Los Angeles Dodgers sign Chris Capuano
The Los Angeles Dodgers are continuing their small free agent signings with their most recent addition. The Dodgers have given oft-injured starting pitcher Chris Capuano $10 million over two seasons, and this is a little too much money for a subpar starter who will start in the back of the rotation. It isn’t a terrible deal by any stretch of the imagination, but it seems as if the Dodgers are paying a little too much for marginal players this offseason. I would rather have Hiroki Kurado than both Juan Rivera and Capuano, and, on a side note, Capuano will be the 40th player on the team’s 40 man roster.
$5 million dollars a year isn’t much, but Capuano is really a 1 WAR pitcher because of his injury risk. He has had Tommy John surgery twice in his career, and it’s hard not to feel bad for a guy who had a promising career derailed by these injuries. I honestly hope that Chris Capuano returns to his previous 3.9 WAR form in 2006, but this is definitely not going to happen. However, it is plausible to think that Capuano could end up being a decent starter worth 1.5 WAR when fully healthy.
If Capuano is indeed a 1 WAR pitcher, then the Dodgers gave a little too much for him. While they barely overpaid, and it seems like nitpicking, 1 WAR is worth about $4.5 million. I mean, Capuano should be a decent pitcher to plug in at the back of the rotation, and that last phrase is key. He is really just a subpar pitcher who gives up far too many home runs to really be anything more than a No. 4 starter at his best.
Last season, Capuano had a 4.04 FIP, a 3.67 xFIP, and a 4.55 ERA. His peripherals (8.13 K/9 and 2.56 BB/9) were nice, but I think his strikeout rate regresses to his career average of around seven. His fastball is a hair below 88 miles per hour, and his career K/9 average is 7.54. About 12% of the fly balls he has allowed in his career have turned into home runs, and this really doesn’t instill much confidence. Capuano gives up 1.28 HR/9, and that’s far too many for a pitcher in the Bigs. He was unlucky last season, but nobody will ever mistake him for a league-average pitcher. I really thought he should have received two years and $8.5 million instead, but again, the difference isn’t that much. The Dodgers don’t exactly have an enviable ownership position either, and we can only hope that their savior comes soon, wielding a wad of cash and a mind filled with dedication.
The Dodgers aren’t really even asking him to be league-average; they’re just asking him to be worth around 1.3 WAR in a season. He was worth 1.6 WAR last season, and he could definitely be worth 1.5 WAR if healthy over a full season. However, that is a big “if”, as the last time he pitched 75 innings was in 2007 (coincidentally the last time he was worth 1 WAR). This isn’t a bad risk, but there really is no reward to sap out of this deal. I am happy that Chris Capuano is continuing to get opportunities, but I really don’t trust the guy to hold up over an entire season. I wish they gave him a little less money and had incentives for reaching a certain number of innings (he has the chance to make an additional $1 million in incentives in the current deal). The Dodgers wanted a back of the rotation starter, and they got their man. Unfortunately, they didn’t exactly get a good deal off and have now overcrowded their rotation with southpaws. Yeah, they should have re-signed Kuroda instead.