dunn (White Sox): -1.8 WAR
wOBA: .277 (.165/.296/.302)
2011 Salary: $12 million
Raul Ibanez (Phillies): -1.1 WAR
wOBA: .307 (.240/.287/.419)
2011 Salary: $11.5 million
Alexis Rios (White Sox): -0.9 WAR
wOBA: .253 (.216/.258/.315)
2011 Salary: $12 million
Chris Johnson (Astros): -0.9 WAR
wOBA: .286 (.245/.286/.373)
2011 Salary: $424,000
Lyle Overbay (Pirates): -0.9 WAR
wOBA: .290 (.227/.300/.349)
2011 Salary: $5 million
Orlando Cabrera (Giants): -0.7 WAR
wOBA: .265 (.244/.275/.319)
2011 Salary: $1 million
Aubrey Huff (Giants): -0.6 WAR
wOBA: .297 (.249/.304/.380)
2011 Salary: $10 million
Ichiro Suzuki (Mariners): -0.6 WAR
wOBA: .284 (.268/.309/.314)
2011 Salary: $17 million
Aaron Hill (Blue Jays): -0.4 WAR
wOBA: .270 (.227/.277/.313)
2011 Salary: $5 million
Juan Pierre (White Sox): -0.3 WAR
wOBA: .293 (.276/.331/.325)
2011 Salary: $8.5 million
James Loney (Dodgers): -0.3 WAR
wOBA: .274 (.251/.294/.325)
2011 Salary: $4.875 million
Vladimir Guerrero (Orioles): -0.1 WAR
wOBA: .306 (.274/.310/.387)
2011 Salary: $8 million
The Top 5
Each of these players earns a spot on the “dirty dozen” list for unique reasons. Adam Dunn takes top honors by playing every facet of the game poorly. Four players on the list have been worse than Dunn at the plate (by wOBA), but he manages a lower WAR by playing poor defense and running the bases atrociously. Raul Ibanez has posted an almost respectable wOBA, as he is the “best” hitter on the list. However, his defense has been so bad that it drags his WAR down to 2nd worst in baseball. Alex Rios is 3rd thanks to his unbelievable lack of production at the plate. Chris Johnson and Lyle Overbay round out the top 5 due to their below-league-average performances in all three categories (hit/field/bases).
Overview
At the plate, all of the players in the “dirty dozen” list fall below league average production. Defensively, only James Loney is better than league average (4.2 UZR), while every other player on the list has a negative UZR.
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