Many popular opinions of pitching prospects are formed from general scouting reports. While these reports are invaluable resources, they can’t always be trusted. Hundreds of minor league hurlers are credited with “mid-90′s velocity,” but very few MLB starters actually have that grade of heat, for example. It’s incredibly frustrating to hear about a pitcher with “a mid-90′s heater and plus curve,” only to have him come up to the big leagues and show a fastball that averages 90.5 mph and a slider.
When a pitcher come up to the majors, we can finally get a foolproof reading on what exactly his arsenal is comprised of, thanks to the great Pitch F/X system. In this series, I analyze just that–the “stuff” of recently-promoted MLB pitchers. Now that they’ve achieved their big league dreams and thus factor directly into the MLB picture, it’s high time that we know exactly what these guys are providing.
This time, I’m taking a look at Cardinals swingman Brandon Dickson.
Entering the 2011 season, I thought Brandon Dickson was a nice dark-horse candidate for the Cardinals’ fifth-starter job, since he had turned in a very solid 2010 in the Triple-A Memphis rotation. He didn’t ultimately win that competition, but the 26-year-old righthander had another fine year with the Redbirds and got into four MLB games with the big-league Cardinals, including one start.
As is the case with the many of the pitchers I’m looking at in this series, Dickson faced far too few batters for us to get a good read on how effective his individual pitches are in the big leagues. Overall, he faced 34 batters in 8 1/3 innings, allowing just three runs on nine hits with three walks and seven strikeouts. The biggest blemish was two homers allowed, although 15 of the 24 balls in play off him were grounders.
As you might expect from a relatively anonymous minor leaguer who didn’t break through until he was 26, Dickson doesn’t throw overwhelmingly hard. He does, however, boast enough velocity to get by, working at 89-91 in his lone start and 90-93 in relief. He can add sink or cut to the pitch and gets good plane on it from his 6’5″ frame.
Dickson’s go-to pitch is a power curveball that comes in with plus velocity and break in the 81-84 mph range. Of the 40 he threw in the majors, 25 went for strikes, nine of which were of the swing-and-miss variety. He leans on the pitch quite heavily, throwing it about 1/3 of the time.
Dickson also boasts a solid changeup with good sink that’s about 10 mph slower than his fastball, at 79-81 mph.
The most notable aspect of Dickson’s first few big-league innings, however, is this:
He absolutely pounds the bottom of the zone with all three of his pitches, which explains why 15 of the 24 balls in play off him were grounders. It’s rare to see a pitcher live this exclusively in the bottom of the zone. Compare that strike-zone plot to that of, say, the Braves’ Jonny Venters, who led MLB with a ridiculous 72.5% groundball rate:
In sum, Dickson has some very real skills. He keeps the ball down to a fault, and his breaking ball is a legitimate plus pitch. His fastball and changeup are also workable. He works downhill, throws strikes, and has a durable frame. Overall, that seems like a perfect fourth or fifth starter–pretty much the definition of a pitcher who won’t necessarily blow the other team away, but will keep his club in just about every ballgame he pitches.
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