Sabermetricians have developed several tools to help decipher a player’s true value. One such metric is BABIP (batting average on balls in play). The basic idea is that BABIP is largely influenced by luck. If a player has a BABIP well above the league average, it is likely that he has benefited from “good luck,” (bloops falling in for hits, weakly hit balls finding holes, etc…) and the player’s BABIP will likely regress to the mean. Having said that, some players are able to sustain an abnormally high BABIP based on skill set. For instance, Ichiro Suzuki has posted career BABIP of .352, well above league average. His speed and ability to make good contact throughout his career made an abnormally high BABIP possible.
Other players can defy the logic behind BABIP-regression with pitch selection. Players who “chase” bad pitches out of the zone are more likely to make weak contact, thus resulting in a lower BABIP. Conversely, more selective hitters can make solid contact more often, in turn making a high BABIP more likely.
The 12 most selective hitters in 2011 are listed below. (O-Swing% = percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone.)
MLB Average O-Swing% – 30.3%
Bobby Abreu (Angels): O-Swing% – 18.90%
Yunel Escobar (Blue Jays): O-Swing% – 19.40%
Ian Kinsler (Rangers): O-Swing% – 19.70%
Kosuke Fukudome (Indians): O-Swing% – 20.40%
Josh Willingham (Athletics): O-Swing% – 20.50%
Carlos Santana (Indians): O-Swing% -20.80%
Nick Swisher (Yankees): O-Swing% -20.90%
Todd Helton (Rockies): O-Swing% – 21.70%
Brett Gardner (Yankees): O-Swing% – 21.90%
Russell Martin (Yankees): O-Swing% -22.40%
Dexter Fowler (Rockies): O-Swing% -22.50%
David DeJesus (Athletics): O-Swing% -22.60%
Of the 12 players listed, 8 have a BABIP above the MLB average (.294). As a group, their collective BABIP (.303) is nearly 10 points higher than the MLB average. There are certainly other factors that may contribute to the BABIP of this group, however that the most selective hitters in 2011, generally speaking, get more hits on balls in play than the rest of the league.
On the other side of the spectrum are the hitters who chase the most pitches outside of the zone. Six players in 2011 have an O-Swing% greater than 42% (Vladimir Guerrero, Adam Jones, Miguel Olivo, Alex Gonzalez, A.J. Pierzynski, and Mark Trumbo). These players chase nearly half the pitches they see outside of the strike zone. Of the 6 players listed, 4 have a BABIP below the MLB average. As a group, their BABIP (.287) is 7 points lower than the MLB average.
Multiple variables can influence BABIP. Nonetheless, the most selective hitters in 2011 have a collective BABIP which is 16 points higher than the most aggressive hitters. Surely “luck” plays a role in a player’s BABIP from year to year. However, those players who can lay off the pitches outside of the strike zone increase their chances of outperforming BABIP expectations.
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