Harvesting Opinion is a regular feature on Seedlings to Stars. Each week, a handful of FanSided’s MLB sites send S2S a question relating to their team’s minor league system, and we answer them in this space–each question gets one article devoted to answering it. In this way, we make sure we regularly get to discuss hot-button issues relating to the systems of every team, as we cover the teams in a regular, recurring cycle.
In this edition, we tackle a question sent to us from our Baltimore Orioles site Birds Watcher:
Ryan Adams got some playing time at the end of last season and looked decent at the plate and average defensively. Do you think he’ll get more playing time in Baltimore during the 2012 season, perhaps while splitting time with a more experienced guy like Robert Andino? What are your thoughts on some of the other Orioles 2B prospects?
Nathaniel says:
It does seem that the extreme defensive nightmares of Ryan Adams’ past are behind him—he looked nothing like the player who made 52 errors in 2008 (including 46 in just 96 games at 2B!). Adams is indeed probably an average defensive second baseman at this point, which was unfathomable just a couple of years ago and is a testament to his work ethic.
Will he get more playing time in 2012? I don’t see why not—it’s not like Baltimore is gearing up to contend, so they might as well see what they have in the young second baseman, who turns 25 in April.
Will he do much with that playing time? I’m skeptical. Adams struck out 103 times in 94 Triple-A games last year, walking just 30. Sometimes, guys who can’t control the strike zone look superficially good in their first MLBexposure because pitchers will challenge them nearly every at-bat; once they prove they have some strength, the pitchers start nibbling more and the hitter’s weak grasp of the strike zone gets exposed. I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s what ends up happening here—after his decent performance down the stretch in ‘11, Adams isn’t going to be sneaking up on people in 2012.
Furthermore, what success he did have in the majors in 2011 was almost entirely a batting-average-driven phenomenon, as he slugged just .326. He has more power than that, as his decent minor league power numbers attest, but his high strikeout rate almost assures that his average will probably drop a fair bit once pitchers have seen him a few times. He obviously has yet to show the power that would make him playable while hitting .250.
As for the Orioles’ other second base prospects…there’s not much to say unless you count Jonathan Schoop as a second baseman. Schoop’s an undeniably gifted player—he ranked #86 on my Top 100 Prospects, and I’ve seen him ranked in similar spots on many other lists—but he played second, third, and short in 2011, and it’s unclear which of the positions he’ll stick at. It probably won’t be short, since Manny Machado’s there, and he didn’t play well at third in his limited time, so second would seem to be the logical option…but he’ll have to prove he can handle that position in the long run as well—if he can’t polish up his defense at either second or third, he may have to move to the corner outfield.
A similar fate befell LJ Hoes, the other player who was considered a good 2B prospect in the O’s organization before the season. Exclusively a second baseman prior to 2011, he spent most of his time in left field this year. His bat profiled well at second, but as a left fielder he’s nothing special.
Double-A second baseman Greg Miclat stole 50 bases this year (in just 53 attempts, too), which makes him somewhat interesting, but he has basically no power, with just 21 extra-base hits in 120 games this year. The 24-year-old might make for a nifty utility player/pinch-runner, but he’s not starter material any more than Adams is.
Ultimately, I think that Schoop is the only player here who has a chance at ultimately being a better starter than Andino was in 2011, as the others all have one crippling flaw. With Adams, it’s contact. With Hoes, it’s defense. With Miclat, it’s power. While Schoop’s future position is undecided right now, the 20-year-old’s excellent bat could make him a good starting second baseman even if his defense at the position is below average; hopefully, he can improve defensively as much as Adams has, because he could be a true impact player if he overcomes his deficiencies on that side of the ball.
