Name: Joel Carreno
DOB: 3/7/87
Organization: Blue Jays
Position: Pitcher
Notable 2011 Stats: 3.41 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 12 HRA, 68 BB, 152 K, 38% GB% in 134 2/3 IP with New Hampsire (AA);
1.15 ERA, 2.83 FIP, 1 HR, 4 BB, 14 K, 53.7% GB% in 15 2/3 IP with Blue Jays
Why He’s This High: Carreno has put up incredible strikeout numbers in the minors for two years running. He struck out 173 batters in 137 2/3 High-A innings in 2010, and many predicted he would come down to earth in Double-A. Still, he managed to strike out over ten batters per nine innings there. He jumped over Triple-A straight to the Blue Jays bullpen in late August and had little problem with the transition.
The righthander is best known for his plus breaking ball, a slurvy pitch that comes in from 77-83 mph. As I discussed in his stuff breakdown, he pounds the strike zone with the pitch, and MLB hitters had little answer for it even when Carreno threw it over half the time in his relief stint.
Carreno also boasts a solid sinking fastball in the 88-93 mph range, and an average changeup.
Since he’s come up to the majors and looked excellent in relief, Carreno’s floor is “excellent major league reliever,” barring some sort of unforeseen setback. He also has the potential to become a very solid starting pitcher.
Why He’s This Low: Carreno will be 25 by Opening Day next season, and it would be relatively easy to make the case that he has the lowest upside of any pitcher on this list.
He’s somewhat undersized and flies open in his delivery, so it’s open for debate how long he’d be able to sustain a starter’s workload before suffering some sort of serious injury. He also throws a ton of breaking balls, which puts more pressure on his arm than those of most other hurlers.
Carreno ran into some trouble with walks in Double-A this year (4.54 BB/9), and while his control problems didn’t show up in the majors, that is something of a red flag. His fastball and changeup, while perfectly serviceable, aren’t going to morph into plus pitches, and Carreno didn’t put many fastballs in the strike zone in the majors. That could go a long way toward explaining the walks in Double-A–his free pass rate went up as he had to use the heater more. If you’re scared to put your fastball in the strike zone, you won’t last long as a major league starting pitcher.
Conclusions: Carreno’s got one plus (bordering on plus-plus) pitch and two average offerings, and his minor league track record is excellent. He’s going to get strikeouts with his breaking ball, which at the very least will allow him to become a good setup man.
However, there are serious concerns with Carreno’s durability, upside, and future role–he’s old for a prospect and small and breaking-ball heavy for a starting pitcher. He gets bonus points, like Yonder Alonso, for coming up to the majors and excelling, but there’s a good chance he ends up as merely a plus setup guy or a Jonathan Sanchez/Bud Norris-type starter.
Carreno’s ultimate upside, however, is as a starter who can succeed with mostly the two-pitch mix, still piling up a ton of whiffs–basically, Ervin Santana.
Previous installments in the Seedlings To Stars 2012 Top 100 Prospects:
Introduction
#100 Tyler Pastornicky
#99 Henry Rodriguez
#98 Francisco Lindor
#97 Yonder Alonso
#96 Taylor Green
#95 Barret Loux
#94 Christian Yelich
#93 Ronald Torreyes
#92 Trevor Rosenthal
#91 Chad Bettis
#90 John Lamb
For more on the Blue Jays, check out Jays Journal.
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