Early in 2011, the talk of the Low-A South Atlantic League was Nationals prospect and 2010 1st overall draft pick Bryce Harper, who tore up the league as an 18-year-old. But Harper’s numbers paled in comparison to those of Pirates first base prospect Matt Curry.
Of course, Curry’s lack of hype compared to Harper came with good reason–he was a chunky 22-year-old limited to first base. A 16th round pick out of TCU in 2010, he had hit .299/.421/.477 in short-season ball in his pro debut, but lacked the athleticism, defensive ability, or power projection to be a future major leaguer.
An incredible .361/.477/.671 line in 46 SAL games changed that outlook, though. He ripped 27 extra-base hits while posting a fantastic 29/35 K/BB and even stealing six bases, looking like a huge offensive force.
Pittsburgh responded by skipping Curry up to Double-A, and his results haven’t been up to par.
He’s shown none of the all-around offensive prowess he did in the lower minors, hitting a meek .246/.323/.388 in 81 Double-A games. Given his position, that just doesn’t cut it.
One could argue that Curry was rushed–he did, after all, get promoted to Double-A just eleven months after being drafted. But he also is a first baseman who turned 23 in July and hasn’t really shown much improvement–the only difference between his first 40 games and last 41 games in Double-A is slightly higher walk and strikeout rates.
What I find really interesting about the Pirates’ handling of Curry is that it reflects my own philosophy with players of this ilk. Curry is emblematic of a certain type of player–the unheralded old-for-his-level college draftee who dominates against mostly younger/inferior competition in the lower minors.
It’s nearly impossible to render meaningful judgment on such a player’s potential until he gets to “pick on people his own size,” as the tired cliche goes, but too often, teams take it very slow with these sorts of players due to their lack of pedigree. And therefore, two oft-erroneous judgments of the player can result–either a) he never gets taken seriously due to being old for his levels and just winds up an unfairly labeled Quad-A player, or b) his organization, fans of his team, or evaluators simply go by the stats and pencil the player into future MLB lineups when he hasn’t done enough to prove he belongs there.
Rushing these players to more age-appropriate levels allows them to be evaluated in better context. In this case, Matt Curry appears to be a rather insignificant prospect unless he makes some major strides with the bat; had he been kept in Low-A or even High-A for all of 2011, he would likely be deigned the “Pirates 1B of the future” due to (presumably) superior production at the easier levels.
Curry’s collapse in Double-A also serves as something of a general warning to those of us (including myself) who follow a fairly statistical bent in analysis. Numbers can certainly be shiny, and it’s really easy to think something like “But he’s dominating Low-A so much! There’s no way he’d be so much worse in the upper minors that he wouldn’t still be interesting, right?”
Now, that line of thinking is dismissed more often than I think it should be, but even if you subscribe to that sort of reasoning as much as (or more than) I do, there are also plenty of guys like Curry who prove that scouts are often right and we can’t simply just translate numbers from one level to another.
As somebody who tends to get worked up about the apathy of teams toward prospects like Curry (particularly when it comes to Quad-A mashers who never get a fair look), I have to say that it was quite refreshing to see Pittsburgh give Curry the look he deserved. To me, that’s reflective of sound organizational thinking. And hey, it didn’t work out for Curry, but now the Pirates know they shouldn’t count on him. That’s huge! Imagine if they had left him to tear up A-ball and became convinced he was their future first baseman. Perhaps they would purposefully eschew the position in next year’s draft or trade away other talent at the position because of that confidence–a confidence which would have been misplaced, as his actual Double-A results show (Sorry if this is getting hard to follow).
Anyway, it’s a shame Curry couldn’t keep up the mashing, but not only do I not blame the Pirates for trying with his promotion, I really commend them for it.
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