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Wally says:
The Orioles are an interesting organization from the standpoint that heading into the 2011 season 5 of their Top-10 prospects, according to Baseball America, were middle infielders. But that can be a bit deceiving. Obviously Manny Machado (#1) isn’t likely to move off SS, and Nathaniel already mentioned that L.J. Hoes (#4) spent most of the year playing OF. 2009 2nd-round pick Mychal Givens (#7) fared “okay” in his 74 game stint in the New-York Penn League (A-), but that came after a demotion from the South Atlantic League (A) where he was massively disappointing for 57 games. That leaves Ryan Adams (#8) and Jonathan Schoop (#10) as the two most viable prospect options at 2B.
Of course, Schoop just reached High-A this season and while he did play 64 games at 2B, he also logged 43 games at SS and another 23 at 3B. He’s a ways away and his position long-term is still up in the air.
What’s not up in the air is that Ryan Adams did everything he could in 2011 to insert himself into the team’s plans in 2012 and beyond. With some minor fluctuations, the O’s 2nd round pick in the 2006 draft, has carried essentially the same slash stats with each of the last 4 seasons he’s advanced through the minors.
2008 – Delmarva Shorebirds (A): 0.308/.367/.462 in 119 G
2009 – Frederick Keys (A+): 0.288/.349/.381 in 59 G
2010 – Bowie Baysox (AA): 0.298/.365/.464 in 134 G
2011 – Norfolk Tides (AAA): 0.284/.341/.454 in 94 G
2011 – Baltimore Orioles: 0.281/.333/.326 in 29 G
That’s a pretty consistent track record given the typical fluctuations in performance based on leagues, park factors and other variables. He’s clearly capable of adapting and making adjustments and that’s a good thing when considering his long term role.
As Nathaniel mentioned, his SLG at the major league level should go up as he gets more familiar with the level of competition, so that drop off isn’t much of a red flag for me. I do, however, have concerns with regard to his plate discipline. Nathaniel referenced his SO-to-BB rate specific to his time in Triple-A but it is a long standing problem that has followed him throughout his career—at least since he advanced past rookie ball. In 513 career games in the minors, he’s now struck out 476 times while walking just 173. That works out to an average of 2.75 SO for every 1 walk. While we can forgive his 25-6 rate in his cameo in Baltimore, given the small sample size, there is little reason to expect a significant improvement in that area.
Adams has been relatively consistent across multiple levels, and he’s been able to do so despite less-than-ideal plate discipline skills for a middle infielder. However that consistency works against him in some ways as there is little reason to anticipate he will take a significant step forward or be a better player than what he has shown to date. He is the player that he has appeared to be over the last 5 seasons. Given some legit playing time, I can see Adams offering the Orioles a slash line of 0.280/.340/.440 at his best.
There is also the defensive side of the equation to consider. Nathaniel mentioned that Adams has elevated that part of his game, and it’s true, but to suggest he’s reached the point of being average defensively is going a bit too far for my liking. He still has issues in the field and the early returns—in terms of the metrics and the eye test—in Baltimore were not all that impressive. He’s no longer a butcher in the field, but he’s far from reliable and far from average.
Is his total package playable at the major league level? Absolutely, but it’s not so playable that you slot him in as your starting 2B year after year and turn your attention elsewhere.
For a team like Baltimore, given where they are in their development cycle, playing a guy like Adams over Robert Andino should be an absolute no brainer. Andino is far from a plate discipline whiz himself – he was actually worse in terms of SO-to-BB in his minor league career – and at 27 is three years older than Adams. If the O’s are going to choose between the two, it makes sense to go with the younger guy that has a slightly better skillset and a better chance of being a part of the organization down the road. The only drawback to taking Adams over Andino is the former can’t play SS and has very limited minor league experience beyond 2B.
Of course, Brian Roberts is still under contract for another 2 seasons and his concussion problems, last I checked, shouldn’t be career ending. That aside, two concussions in two years makes his status a great unknown and Adams does provide a nice insurance policy.
He may fall flat on his face, but if called upon to hold down the 2B position for a couple years, I think Ryan Adams can get the job done. He’s not the long term “set it and forget it” solution at the position but Baltimore could do far worse.
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