AL Cy Young Debate

Yes, there actually is a debate in the American League for the Cy Young winner, because everybody’s favorite advanced metric (WAR) has CC Sabathia rated higher than Justin Verlander by .1. However, .1 is basically a push and doesn’t constitute an automatic “win”. But by the same token, a “push” in WAR tells us that Verlander shouldn’t just run away with the Cy Young. I mean, there’s a reason why this all-encompassing metric rates them on an equal level.

The MLB 2K12 cover athlete trumps Sabathia with the sexy stats (K/9, BB/9, and ERA) but CC holds the advantage in FIP, xFIP, GB%, and WAR. The reason being is that Verlander was pretty lucky, as Sabathia was unlucky. Sabathia’s BABIP was .318 to Verlander’s unreal .236. A reason for this is that Sabathia had a surprisingly high line drive rate, whilst Verlander’s was under 18 percent. This gap in line drive rate, however, does not make up for a .082 difference in BABIP at all.

WAR adjusts for ballpark, but the difference between Yankee Stadium and Comerica Park isn’t wide as far as runs favoring (uh, not favoring) the pitcher. Yankee Stadium is the 6th friendliest park for hitters per ESPN’s Park Factors, whilst Comerica is 9th. The difference is rather miniscule, but I would like to note that Comerica is the 14th “best” for home runs allowed. Yankee Stadium? 4th. This tells us that Sabathia’s 8.4 HR/FB rate to Verlander’s 8.8 HR/FB ratio should actually be wider if he adjust for park factors.

From a scouting perspective, Verlander is the better pitcher with his 95 mph fastball and nasty curve and change. Sabathia’s no slouch either with a fastball that average about 94 miles per hour, arguably the best slider in baseball, and a changeup that fools almost everybody. The crazy thing is that CC wasn’t at his best this season, and yet he still led the AL in WAR.

According to the statistics O-Swing% and Contact%, Sabathia has been able to consistently improve his ability to get hitters to chase and to mitigate their ability to put ball to bat. In these two important statistical categories, it is the unlucky- compared to Verlander- Sabathia who comes away victorious.

Both Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia are two elite pitchers, but both are very different. It’s like in the NL Cy Young race: Kershaw overpowers, Halladay prevents. The same can be said for Verlander and Sabathia respectively. In the NL, I chose Doc over Kershaw; but I have a differing view for the AL Cy Young winner.

It may seem like I am contradicting the entire purpose of this post by choosing Verlander over Sabathia, but the point isn’t to glorify Sabathia. No, it’s to show that we can’t vote somebody over hype and vanilla stats. Sabathia and Verlander have had equally great seasons, but I am going to choose Verlander for the sole fact that his pitches were just working better this year. Although Sabathia did not allow as much- that’s probably the main goal- Verlander wasn’t exactly getting burned either. It’s a tough call, and Sabathia’s season isn’t done justice by all those who unanimously vote Verlander as the Cy Young winner.