Many popular opinions of pitching prospects are formed from general scouting reports. While these reports are invaluable resources, they can’t always be trusted. Hundreds of minor league hurlers are credited with “mid-90′s velocity,” but very few MLB starters actually have that grade of heat, for example. It’s incredibly frustrating to hear about a pitcher with “a mid-90′s heater and plus curve,” only to have him come up to the big leagues and show a fastball that averages 90.5 mph and a slider.
When a pitcher come up to the majors, we can finally get a foolproof reading on what exactly his arsenal is comprised of, thanks to the great Pitch F/X system. In this series, I analyze just that–the “stuff” of recently-promoted MLB pitchers. Now that they’ve achieved their big league dreams and thus factor directly into the MLB picture, it’s high time that we know exactly what these guys are providing.
This time, I’m taking a look at Cubs reliever John Gaub.
John Gaub has been on the radar an awfully long time for someone who made his debut in 2011. He first came to prominence as one of the top lefty relief prospects in the minors in 2008 with the Indians’ Low-A affiliate, striking out 100 batters in just 64 innings. That made him part of the Cleveland/Chicago Mark DeRosa trade following that season, and Gaub rose up through Double-A in 2009 with nearly-as-excellent rates.
However, the lefty stalled out in Triple-A the last two seasons; he continued to get big K numbers but couldn’t cut his walks to a reasonable level. He struck out 38 and walked 25 in 29 frames last season, and posted a marginally better 75/40 ratio in 55 1/3 innings this year.
At age 26, Gaub basically is what he is, so the Cubs gave him a September look; the lefty walked two and struck out three in 2 2/3 innings, allowing two runs on two hits.
Watching him pitch, it’s pretty easy to see why Gaub walks so many guys: he has a maximum-effort delivery and throws a ton of sliders. A breaking pitch, due to its movement, is always going to be tougher to consistently spot than a fastball, not to mention that much of a slider’s appeal is that it can get batters to think it’s in the zone and then fall out of the zone. These mechanics don’t help.
Well, actually, that’s not entirely fair. Gaub’s windup, which starts slowly before exploding toward the plate in a confusing mass of limbs, is no doubt deceptive, and it plays a role in his ability to pile up the strikeouts. Relying more heavily on the slider–usually a good whiff-inducing pitch–than the fastball also helps.
Gaub throws the slider slightly over half the time. It’s usually in the 82-87 mph range, but he dialed a few down into the 70s just to give batters a different look with the pitch. It doesn’t have huge movement, but it breaks late and sharp, and it’s a very effective pitch. He induced six whiffs in just 28 sliders in his brief big league time, but just 15 overall were strikes–that pretty much sums up his high-walk/high-strikeout approach. It’s easy to see that he buries the pitch in or near the dirt much of the time:
Look on the bright side–he’s not going to be allowing many extra-base hits with those locations.
Gaub’s slider is certainly adept at missing bats, but its wayward locations put a ton of pressure on the lefthander to get his fastball in for strikes. He does have some heat–he worked at 89-94 mph in his brief big league stint–so his high slider usage is by choice and not force.
His fastball has explosive late movement up in the zone, making it a nice complement to all the low sliders. He wasn’t afraid to throw it anywhere in or out of the zone, though, in his brief MLB time:
Interestingly, Gaub’s fastball miss bats as well–five of the 24 he threw went for swinging strikes. Overall, 15 went for strikes, which is competent but doesn’t really offset the slider.
It’s tough to know what to make of Gaub. He’s got the plus slider, and it’s not too much of a stretch to call his fastball plus as well, at least when it’s used as an offspeed offering to complement the slider. Still, though, this is a pitcher who looks like he’s going to have serious walk issues his whole career–he’ll be 27 in April, after all, so he’s just about in his prime.
Kept to NL situational work against lefties, against whom his deception plays up, he might be able to hang around as that guy a team calls in to face Chase Utley and Ryan Howard with two runners on in the seventh. The control issues make him a very limited pitcher, though, and one who’s going to be in danger of demotions every time he hits a three-outing rough patch.
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