Year of the Breakout: Alex Gordon

Hall of Famer George Brett tabbed him to be the next great Royals third baseman after working with Alex Gordon, and he even indicated that Gordon is a more talented hitter. None of us believed the latter remark, but Gordon was a top prospect. He has shown us that MLB players do need an adjustment period and time to develop, and a lot of Gordon’s previous struggles were due to a low BABIP. Thankfully, the Royals kept on believing in this guy, and he broke out in a big way last season.

There hasn’t been much doubt that Alex Gordon can play well in the field and provides value on the bases, but he wasn’t fulfilling his potential with the stick. This was mainly due to a high strikeout to walk ratio that has only slightly decreased, but he has made it less of a negative factor. The big problem with Gordon was that the power just wasn’t there, as he never had an ISO of .175 (let alone .200).

Fortunately, things changed in 2011, and the increase in power has driven his breakout. He hit 23 homers with an even more impressive 45 doubles (extra-base power is important too). The problem, however, is the question of luck. And man, was Air Gordon one lucky hitter last season.

2011 was a year of contrast for Alex Gordon, and it was definitely for the better. What plagued him in the past was a really low BABIP, so he has regressed to the mean as far as career averages go after a .358 outburst last season. His stellar 141 wRC+ (7th in the AL) that drove his MVP candidacy was largely based on this unreal BABIP mark. Now, this doesn’t indicate impending doom for Gordon in the following seasons, but I wouldn’t expect his triple slash (.303/.376/.502) to be that good.

The Royals’ front office definitely had a great season, and they really helped out themselves- and Alex Gordon- by moving the so-so defensive third baseman to left field. The results have been very good, as his play in left earned him a 10.5 UZR on the season. Most of that comes on the strength of his arm, as his range is only average at best.

When looking at some of the scouting numbers, it is apparent that Alex Gordon isn’t getting fooled by breaking balls as much as he used to. He has always been a good fastball hitter, but pitchers could get the better of him with sliders especially. He’s turned that around and is a much better hitter for it. More importantly, however, is the fact that Gordon’s contact rate increases every year. Air Gordon has also traded off some fly balls for grounders (helping out his BABIP) and is also hitting fly balls with far more authority than he used to (the significant increase in power previously alluded to).

Not only was Alex Gordon a breakout star, but he was also an MVP candidate this season. Just take a look at his 6.9 WAR that was good for seventh in the American League. I expect him to be a 4-5 WAR player for pretty much the rest of his career, and I would also expect a few more of these seasons to be sprinkled around in there.

There are players who breakout every season in baseball, but Alex Gordon’s recent breakout is one of the most noteworthy in recent memory. This is a guy who was dubbed as a failed prospect before finally developing the power he was supposed to have displayed a couple of years ago. The Royals should be very happy with how they managed him and will reap the rewards accordingly as he hits his prime.