Harvesting Opinion is a regular feature on Seedlings to Stars. Each week, six of FanSided’s team blogs send S2S a question relating to their team’s minor league system, and we answer them in this space–each question gets one article devoted to answering it. In this way, we make sure we regularly get to discuss hot-button issues relating to the systems of every team, as these go on a five-week cycle.
Please note that any statistics used may be a day or two out of date, as we prepare our answers over the course of a week.
In this edition, we tackle a question sent to us from our Colorado Rockies site Rox Pile:
Rockies fans are waiting anxiously to see the major league debut of catcher Wilin Rosario this September. The Rockies have been out of it for a while, but can Rosario help restore the little faith that the Rockies have in their team and front office right now?
Nathaniel says: My opinion on Wilin Rosario has fluctuated rather wildly over the past few years. I thought people got too high on him too quickly in short-season, and was thoroughly unimpressed by his stint in the hitter-friendly Cal League in 2009. Then, he suddenly put it all together in Double-A last year as a 21-year-old, causing him to have a Devin Mesoraco-esque rise up my rankings. And now, repeating the level, he’s bashed 21 homers but also sports a 91/19 K/BB and .287 OBP.
And he’s a 22-year-old Double-A repeater. Now, I still think Rosario has a big league future—we can’t just ignore 2010, and catchers often develop late—but we could just be talking about Miguel Olivo 2.0 here. I’d be wary of anointing Rosario any sort of savior until he can show that he can control the strike zone.
At this point, the Double-A player who Rockies fans should be excited about is Tim Wheeler, a center fielder who’s bashed 33 homers and stolen 21 bases. Rosario remains interesting, but his career has been marred by so much inconsistency that we have to exercise caution in our projections.
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Wally says: Rosario has set a new career high in games played, and, by extension, in total bases. These are relevant milestones, but they are the two biggest positives of his season. The games played mark is especially important after he had surgery to repair an ACL tear last August; after all, a healthy Rosario is better than an injured one.
Health aside, however, his SLG has dropped 95 points – from .552 to .457 – and Nathaniel already mentioned the OBP and issues with his SO to BB. All of this occurred while he repeated Double-A. Instead of taking another step forward as you’d expect, his numbers have regressed, and that has to be a cause for some concern.
Also of concern are his pronounced L/R splits, which may relegate him to a platoon or back up role. Wilin destroys LHP to the tune of 0.323/.348/.569 in 130 AB, but is feeble against RHP with a line of 0.215/.254/.404 in 275 AB. Unfortunately, this is not a new development and his SO/BB is substandard whether he faces a lefty or righty.
Defensively, he remains a solid prospect. He’s thrown out 38% of baserunners this season, which is right in line with his career mark of 41%. He’s shown some improvement in the passed ball department, allowing 13 in 95 games this season, compared to 11 in 67 during 2010.
Catchers rarely ever take a straight path to the majors, so the up and down nature of Wilin Rosario’s career is far from abnormal. While his prospect star has dimmed a bit this season, he remains a guy to keep an eye on and a guy that should reach the majors (beyond his token September call-up) at some point in the future. He is not, however, a guy that is going to restore faith or dramatically shift public opinion on the inner workings of the organization.
For more on the Rockies, check out Rox Pile.
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