Many popular opinions of pitching prospects are formed from general scouting reports. While these reports are invaluable resources, they can’t always be trusted. Hundreds of minor league hurlers are credited with “mid-90′s velocity,” but very few MLB starters actually have that grade of heat, for example. It’s incredibly frustrating to hear about a pitcher with “a mid-90′s heater and plus curve,” only to have him come up to the big leagues and show a fastball that averages 90.5 mph and a slider.
When a pitcher come up to the majors, we can finally get a foolproof reading on what exactly his arsenal is comprised of, thanks to the great Pitch F/X system. In this series, I analyze just that–the “stuff” of recently-promoted MLB pitchers. Now that they’ve achieved their big league dreams and thus factor directly into the MLB picture, it’s high time that we know exactly what these guys are providing.
This time, I’m taking a look at Rays reliever Brandon Gomes.
A short righthander, Tampa’s Brandon Gomes put up some video-game-esque numbers in the minors over the last three seasons–heck, I play MLB 2K11 a fair amount, and I find it quite difficult to strike out 11-14 batters per nine innings.
Nonetheless, he was never seen as a top prospect, even among relievers. Credited with a low-90’s fastball and plus splitter, he was old for his levels, which mitigated the huge numbers. Gomes didn’t make it to Triple-A until he was 26, after being traded from the Padres organization to the Rays this past offseason. Due to the incredible bullpen depth in San Diego, there wasn’t room for Gomes in the big leagues, let alone Triple-A; the Rays, on the other hand, had just overhauled their bullpen and had a ton of open spots.
A typically impressive showing upon his first look at Triple-A (40/7 K/BB in 25 1/3 IP) got Gomes up to the big leagues for the first time, but he hasn’t been as good as one would expect based on his minor league numbers, with a 23/15 K/BB in 30 IP.
Often credited with a 90-94 mph fastball in scouting reports, Gomes hasn’t shown that sort of heat, with an 89-92 mph heater that has averaged 90.5 mph this season. It’s a four-seamer with a bit of extra movement that comes from his fairly low arm slot.
Gomes also chucks a sweepy slider in the upper 70’s, a rather large velocity separation between his fastball and slider. He also has the splitter in the 81-84 mph range to provide more of a harder offspeed look.
As one might expect, Gomes takes a traditional two-pitch, fastball/slider approach against right-handed batters, and then opts for a fastball/splitter look against lefthanders.
A look at his current platoon split (6.02 FIP vs. LHB, 3.53 FIP vs. RHB) points to the biggest problem with Gomes’ current effectiveness–that fastball/splitter combination simply isn’t doing enough to get lefthanders out, despite the consistent praise the splitter received in the minors.
The problem with Gomes’ splitter is not that it can’t draw empty swings–in the 45 he’s thrown to lefties, he’s already induced seven whiffs. But he’s not just using it as a traditional “chase pitch”–it’s an important part of what he’s doing against lefties, so he’s using it ~1/4 of the time to them. And that means he occasionally has to bring the splitter up and into the zone:
You can see there that he does have a number of the traditional “in the dirt” splitters, but he’s also throwing a bunch of them as useless chase pitches up and away, and leaving more than you’d like right in batters’ wheelhouses. Of these 45 pitches, only ~1/3 are truly well-placed. As a result, when the pitch isn’t swung and missed at, it’s tended to either be taken for an easy ball or put into play.
Another issue against lefthanders is Gomes’ relatively low arm slot. His delivery is rather atypical for a short pitcher, as it’s very “arms and legs-y,” with a high legkick and an exaggerated bend that brings to mind former Orioles closer Chris Ray. All of that deception makes Gomes’ relatively pedestrian fastball/slider duo play up against his fellow righties, but lefties get a much better look at his release and can more easily tune out all the extraneous movement in his motion.
It’s tough to see Gomes ultimately figuring out how to quiet top lefty bats, short of him suddenly gaining Cliff Lee-esque precision with his fastball to set up the splitter. That’s a fairly glaring issue, and it’s not one that’s easy to hide in the lower-substitution AL, particularly the AL East. Gomes could have a nice career as a righty reliever in the NL, but he’s already 27 and can’t be counted on to dramatically improve. Without premium velocity, command, or offspeed pitches, it’s hard to see him as more than a sixth-inning pitcher in the AL or a seventh-inning guy in the matchup-heavy NL.