Many popular opinions of pitching prospects are formed from general scouting reports. While these reports are invaluable resources, they can’t always be trusted. Hundreds of minor league hurlers are credited with “mid-90′s velocity,” but very few MLB starters actually have that grade of heat, for example. It’s incredibly frustrating to hear about a pitcher with “a mid-90′s heater and plus curve,” only to have him come up to the big leagues and show a fastball that averages 90.5 mph and a slider.
When a pitcher come up to the majors, we can finally get a foolproof reading on what exactly his arsenal is comprised of, thanks to the great Pitch F/X system. In this series, I analyze just that–the “stuff” of recently-promoted MLB pitchers. Now that they’ve achieved their big league dreams and thus factor directly into the MLB picture, it’s high time that we know exactly what these guys are providing.
This time, I’m taking a look at Royals reliever Kelvin Herrera.
Touted by several different outlets as “the best relief prospect in baseball” following the 2011 season, Kelvin Herrera opened the season as an afterthought in A-ball before blowing through three levels with a 70/15 K/BB ratio in 67 2/3 innings with a 1.60 ERA. He turns just 22 on New Year’s Eve, so he’s quite young, and he’s just about ready for the majors after absolutely dominating Double-A hitters and holding his own in the Pacific Coast League.
Herrera certainly doesn’t look the part of an intimidating closer, as he’s generously listed at 5’10”, but that impression goes out the window the second you see his fastball. In his very brief (two-inning) MLB exposure this September, Herrera fired the pitch at 94-98 mph, averaging a shade over 96.
As many young power relievers (and old power relievers, for that matter) are wont to do, Herrera showed a proclivity for elevating the fastball:
We can see that a few of those heaters got away from him up and arm-side, which one could attribute either to debut yips or a tendency to drag his arm in his delivery a bit. Herrera lands on a rather stiff plant leg, which causes that effect, and one also has to wonder how he’ll hold up throwing so hard with those mechanics, as they put a lot of pressure on his arm to generate that sort of velocity–his small stature doesn’t help.
Beyond that, Herrera looks like the real deal. He showed an occasional curveball and changeup in his debut, and both pitches look intriguing. The changeup came in an average of 13 mph slower than his fastball and had about seven inches of sink compared to the heater. The curveball showed impressive two-plane break without getting loopy, as it came in around 80 mph.
The only other problem is that he seems to use different arm slots for his three offerings:
We’ll see if hitters can pick up on that difference, but Herrera’s stuff is so good it’ll likely mitigate that effect. He may need a few more refinements with his locations, but he has a history of throwing strikes in the minors, so we’re talking about a potentially elite relief pitcher as long as his arm holds up.
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