Roy Halladay is Clearly NL Cy Young Frontrunner

It already seems like the NL Cy Young argument has come down to two terrific aces who both have compelling cases. To me, however, Roy Halladay is clearly the winner as of right now. The distance between them in WAR (8 to 6.8) is pretty sizeable given how tight the other awards races are. The only real advantage that Clayton Kershaw holds is in his strikeout rate, but that is negated when you look at Halladay’s minuscule walk rate.

The mainstay pitching statistics FIP and xFIP have Halladay ranked higher by a good amount, but SIERA says that things are extremely close between the two pitchers. I think there is some middle ground here, but you have to remember that FIP and xFIP don’t reward pitchers who get those key grounders nearly enough. That being said, Halladay has the huge advantage (or disadvantage, depending on what vantage point you are looking from) as his GB% is 51 to Kershaw’s 43.4.

You may look at Halladay’s BABIP of .300 and say that he has less luck than Kershaw (.272 BABIP), but you would be wrong as both of their totals are within their respective career norms. That somewhat balances out their FIP totals, but that balancing is definitely cancelled out by Halladay’s unattributed GB%.

Halladay’s low HR/FB% should be attributed to skill rather than luck, because we all know how good Doc is at keeping the ball in the park. Kershaw, on the other hand, has been a little bit lucky. But I don’t think this marginal difference is enough to warrant much consideration in this heated battle.  Some people like to know who has the advantage in WPA, the QBR of baseball, and they would see that Halladay has a comfortable lead in this clutch-weighted pitching statistic. Although WPA is best used for evaluating relievers, it offers a unique perspective when comparing starters. Of course, we can’t take WPA too seriously because it rates Ian Kennedy as the best pitcher in baseball this season. That’s no knock on him- he’s a very good pitcher- but nobody would ever mention his season in the same breath as Halladay’s, regardless of the 20 wins. Because, as most of us realize, wins are a terrible stat when comparing two players’ seasons.

Both pitchers are also very different in terms of skill-sets, because Kershaw is a guy who relies on the best slider in baseball- not a bad pitch to rely on- and a deadly fastball. Halladay, on the other hand, uses a steady diet of cutters and sinkers that he mixes in with a knee-buckling curveball. Kershaw gets the K’s, Halladay has the control and the stamina to keep on mowing down opposing hitters.

When all is said and done, the statistics and pitch data point to Halladay as being the better pitcher. Clayton Kershaw’s season has also been a wonder to behold, but Halladay has simply mastered hitters in every facet of the game. While I have gushed about Kershaw’s insane ability to whiff hitters, Halladay isn’t so bad in that department either. But it’s his control and ability to get those important outs that stands out the most, and the ability to consistently get outs trumps a nasty slider any day.